Chiefs: Why This Weekend Matters in the AFC

Laddie Morse

It’s not enough to say that the Kansas City Chiefs need to beat the Denver Broncos when they visit Arrowhead Stadium this weekend, but almost every game in the AFC this weekend will go a long way towards shaping the way the playoffs look. Here’s a peek at this weekend’s schedule with a focus on any team in the AFL:

On Thursday, the Cowboys beat the Saints, but those are both NFC teams and that’s not what we’re focusing on here today. Now, let’s take a look at the current AFC playoff picture before highlighting how each game impacts that picture.

To the right, you can see which teams would travel to play a game on the road, and the team they’d play… currently… in the AFC. Also, for now… Baltimore owns the rights to the AFC first round Bye. New England would host the Chargers, the Titans would host the Bills and K.C. would host the Bengals. For now.

I’m not going to entertain the idea that a 5-win team could make the playoffs – for now – because there are four other 6-win teams on this list who could end up visiting Arrowhead in January if things fall their way the remainder of the year, beginning with this weekend. So let’s take a look at some scenarios.

Games That Matter Most

Baltimore (8-3) at Pittsburgh (5-5-1)

First of all, the Ravens are on the road in Pittsburgh and although Baltimore is at the top of the conference, at the moment, if the Steelers buckle up and buckle down at home versus a rival, the Ravens could be on their way down this list. The Steelers may win this game but they are not projected to have a winning season. Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic has predicted that Pittsburgh will have their first losing season record under Mike Tomlin. The first in 14 season as a ahead coach. Expectation: a Steelers win at home. Playoff Expectations: Baltimore is in, Steelers are out.

Note: Actually, I’m “Hoping” the Steelers beat the Ravens and this may be the first time EVER that I have hoped a Steelers team would win.

New England (8-4) at Buffalo (7-4)

The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills. The Pats rookie QB, Mac Jones, has looked more Brady-esk as the year has progressed and the rest of the team looks like “The Team to Beat” in the AFC right now. This one is for the lead in the AFC East. Expectations: Patriots win, Bills are the Bills we’ve come to know these past ten years and Josh Allen is not enough because the Bills have a limited running game. Also, All Pro CB Tre White (who the Bills selected with the 27th pick in the 2017 draft, a pick they traded for the 10th pick overall, when the Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes II) is done for the season with an ACL. About the team missing Tre White, Bills HC Sean MCDermott said this week: “… collectively as a team, we’ve got to take our game another level.” However, there is no collectively” accounting for the loss of White and McDermott knows that. Playoff Expectations: Pats are in and so is Buffalo as a Wild Card team.

Los Angeles (6-5) at Cincinnati (7-4)

The Chiefs main competition in the AFC West is the Chargers, who travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. If they win and K.C. loses, then the Chiefs will lose their grip on the West in the AFC. However, there’s a better than good chance that the opposite happens this weekend as the Bengals have won their last two games by a combined score of 73-to-23 and appear to be hitting their stride. The Chargers started out the year with high expectations, as usual, as they began the season 4-and-1, but have gone 2-and-4 in their past six games with a combined score of 177-to-131 (or an average of: 29.5-to-21.8). The possibility that they right the ship on the road against a young and rising team seems less likey. Expectations: Chargers lose. Playoff Expectations: Chargers miss the playoffs… for the third straight year.

Indianapolis (6-6) at Houston (2-9)

The Colts go to Houston to take on the Texans in a divisional contest of no consequence to the divisional title for the Texans. If the Colts continue to play some top notch football, I see no reason why they won’t win this one. RB Jonathan Taylor is a marvel and I wanted the Chiefs to take him as he was taken in the second (2^nd) round of the 2020 draft, nine picks after K.C. took Clyde Edwards-Helaire. With Taylor bolstering Indy’s running game, owning the 3^rd best rushing attack in the league, and the Texans having a 30^th best (worst?) run defense, the Colts should win going away. That should also open things wide for QB Carson Wentz, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr. and the rest of their aerial crew. Expectations: Indy all the way. Playoff Expectations: Texans are headed for the top of the 2022 draft while Indy could squeeze into the bottom of the AFC bracket this year.

Chiefs Best Case Scenarios

If the Patriots get beat by Buffalo… and the Steelers beat the Ravens… and the Bengals take care of the Chargers… then, Kansas City would be tied with the Bills atop the conference but since the Bills have beaten the Chiefs in head-to-head competition, the Bills would have the tie breaker. So, why even hope that this is the case? Because the Bills appear to have a tougher remaining schedule than the Patriots and while the Pats are a rising team, the Bills look like a sinking one. Which just may mean, if the Bills lose on Sunday vs the Pats, they’re season is sunk.

The Chiefs wish to host another Lamar Hunt game — the AFC Conference Final — and no one in Chiefs Kingdom wants to visit Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts on the way to a third straight Super Bowl appearance. So, of all the games this weekend, I’m most hoping for a Bills win.

What’s your take? What’s your wish(s)?

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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LadnerMorse