Chiefs Wide Receiver Projections

Laddie Morse

The Kansas City Chiefs Wide Receiver position has been described as the Elephant in the Room… more specifically, the weakest link on the Chiefs roster. When the NFL Trade Deadline rolled around, everyone was talking about a possible trade for a WR, everyone excet the people who would make that trade. IOW, the wrong people. The Chiefs powers that be, were making a statement: we believe in the WRs we have and we’re going with what we’ve got. While that may be the case — this year — David Bell and I have have plenty of conversations about who might be a priority in the 2024 NFL draft and Wide Reveiver always comes out as a distinct possibility in the first three rounds.

The following table shows the Chiefs current WR group, how many catches they had and what they have gained so far in the 2023 campaign (in yellow). The Chart is based upon the WR group producing a 1,000 yard pass catcher but, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen this year. There’s a lot of talk about what the trade for Tyreek Hill has brought to the Chiefs (defensively)… while Tyreek Hill already has 1,076 receiving yards this season…

.

.

.

Notes on the Chart:

• Projections – are based upon a formula –> total yards gain divided by 9 (the number of games played so far this season), then multiplied by 17 (the total number of games in this season). The numbers at the top of each green section are the projected totals based upon the already established numbers each WR has had this season.

• Mecole Hardman – The light blue behind Hardman’s production is based upon his abbreviated time in K.C. (3 games). Also, he only had one catch earlier this season for the Jets for a total of six yards. The different colored background for him is because we have no idea how much to project him for. However, he gained 36 yard per game in his time in K.C. previously so production SHOULD be around another 288 yards this half-season (in the regular season).

• Skyy Moore may have a breakout second half… who knows. I predicted Moore would be the WR#1 by the end of his rookie season. Didn’t happen. Not even close. Even considering his Super Bowl catch, his rookie year was a non-plussed year. Here’s the one shining moment from the Super Bowl (0:09):

.

.

• Rashee Rice may be that rookie who breaks out for the Chiefs in his first season. He already has 378 yards and projects to 714 at his current pace. I can see him making his move to validate every wish the team and the Kingdom has for him.

.

.

I agree with Eddie High here, that rashee Rice can be the best WR on the team, sooner rather than later.

• Kadarius Toney is another WR who is hard to project. I’m sure if you asked Andy Reid (and if he’d actually tell you) what Toney’s role and production will be the rest of the year, he’d say he’s going to be a #1 WR and gain 1,000 yards (by average). However, Toney has gained a total of 718 yards in his 20 games in the NFL so far, and even if Andy Reid is holding him back because of a knee surgery in July, he’s still holding him back. “Holding a player back”… that has to be frustrating for the player, right? Like Skyy Moore, he had an incredible TD in the Super Bowl, but I’m thinking that could be more due to his coaches calling the right play at the right time. I also suspect the Chiefs keep Toney around because he has a great juke move (0:06):

.

.

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling – is not what we hoped he’d be either. His 249 yards so far this season is far below expectations except, his 17.8 yards per catch is second on the team to only Justin Watson. He signed a three year deal just last year for $30M with $15M guaranteed. I expect him to be around another year even at his current pace. As Terez Paylor used to say, “The contract year is undefeated” and I expect the 2024 season to be the best of MVS career. MVS has 16 TDs in his career but only one this season.

• Justin Watson – Watson’s 19.7 yards per reception would qualify him for second in the league behind just Noah Brown of the Texans, but his total number of catches isn’t high enough to register. The reason he is still around is that he has 4.39 – 40 speed and can get deep when he wants to. Since we know QB Patrick Mahomes is ALWAYS looking ot go deep… viola!

.

Summary

At some point, the Chiefs will have to make some decisions about all their non-productive Wideouts. So far, they’ve decided to stick with who they have on their roster. I’m a little bit like David Bell and think they should have made a move for DeAndre Hopkins. Is Hopkins still a top 10 WR? Not according to many outlets, but he has sure-fire hands and runs hot-routes to get open and that’s exactly what PMII needs.

.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

.