Chiefs: Winning Super Bowl LVI in the Year of the Cap Space Massacre

I don’t know how much you have thought about it yet. Brett Veach and Co are in their constant over-time effort and will be there for the next two months or so.

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We are waiting on 2 events, both revolving around dates and numbers.

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We wait on Free Agency…. and then we’ll wait on the draft.

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After that, it’ll be mini-camp, rookie camp, S/T Camp and we’ll have to see if they play preseason games. Finally Opening day will arrive six months from now and the hopes of the fans and players will crest as the Chiefs take the field for the first game in the 2021 season.

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I do not have any doubt that the Chiefs will get to the postseason with a shot at the Lombardi once again. Today, I’m covering ground that must be covered in order for the team to get to their goal again.

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Significant Factors

The first item will tell you a bunch about who is being retained and who is being released for each of the 32 teams. The second item will tell us what the official 2021 Team Cap space is going to be. Item 1 will depend on Item 2.

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• The 2020 Team Cap Money was set at $198.2M, but 2021 is anticipated to be about $185M.
• Advent of the 17 Game Season (increased NFL Revenue).
• The Upcoming mega-media deal with Disney, this is why I think the Cap may be more in the range of $190M.
• The Pandemic – No one knows all the answers but, now there are 3 vaccines available, plus “Herd Immunity.“

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I anticipate, unscientifically, that the Covid-19 menace will essentially not exist in 2021’s season. Which might tell us more about the camps as summer comes on and also preseason games, which were missing in 2020.

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RIght now? We do know the projected cap to be about $185M. That is a $13M drop from the 2020 Cap. There are dependencies that will effect this. One thing I want note is the NFLPA is fighting to retain as high a cap as possible. That is probably the biggest reason that the Cap estimates rose from what had been about $175M a few weeks ago. Then about 3 weeks ago it was raised to an anticipated amount of about $180M. This is more than 7% below the 2021 Cap. Where do the Chiefs stand in regard to Cap Space? We are nearly $20M over the Cap. I still think the Cap will not come close to meeting the previous seasons value, Which makes me aware of…

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The Upcoming NFL Massacre

If you are reading this, you at least follow the Chiefs, and probably a lot of what goes on around the NFL. You may or may not follow the team or NFL Football 365 days a year. However, I anticipate that you understand what I mean by NFL Massacre. NFL Teams will have less 2021 dollars to spend than last season. This means that a slew of Veterans will hit the free agency market. This includes Chiefs players too. Right now the Chiefs have 58 players under contract. They have tons of work to do and they are also dealing with the fact that they are about $20M over the cap, as it stands today.

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Dianna Russini@diannaESPN Tweeted on March 3rd, the following addressing her text exchange with an unnamed NFL Head Coach who responded in her tweeted remarks about what he expects:

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“It’s going to be a massacre next week all around the league.”

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That remarks nails it.

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Earlier this week I listed the Chiefs Free 2021 Free Agents and who it was I thought would be retained and who are going to be a Free Agent, of one kind or another. In addition to those players, I’m also going to tell you that there are players under contract who will be cut. The team has a total week-to-week roster of 53 men. It also carried 12 players on that list in 2020 but in 2021 the number is 14 players on the Practice Squad.

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The PS was once aptly named “The Taxi Squad” and may need to revert back to that identity since a phone call and a cab ride brought a non-roster player to the locker-room for the next game. In 2020 we saw players moved up and down due to injury or need. This was allowed due to rules changes which came into effect during the Covid-19 outbreak. I hope the NFL continues to allow the movement from PS to Active Roster as it is working today.

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Still the effect, league wide, of having many roster players cut due to the reduced cap remains a concern at One Arrowhead Way and at all 31 other franchise HQ’s, but it also provides opportunity for Brett Veach, Andy Reid and all the staff because to fill needs in the draft is going to create a situation where a good player at one of the positions of need must be part of the acquisitions made.

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What GM Brett Veach Said About the Cap

In an interview, when asked about the Chief’s cap situation, Brett responded:

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“…it’s certainly not ideal, but I would say that probably half the league is in the same boat, so I think there will be some unusual cuts made within the next few weeks.”

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In another interview he observed that the focus of the Chiefs had to be upon the Offensive Line, The Defensive Line, and Linebacker. Recent investigations by myself, Laddie Morse and others indicates problems that are facing the Chiefs and what it would take to get back to the Super Bowl.

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Lucas Niang Finally Arrives

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I figured that Niang could arrive with a big impact, but at LOT. Now I am apprised of a totally different scenario. For the past month or more I have been anticipating Niang to the left. Why? Because even though lofty projections abound about Eric Fishers Recovery and Rehab time, I do not believe that projection. If Niang is indeed prepping for ROT, Andy Heck will have a great Right Side of the offensive line, but unless a miracle happens, the Left Side is going to be problem, specifically at LOT.

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If you did not see Laddie Morse’s article on “The Lucas Niang Double Whammy PIckle” please take a peek.

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Eric Fisher’s Achilles Tendon

Pete Sweeney, at ArrowheadPride, provided one view about this in that he observed what he thought might happen is, Fisher goes to the PUP for the first 6 weeks at least. That means no starting LOT for at least that long. I anticipate 10-12 months myself so in effect, I don’t think Fisher plays football in 2021. Could it be somewhere in between? Sure.

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For me, it’s wrong to conclude that Eric Fisher will be the same Eric Fisher he was before the injury. A burst Achilles Tendon invariably sees players never return to the game… and if they do… their performance is never the same. Remember Derrick Johnson after the Achilles? He wasn’t the same, at all. Then he suffered the same injury on the other foot. In my own mind, Eric Fisher will not play football in 2021. Perhaps, never again.

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Okay. I have to buy that this presents a problem for staffing the Offensive Line.

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The Mitch Schwartz Back Scope

The type of back surgery that Mitch had is conceivably, to have a short lived recovery and quick rehab. The anticipation announced is that Mitch will be ready to role by Camp. Because Lucas Niang is in all likelihood going to be the #2 ROT, I am less worried about how well Mitch plays when he returns, or how soon. However, I accept the stated projection and even Mitch’s belief that he will be ready to play by camp. If he falls back out of the lineup again, Niang will be present to take over. If Mitch is Mitch, then we have our very underrated Right Tackle back all season and for the playoffs. I am good with that. Lucas Niang gets a break-in period and can take over as the starter in 2022.

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Okay. I am good with the ROT Tackle being beyond solid.

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The Schwartz/Fisher Caveat

Both Eric Fisher and Mitch Schwartz are over 30 years old. Schwartz had surgery. One particular result could be that neither of them can play football in 2021. Or worse. I am positive that the Brett Veach Blueprint for the Chiefs in 2021 takes this into account. But do you? This is the worst case scenario, but those do indeed happen.

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At least we have Clark Hunt, Brett Veach and Andy Reid and not… Cal McNair, Jack Easterby and Bill O’Brien.

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Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ROG)

The Doc is back to playing football in 2021. If he returns and is ready to rock n’ roll, our ROG is solid. This was a missing factor in 2020 from the start. From what I have been able to uncover, LDT has maintained a PT program all along. What I anticipate? LDT returns to 2018 form.

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The ROG position is handled in my mind at least at an effective level. It would be wonderful if both players will be there in 2021. I can add in Martinas Rankin whose play in 2019 was extremely good substituting for the injured LDT. This gives me a high degree of optimism about the LOG position being “Solid”.

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Nick Allegretti and Kelechi Osemele (LOG)

After Kelechi’s season ended with non-contact injuries to both knees in week 5, Nick Allegretti took over the ROG job. He wasn’t great, but I thought that his play improved week to week. He now has that time to address his game and will have made his advance along the learning curve. Kelechi Osemele, if he can return after two knee surgeries at age 32 would be icing on the cake.

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I really liked having Osemele at LOG. I also take into account Allegretti’s versatility. He can play all three IOL Positions. At this point, the LOG position appears to be a solid two deep position.

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What’s a Man to Do?

Brett Veach’s recent statement tells us what his focus will be: OL, LOT, OC in my view), DL and LB. In my view, that means DT & DE and SLB or WLB — both OLBs — to compliment Willie Gay. Veach, of course, did not state that this would be the order of the draft. He did say that they would likely not be in the Free Agent Market for the first wave of Free Agent signings. He did indicate that such a contributor might be brought aboard after the first and costly group of Free Agent is signed.

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The Veach Positions of Focus

All three Offensive Line positions are needed:

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Offensive Line: LOT, OG, OC

LOT – Brett Veach must address the possibility that Fisher is not going to be ready for football by opening day or perhaps at all. This must weigh heavily on Reid, Veach & Co. Since both OT’s ended the season on the IR, it makes the deliberation a serious topic indeed as both are over 30 and it is not a sure bet that either will be back to form for 2021. Whichever position is filled, the one which I am most concerned about is the LOT. This player, is, in my view, a crucial selection of the 2021 draft for Andy Reid’s front 5 — a player who will be able to start immediately.

OC – Veach named the overall offensive line, but I really want to get the future settled out at Center. I don’t see Austin Reiter as the long term solution. What I fear here is, that they see Reiter as the solution. It can be that I place too much emphasis on Reiter’s numbers last season, merely because his play was affected by so many injuries to other linemen from the outset. What is needed is a tough, feisty Center who is a good front five commander and leader.

OG – This position is less critical than the previous two. Still, many good players are available for selection in rounds 1-3. Whatever we do at this position, they can use Kelechi Osemele as the Blueprint Model at OG. As much as I really like Kelechi’s play for the first 5 games, he did have two surgeries and, he is 32. The Chiefs do have LDT returning to play in 2021. A complement to LDT would be a great young, aggressive, man-moving OG. I am not knocking Nick Allegretti, but if the Chiefs can bring aboard another Guard, it surely would provide depth to the position, which for me is Martinas Rankin. I don’t see Andrew Wylie being offered a new contract.

Defensive Line: DE and DT

DE – A stellar DE to compliment Frank Clark side-to-side. I like what Okafor is capable of… if… the other 3 DL positions are strong. Taco Charlton adds to the threat and might get beyond striving to get there in 2021 and my hope is, for Taco to finally fulfill effort and availability toward his ceiling. At this point, it’s Frank Clark, figure in Mike Danna or, find the right player to man the position to compliment Clark via the draft. It’s my view that this last option is the best path for the future.

DT – Up the middle strength for pass rush to collapse the opposing pocket. To get back to the Super Bowl, Laddie observes that the defensive interior did not pressure Brady up the middle, even with Chris Jones. There are perhaps 2 or 3 DT’s in the 2021 draft that fit the aggressive, mauling DT, but keep in mind we saw that from 3 different teams this past season. When the Chiefs met with the Bucs in the Super Bowl, their IDL ate up the Chiefs blockers and kept Patrick fleeing from the pocket. We need to turn that table against our opponents.

Linebacker: OLB, firstly

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LB – We are set through 2022 with Hitchens at ILB. However, Hitch is a pass defense liability. K.C. needs a top draft pick at Outside Linebacker to become the perfect compliment to Willie Gay. Both positions will then have speed and pass coverage strengths. The Chiefs have a contract with Hitch for 2 more seasons so, adding another ILB now would get that player ready to take over in a similar fashion to Gay’s break-in in 2020.

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Tomorrow we’ll get into 5 moves K.C. needs to make to get back to the Super Bowl, and more. See you then. Go Chiefs!

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David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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