Chiefs WRs: It’s Logjams and Logarithms

by Laddie Morse | May 4, 1029

Logjams: 1. a crowded mass of logs blocking a river, 2. a situation that seems irresolvable

Logarithms: a quantity representing the power to which a fixed number (the base) must be raised to produce a given number.

The Kansas City Chiefs are in need of a fix at the wide receiver position. In fact, “a fixed number must be raised to produce a given number”… in the case of both the RBs and the WRs. Beyond Sammy Watkins, the Chiefs don’t presently appear to have a Dwayne Bowe, an Eddie Kennison or even a Jeremy Maclin on the roster. While Sammy Watkins is the current head honcho of the wideout corp, beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess who will fill in the blanks. That’s why, when it comes to the Chiefs WRs: it’s logjams and logarithms.

The Wide Receivers

First let’s take a peek at the wide receiving corp. This will not be a discussion on Tyreek Hill (What is best for his son is my prayerful concern, and the rest is in the hands of the powers that be). I’m also not going to discuss Sammy Watkins here either, but the designation as the Chiefs #1 WR in 2019 is a given (Even though it would be novel for him to play a full season without injury). That leaves the following WRs to fill in the blanks:

The first stat that jumps out, is the large percentage of UDFAs that will be chosen from, to complete this roster. Only 4 of the 11 WRs has more than one year of experience. It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs carrying more than 6 wideouts on the 53 man roster, so I’ll use that as a guide in this process. Here’s what I’m thinking so far:

1. Sammy Watkins, and obviously, I’m assuming Tyreek Hill won’t be a part of the team in early 2019, which makes Watkins the #1 WR.

2. Demarcus Robinson, who should be WR #2, at least for the beginning of the season, based upon his experience.

3. Mecole Hardman, should get the #3 WR assignment at some point in the year, although, there are others with more experience in Andy Reid’s system who will likely be starting ahead of him to begin with.

Plus three others chosen from this deep UDFA pool including (listed in order of projection),

4. Gehrig Dieter, who gets the nod here simply because he’s got a personal… as well as an on-field… connection with the best player in the league, and the Chiefs QB, Patrick Mahomes.

5. Byron Pringle, was going to make the 53 man roster in 2018 but was hurt in the last game of the preseason, a game in which he gained, 122 yards on 4 catches. Plus, both Dieter and Pringle have the size that Chris Conley once provided to help assist in the run game, blocking downfield. Conley is 6-foot-3, 205 and now plays for the Jaguars.

6. ________________

Number Six is what appears to be up for grabs and the Chiefs have a slew of players who could be that guy. Here are a number of “ifs” and approaches based on those ifs:

A. If the Chiefs go on years of experience, it could be Marcus Kemp, and I have been big on Kemp in the Chiefs previous two training camps. At 6-foot-4 Kemp could be a red zone target and I’ve seen him make some highlight reel catches. This would be his 3rd year with the Chiefs, Practice Squad in 2017 mostly, 53 man roster last year: 36 offensive snaps in 2018, along with 299 Special Teams snaps.

B. If the Chiefs go based upon height, with the idea of filling a need for elevation in the aerial attack or… offsetting the lack of depth at Tight End… 6-foot-5 Jamal Custis could be the answer. His rare height and speed combination — he runs a 4.50 – 40 yard dash — makes him a good choice. If he were designated as a tight end in this year’s draft, he would have tied for 1st place with the 6-foot-4 Noah Fant and that would have also placed him 5th place among all tight ends, all-time at the combine.

C. If the Chiefs go based on a head for the game, Cody Thompson may be the man. Out of all the WRs in this year’s draft, only Miles Boykin (6.77) and Hunter Rentfrow (6.80) had a better time in the 3-cone drill than Cody Thompson at 6.87. Thompson also has, a ton of experience at the college level — 56 games — and strong hands (and both of those are high-value traits of Andy Reid and Brett Veach). All things considered, he may have an edge on everyone else, if training camp goes well for him.

Special With Special Teams

The way the last man will have to make the team will most certainly be based on his value as a Special Teams player. Someone who can get down the field quickly and make a play consistently, will most likely be the one who locks up the job. The input of ST Coach, Dave Toub, will be a deal breaker for any WR who hopes to make the team here.

Andy Reid’s New Plan of Attack

Each year, Andy Reid adds to his gigantic playbook. This year, we already know that there will be a lot more than a handful of new plays, so it goes to reason that if Reid sees a particular player with a particular skill set, he’s going to write a whole new playbook to utilize that skillset. Looking back over the graph above, 8 out of 9 UDFAs are between 6-foot-2 and 6-foot-5 feet tall. As they say, “You can’t teach speed” but they also say, “You can’t coach height”  and that’s precisely what the Chiefs have gone out and done, acquired tall wideouts who can go up and get the ball. Now, that may only mean that Reid is planning on giving Patrick Mahomes a group of WRs to target who are much bigger targets. However, it could also be a clue as to the kinds of strategies Reid intends to employ when attacking in the red zone.

The Numbers Game

The Chiefs have a number’s game at wide receiver position in 2019. The high quality depth of wideouts they have to choose from is called, having a good problem. It will be one of the most intriguing battles when training camp begins, which is just next month. I’m assuming that Sammy Watkins… the Chiefs 2nd round pick Mecole Hardman… and 4th year man Demarcus Robinson… are all a given. With that being said, and also assuming there will be 6 wide receivers kept on this year’s roster, that leaves three openings. As you can see above, I have also assumed the Chiefs will keep Byron Pringle and Gehrig Dieter… which leaves… one opening. Now, if you’d like to propose a different arrangement of those who might be kept… and those who will be “on the bubble” as they say, please let me know in the comments below.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the Logjams and Logarithms at the Running Back position. Go Chiefs!

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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