Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s Impact on the Chiefs Offense – “With the 32nd pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Running Back, LSU.” When Commissioner Roger Goodell declared the Chiefs first draft pick on that April evening, I wasn’t sure what to think. I must admit I was a proponent of waiting for the second or third round before drafting a running back. In my eyes, there were other positions that had better overall value than using that first-round pick on a running back. I still believe this to be a fact, but there are always exceptions to the rule. I also believe that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is one of these few exceptions and is going to make a serious impact on the Chiefs offense in his rookie campaign.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) is the right fit. He’s the type of guy who just wants to do any and everything he can to help his team win. He protects the ball and puts his hand to the ground to fight for extra yardage. He will catch passes out of the backfield and on the next play will take a blitzing linebacker head on to protect the quarterback. He plays football the right way, and I think he’s going to fit in quite nicely with Patrick Mahomes and company. CEH is the type of player who can make an immediate impact. He also has a lot of similarities in his game with the last Chiefs running back who made an immediate impact.
Kareem Hunt came in to the league in the same year as Patrick Mahomes, 2017. While Mahomes waited on the sideline, Hunt took the league by storm. After a fumble on his first career rushing attempt, he turned it on to help destroy the Patriots (on their banner-hanging night no less) on his way to the 2017 rushing title. I believe Clyde Edwards-Helaire can have that type of year in 2020. Maybe not the rushing title, but anywhere from 750 – 1250 yards rushing with 1250 – 1750 all purpose yards is a reasonable range to expect from him in a full 16-game season. Also, if CEH can protect the ball as well as he did in college, he can make a legitimate and measurable impact on this Chiefs offense from the beginning.
Let’s look at a comparison of Alex Smith’s passing numbers for the year before and after Kareem Hunt became the Chiefs feature back. In 2016, Andy Reid’s feature running back was Spencer Ware, who rushed for 921 yards but only 3 touchdowns. To be fair, he only started 14 games and Charcandrick West 293 yards and 1 TD in the two games he started for a total of 1,214 yards and 4 TDs. Kareem Hunt on the other hand, in 2017, started all 16 games of the regular season and was used as a workhorse. He totaled 1,327 yards rushing with 8 TDs and earned a trip to the Pro Bowl, and yes, these rushing yard totals aren’t that far off, but let’s be honest… Spencer Ware never made anyone nervous to play against, like Hunt did.
In the year with the more dominant running back, Alex Smith showed a marked improvement in his stats. In 2016 with Spencer Ware lining up behind him, Alex Smith threw for 3,502 yards with 15 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. In 2017 however, Alex Smith threw for 4,042 yards and a very impressive 26 TDs to only 5 INTs. In both years, Alex Smith played in the exact same number of games (15) and had an almost identical completion percentage (increase of 0.4% from ’16 to ’17, per Pro Football Reference). Smith also had a majority of the same receiving weapons in 2017 that he had in 2016, so the biggest difference in the offense that year was Kareem Hunt. Obviously there were other factors in play, but it is clear what a dominant running back can do to an offense. Especially Reid’s offense.
If Clyde Edwards-Helaire can bring about a similar spark in offensive production all around like Kareem Hunt did in 2017, imagine the kind of numbers we will see from Mahomes this year. Alex Smith experienced an increase in passing yards by about 15% with Kareem Hunt as opposed to Spencer Ware. A 15% increase in Patrick’s numbers, also when adjusting his stats for a full season — prorating his yards from 14 games to 16 — we are looking at 5,283 yards passing. Smith also threw for 11 additional touchdowns and three fewer interceptions. Interestingly, Mahomes threw for the exact same TD to INT ratio that Alex Smith did in 2017 after his year of marked improvement. So, if Mahomes has a similar progression, we would be talking about 37 TDs to only 2 INTs, and that is by adding/subtracting the exact number of TDs/INTs, not using a percentage based projection calculation which would make Mahomes’ TD/INT ratio 45 TDs to 3 INTs. Now, obviously this might not be the most likely of predictions for a season, but at this point would a stat line like this from Mahomes really surprise anyone? 5,000 yards passing with 32 TDs and 3 INTs would most likely be enough for Mahomes to win his second MVP.
Obviously there are about ten million additional variables that come into play when trying to statistically project season stats for players, which is why I am supremely unqualified to do so (and projected a 500-yard range for CEH earlier). All I’m doing is painting a picture for future offensive success. Having a solid running back who can be relied on is so important for teams with high-powered offenses like the Chiefs. Having a solid running back forces defenses to leave more than five or six players in the box. Imagine what Mahomes can do against a defense that has to commit a player to spying Clyde all game? Imagine what Mahomes can do against a defense who routinely has to put eight players near the line of scrimmage on 2nd and 3rd downs in short yardage situations? Mahomes is going to be able to utilize play action way more effectively, and that is going to give our speed guys like Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman time to get 30-40 yards downfield before Mahomes even has to think about getting rid of the football.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to make everyone on this offense look better than they already do.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was easily the most complete and dynamic running back in the 2020 draft class. A lot of people might argue that DeAndre Swift is more dynamic, but he is not even close to the complete package like CEH is. Running… receiving… blocking: Clyde Edwards-Helaire can and will do them all this coming season. Now that Damien Williams has opted out, it’s up to Clyde to lead the Chiefs rushing attack, and I wholeheartedly believe the Chiefs offense is going to be better off because of that 32nd draft pick overall… named Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
David Beck — ArrowheadOne
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