Decisions

Another week of a non-football season is in the books. The NFL remains the undisputed champ of continuous narrative. We got the draft combine, a big contract, and some standard-issue drama. I am not big on the Scouting Combine but may look to fix that next year. Indy is a manageable 5-6 hour drive for me, so securely on the table. My protocol is to get more into the draft a couple of weeks before it happens.

I do have comments on the contract and controversy, so let’s get to those.

Aaron Rodgers Big Decision

I live in Wisconsin, so 12 is all the talk all year. He and the Packers are the bare minimum 3rd story in any sports day. The Bucks won the NBA title, but the Packers still own the State. My initial reaction mirrors Stephen A. Smith’s. This was the only logical ending in my mind, but the closest alternative was retirement. I never pictured a real-world that included Rodgers in a Broncos jersey.

It would be a lie to say I do not feel a sense of relief. I did not find it fun to deal with Peyton Manning twice a year, and this could have returned that era. The difference is this CHIEFS team. They can handle good teams. Rodgers in Denver would not change my prediction that the CHIEFS will win the West again this coming season. However, I feel better about it with him staying in Green Bay.

The biggest story here is an elite passer staying in the NFC where they are thin in that department. It also means the biggest chip is in place. I expect the same level of clarity when the Seahawks end the Russell Wilson movement talks.

The West Gets (More) Crowded

I was typing the last paragraph when the ESPN push came that the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos. Concern of Russ in Denver replaces that Rodgers relief. The Broncos will once again be a threat this season. They also have some work to do with half of their defensive backfield (Kyle Fuller – CB, Kareem Jackson – S, Bryce Callahan – Slot CB) are unrestricted free agents. There is potential for the Denver D to regress, but they finally found the piece at QB. Between this trade and the coaching appointment of former Packer OC Nathaniel Hackett the Broncos are all in on offense.

I believe the AFC just got harder to win. What I do not believe is any passing of any torches occurred. This is still the CHIEFS division and Patrick Mahomes is still the best QB in it. Russell Wilson is great and will make the Broncos a scarier matchup, but he is not the 2-time defending MVP. Football season can go ahead and start now. According to the NFL and their latest in the dominance of headlines it never really stopped.

The Controversy

This comes courtesy of the guy who did the most to ruin my fantasy season, one Calvin Ridley. I believe that sports gambling should be legal in all forms in all states. Throwing a couple bucks on a 5 leg parlay is a fun way to get deeper into the sporting and stat world. The most common result: better invested and informed fans. I do almost zero gambling because it is illegal in Wisconsin and I’m not driving to Illinois to do it. However, I have many friends and family who live there and spend substantial time on Draft Kings, etc. The most frequent is my friend Anthony the Titans fan. He is on that app all the time.

His most common bets are in the $.50-$2 range and include a list of scenarios. Picture an NFL game where these 5 things need to happen for a win:

1. RB on team A scores over 1.5 TD
2. RB on team B rushes for over 69.5 yds
3. QB on team A throws over 2.5TD
4. K on team B make over 2.5 FG
5. EDGE on team A has over 1.5 sacks

A $1 bet probably wins you $10 if that all happens. Anthony bet on stuff like that all the time this past season. The main result I constantly watched: increased knowledge of all 5 players listed, and full investment in that game.

Fantasy Connections

Anthony is a great fantasy sports player, and bets like that make him better. His eyes glue to his Draft Kings app, but also to his fantasy teams. Are any of the players in the parlay available on waivers or headed there? He would know. I personally resisted the urges to play fantasy sports for about a 5 year period of time in college and early career. I finally made the leap in 2011, and joined the community via fantasy baseball. To call me hooked is an understatement. I play baseball, football, hockey and basketball every season, and often have multiple teams. Matthew Berry from ESPN writes weekly columns during football season gushing about how FFB brings people together, and I agree with him.

I play all of the above sports with a combination of college and work friends. Making the effort to stay connected to people is second nature to me, but fantasy sports helps. That makes it even more critical for those that find keeping connections harder. However, my real favorite part of fantasy is the fan enhancement. I am a better, more informed fan because of the attention fantasy sports demand to stats and trends. Being better than your friends is icing on the cake.

Back to the Betting Thing

Calvin Ridley deserves to be in trouble over his betting. Las Vegas missed out on a pro sports franchise for decades due to the proximity of gambling. The NHL was the first to get over itself adding the Golden Knights, and the Raiders have since followed. Sin City has not only avoided ruining those teams, but has established as the exit plan for the Oakland A’s. The next NBA team with cold feet will rumor to there as well. Sports gambling is simply available there as many other places, and is a fun way to light money on fire getting more into a sport. It will eventually be legal everywhere in the US.

The only thing that can get in the way is stupid stuff like this Ridley thing. From what I see Ridley placed multiple parlay bets as an inactive player. There is absolutely nothing Ridley can do to influence all 5 scenarios in my example above even if he played. That said, he committed the cardinal sin, which is the implication and proximity to a fixing the outcome of games. Pete Rose lost his career to this. Calvin Ridley is losing a season.

A Few More Thoughts on Semantics of Sports Betting

I personally don’t believe either of them did anything wrong. Betting on yourself to win and put up stats seems more than OK. The problem is how quickly the lines get gray. Every layer of nuance adds infinite layers of interpretation. The only real way to prevent malfeasance in earnest is to stop it all. A policy that athletes cannot bet on their sport is appropriate and Ridley should be in trouble. However, a season (AKA 8X Ray Rice, 4X Greg Hardy, etc. etc.) doesn’t pass a smell test. The NFL is throwing the book and making a stand, which makes sense. A 4 game makes the same point and doesn’t torpedo the Falcons.

Hopefully this is no more than a forgettable speed bump on the road to legalized sports betting.

The CHIEFS Spot In All of This

Things were quiet in KC until the Wilson news. Placing the franchise tag on Orlando Brown was news. Tyreek’s extension appears close to done as well. Honey Badger leaving looked imminent as well. The updated landscape of the AFC West gives Veach and Co. something to think about. LA Chargers will be back with a vengeance with a resigned Mike Williams. Josh McDaniels and Russell Wilson set the Raiders and Broncos up to score as well. Scoreboards will light up in the West.

How will good teams react and combat these offensive trends? By working on the front 7 pressure and pass rush. Brett Veach flipped the O line in an offseason, and word on the street is this offseason he flips the D line. Let’s hope that is true because it looks like a pretty good idea right now.

Josh Kinglsey – ArrowheadOne