“Better a diamond with a flaw,
than a pebble without.”
~Confucius
That quote pretty much sums up what the Chiefs have on their roster: lots of diamonds. Yes, a few flaws here and there but diamonds nevertheless. However, during the recent Eric Berry contract talks between the Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey and Eric Berry’s agent, what surfaced publicly was the very real idea that Berry is not worth a huge contract. While many more fans do think the Kansas City should have given Berry his huge payday, it raises the question, do most Chiefs fans over-hype the players?
Let’s take a closer look at what the other NFL players think of the Chiefs best nine players, then compare that with another list and then explore the upside and downside for each player.
Now here’s a list based upon a USA Today projection of who will be the best in 2016:
That’s quite a difference between the two lists. The first list is made by National League players themselves. The second list is compiled by one man, Steven Ruiz, for USA Today and For the Win (FTW). Although I have never really cared for the USAToday take on issues related to the Kansas City Chiefs, it does serve to reflect a fairly common view held by larger media outlets who generally devalue Chiefs players as a whole.
For the purposes of this piece, I will take each of the Chiefs top 11 players, all mentioned above, give you what I believe should be the upside and downside of where they rank. However, before I set out to “compare each of these players to other players at their positions across the league” I must first say, I generally don’t believe in it.
Here’s why. Both Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (LDT) and Tre Jackson of the New England Patriots play the same position: right guard. This is not a bad comparison because it looks like Jackson will be the Pats starter after starting 9 games in 2015 as a third year player. LDT is also a third year guy. Now, take the K.C. offensive approach first, according to Vincent Frank of the Bleacher Report,
“Kansas City’s zone-blocking scheme… calls for more athletic blockers to pull to the outside and give the running back lanes to run through on stretches.”
Now, the New England Patriots offensive scheme,
“[The Patriots use the] Erhardt-Perkins system with a man-blocking scheme. You will see two-tight end sets, four wide receivers lined up outside, bunch formations and even jumbo packages. It’s a combination of all sorts of formations, first utilized by Ron Erhardt and Ray Perkins decades ago. The traditional aspect of this scheme is to utilize a power-running offense to set up the play-action pass downfield.”
So, ask yourself, “Hey self, do the Pats ask their right guard to do the same things that the Chiefs ask their right guard to do?”
You can’t just answer… “Yes… block!” It’s so much more difficult than that…. and… the real reason is… it’s nearly impossible to compare players who even play in the exact same system for different teams, so how can you compare players in different systems?
On the other hand, every team is running the same plays. It may be a different scheme… but good pass blocking is always good pass blocking..
With that being said, here’s a look at how Chiefs players are valued or, as I’m calling it here, their “value-variance.”
Justin Houston
Upside: Justin Houston was the best outside linebacker in the league one offseason ago. Now that Von Miller has just won a Super Bowl and Houston has finished the season injured and requiring surgery… it’s clearly Miller time. While Miller is better at getting to the quarterback, Houston is just a tick behind. Yet, Houston is much better in coverage. When Houston is right and true, he is the best “all-round” outside linebacker in the league.
Is Houston over-hyped by Chiefs fans? Not in my view. When he’s healthy, he should even be rated higher than #26. After all, he was better than J.J. Watt, in my opinion, in 2014… and look where he was rated (#1 overall). Now THAT’s an over-hype job.
Note: I’m not going to spend any more time comparing him to J.J. Watt because Watt is a defensive lineman who is more of a hybrid-jack-of-all-trades who is used all over the place. Beside that, Watt is used more as a backfield disruptor and rarely is used in coverage like Justin.
Downside: If Justin Houston has to sit out half of this season or worse yet, if he does not return with the same power and production as before, he could fall out of the top ten at his position.
Eric Berry:
A lot has been said about Eric Berry lately so I’m not going to add much more here except to say, yes, I believe he is over-hyped by a great number of K.C. fans. You only need to listen to the callers on Kansas City radio sports talks shows to know this fact. There are also a select group of “fans” who think Berry is crap. I’d rank Berry somewhere in the top five at his position as we begin the 2016 season but not as low as #44 where Steven Ruiz has him.
Do Chiefs fans over-hype Berry? Earl Thomas, Reggie Nelson, and Harrison Smith could all be placed above Berry. Answer? yes.
Marcus Peters
Upside: Marcus Peters has made his own place in the sun. Of course fans are all gah-gah over a rookie corner who makes the Pro Bowl. It doesn’t hurt that he had 8 interceptions in 2015. Could Peters be the best corner in the league? That doesn’t seem likely. He’s a risk taker more than a “stick-like-glue” guy. Not saying he isn’t good in coverage… just not the best yet. In the 5 to 10 range yes, but I don’t see him as a top 5 guy “yet.”
Downside: If Peters was dependent upon the presence of Sean Smith, the Chiefs other corner in 2015, and teams stop throwing Peters’ way because there is a deficiency on the other side this year — not saying there will be at all — but if there is, Peter could take a hit this year simply by default.
Do Chiefs fans over-hype Peters? For now I would say yes. He could someday be the next Charles Woodson but the problem is… many fans are already treating him as if he is. However… Peters not only tied for the league lead in interceptions but was the outright leader in passed defended with 25. So, if he keeps that up the rookie will turn into the next Darrelle Revis before long.
Jamaal Charles
Upside: There’s not doubt that Jamaal Charles is a star in the National Football League. He’s well liked but more importantly he’s been very, very good. The players had him at #75 overall this past season (that was probably based on his body of work and not his 2015 effort) and if the league as a whole is continuing to downgrade running backs, I can understand that ranking. I would place him closer to #50. His timing in the hole, ability to make one sharp cut and then explode from one-to-sixty is nearly unmatched in the league. Throw in his all-time best yards per carry number and you don’t have more than 50 players in the league better than he is.
Downside: Charles is admittedly thinking about life after football (see his Fourth Quarter blog). The next time J.C. is hurt I think you can wave goodbye, as he heads up the tunnel, for the very last time. However, he’s not there yet and while he’s in the league, he’s going to continue to be someone that opposing teams talk about and plan for every time they face the Chiefs.
Do Chiefs fans over-hype Charles? J.C. is one player that I think is not hyped enough by people. He’s the quiet assassin. The unknown soldier. The non-vocal minority. I’d place Adrian Peterson ahead of him but there’s not a bunch of other guys who have stood out consistently for me to say they’re better than Charles. I’d say he’s on a par with LeSean McCoy so those two would be tied for 2nd in my book.
Derrick Johnson
Upside: Derrick Johnson is a senior statesman on the Chiefs roster (along with Dustin Colquitt). He’s like old reliable. He’s also one of those quiet guys who just goes out and performs without fanfare. I’ve noticed before, whenever the team has changed head coaches (and he’s played under four of them) when he’s asked questions about the previous regime, he refuses to go there. He is one class act and has become one of the best linebackers in the league.
Downside: The players in the NFL have placed Derrick at #80 but that’s not high enough for me. He’s a top five MLB in the league and I would be hard pressed to name another five who are better. There’s Luke Kuechly and then a bunch of other guys including D.J.. How about Navorro Bowman and Bobby Wagner? I don’t think they any better than Derrick Johnson has been.
Do Chiefs fans over-hype Derrick Johnson? Early in his career… yes. Nowadays? No.
Alex Smith: I’m not going to turn this into a QB battle of words so I’ll just let the players grade stand for now: he deserves to be at #81 for now.
Tamba Hali:
Upside: Hali can be a Pro Bowl performer again if he’s able to share snaps this season and be effect at what he’s asked to do, namely, rush the passer. His work ethic is next to none and that’s probably what has kept him in the league as long as he’s been there. Is he a top ten player at the outside linebacker position? No, but he can be a top 15 guy if all goes well this year. The positives of having Hali on the roster are too big to ignore. He’s only missed four games in ten season. He’s averaged 8.6 sacks a year and had a high of 14.5 sacks.
Downside: If Hali doesn’t respond well to having his knee scoped he may be missing more games especially when Justin Houston returns and if Dee Ford does admirably in Houston’s stead. Coach Reid likes to hold Hali out and save him for game action so you won’t be able to judge Hali’s worth in training camp as he’ll look more like Forrest Gump than Tamba Hali this August (because of all the sitting with his hands in his lap).
Tamba is one of those players who fans of the Chiefs may over-hype and should not. He’s always been an above average player with a heart the size of Texas. Are these OLB’s better than Hali? –> Barkevious Mingo? No, but he’s 25 and Hali will be 33 during this season. LaMarr Woodley? Probably not. Elvis Dumervil? Yes. 96 sacks v. 86 for Hali. Same age.
Do Chiefs fans over-hype Tamba Hali? The Bleacher Report ranks Tamba Hali at the 10th best OLB in 2015. I’d say that’s about right for last year. 2016 is another question.
Travis Kelce #91 and Jeremy Maclin #93: I will defer to Brandon Chester and his piece called, “Mac and Swagger Deserve More Cred” for ArrowheadOne.com so please have a read.
Do Chiefs fans over-hype Kelce and Maclin? Oh yeah.
Mitchell Schwartz:
Upside: Mitchell Schwartz has been called the best right tackle in the league. The more I read… that’s usually said by Kansas City Chiefs fans.
Downside: Others say Mitchell Schwartz is only the second best right tackle in the league.
Do Chiefs fans over-hype Mitchell Schwartz? No. He’s one of the top two in the league. Probably is the number one guy. Plus, he’s young at 27 years old.
Dontari Poe:
Upside: You can expect Poe to have a comeback year and not only end up on the Top 100 but make the Pro Bowl too.
Downside: You saw it in 2015 when he had back surgery in July but started in September. His yearly stats dipped because of it.
Dontari Poe had a down year and was not voted into the top 100 or the Pro Bowl however, you will likely find him both places in 2016. He’s had a tremendous offseason coming back from last year’s surgery and he’s also in a contract year.
Do Chiefs fans over-hype Dontari Poe? Poe is arguably one of the top five nose tackles in the league and while there may be some fans who like Kawann Short or Haloti Ngata or Vince Wilfork or Damon Harrison… Poe is right in that mix. I do see Aaron Donald and Star Lotulelei as a cut above the rest but Poe is very near the top especially when you consider what he’s being asked to do: tie up double-teams and beat them if possible.
Before closing I’d like to point out that I reviewed eleven Chiefs. That’s exactly half of the team’s starters who should deservedly be considered top 100 players… in my book. When you have that many players who are that good… you should be talking about a Super Bowl run. Or maybe even sprint.
What do you think Chiefs fans? Is there anyone you think is over-hyped? Or am I the only one who’s doing the over-hyping?