Eye in the Sky Report
2018 Kansas City Chiefs
By John Cooney
John is the Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind
and is also a guest writer at ArrowheadOne. Please feel free to visit their site for more NFL Fantasy Football insight. You can also find more of John’s work at PASS2WIN.com
Training camp is now open for business around the NFL. For many football fans, it is the dawn of a new season, a new beginning and hopes for that magical season once again float with cloud-level expectations.
In Kansas City, Arrowheadians are floating on the cloud of excitement created by the anointing of power-armed 2nd-year QB Pat Mahomes as the starting QB. Chiefs’ fans are fired up about the potential for deadly down-field strikes from Mahomes to a streaking Tyreek Hill and/or Sammy Watkins, seam-slashing slings to Travis Kelce and a one-cut-n-go gems delivered by Kareem Hunt. The offensive line is among the best in the league and Coach Reid has been quite candid in his projection of a more wide-open attack, allowing his young aerial launcher to not hold back and let it rip.
However, there are very real and clear-cut problems that need fixing on defense. If anyone wants concrete evidence of the broken KC defense, look no further than this year’s draft. GM Veach and Coach Reid ended up making 6 picks, once the trade smoke cleared, with 5 of the 6 player selections being defensive players. 3 of the 5 chosen on the D-side of the football play up-front, on the line. So, while we’re all hyped about the offense, the Chiefs’ folks knew darn well they must address the defense, or else.
So, lets address the defense this month.
The most dramatic changes on the defense this off-season occurred at linebacker and cornerback. Longtime KC starters and mainstays, Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali, were let go. Johnson provided sideline-to-sideline pursuit and stops for so long. Hali pressured and took down enemy QBs for many years. The two defensive stalwarts were the pursuit and pressure of the Chiefs’ D. However, pursuit and pressure were no longer present, and new sources need to be found and tapped. Reggie Ragland was acquired in trade with Buffalo. Ragland is a thumper and a first-round quality draft pick (2016) of the Bills. Ragland missed his rookie season after tearing his ACL during the preseason and was placed on IR. Last year Ragland appeared in 12 games for the Chiefs, tallied 44 total tackles. He had 9 tackles (5 solo, 4 assists) in the playoff tilt versus the Titans. While he is expected to be a run-stopping policeman in the middle for the Chiefs, the edge-to-edge pursuit machine was needed; enter Anthony Hitchens, formerly of Dallas. Hitchens is that high-motor type that chases down ball-carriers relentlessly and makes the sure tackles. Both ILBs are excellent versus the run, an aspect of the game last season’s unit struggled with mightily. Chiefs’ fans will enjoy the work of Hitchens; he caught my eye scouting him back in his Iowa days. Ragland’s swollen knee is currently keeping him out of action in camp. That is a concern for now. If there is a flaw in the inside-linebacker machinery it is the probable liability covering RBs in pass routes. Hitchens is fair-at-best and Ragland is just not built for that assignment. That’s where scheme and situational substitution come in with Coach Sutton. The defense appears to be aligned so that the ILBs can zone-in on the football in-front of them, namely the run. Safeties Eric Berry, Daniel Sorensen and as well as slot-corner Kendall Fuller will handle the RBs and TEs slipping into the route trees of opposing offenses. When the Chiefs are in clear pass-down-distance situations, sub-ILB Terrance Smith might get the call. Smith is not good playing the run, but he is excellent dropping into zones and hip-locking backs and TEs in man coverage. Special teamer Ukeme Eligwe is also athletic and able in coverage, though he is mostly locked in on ‘teams. The key for the Chiefs in the middle this season is being successful pursuing and limiting the chunky ground gains against; the Hitchens/Ragland tandem is an upgrade over the Johnson/Ragland duo of 2017; Ragland’s knee pending.
Run-stopping was a problem, but so was getting to the QB. KC pass-rushers generated just 31 sacks in 2017. OLB Justin Houston led the way with 9.5 take downs. DE Chris Jones chipped in with 6.5. Three defenders tied with 2 sacks after Houston and Jones. That’s not getting the job done. Coach Sutton wants his defensive players to be on the attack in 2018, with an “edge” in attitude, style of play, game plan and game-calls. That’s a clear message to oft-injured and rarely productive Dee Ford. Not only must Ford play up to his ability, but he must find how to upgrade his availability. Ford is sure to feel the heat from rookie Breeland Speaks. The team’s top pick this year (2nd round), Speaks (6’3-285, 4.87×40) played DT at Mississippi but is set to play OLB/DE in Coach Sutton’s 3-4 system. Speaks can set the edge and get to the passer as well. Last season at Ole Miss, Speaks nailed down 7 QB sacks and combined for 61 tackles (25 solo, 36 assists, 8 for a loss) from the DT spot. Speaks is a close fit physically to Tamba Hali, who taped out at 6’3-275 and was a DE in college. 3rd -round pick, OLB Dorian O’Daniel, also knows his way to the QB. O’Daniel is built light for a LB at 220-pounds. Speed (4.61×40) and pursuit are the traits he brings. Playing for Clemson, O’Daniel had 7.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss over the last 2 seasons. He and Speaks give Coach Sutton flexibility and options to create a pass rush from various angles and positions. Massive Tanoh Kpassagnon (6’7-280) lines up behind Justin Houston. I’d much rather see Kpassagnon on the edge at the line, using his size and underrated athleticism to alter passing lanes, knock down a few at the line, press the edge in on a QB and contain the run. He’s not a pass rusher and KC would suffer in the pressure department if Houston were to miss games. The projected starting LB unit is:
- LOLB Justin Houston
- LILB Anthony Hitchens
- RILB Reggie Ragland
- ROLB Dee Ford
If the Chiefs’ offense can hit a couple of those Pat Mahomes deep strikes early in games, getting out to quick leads (or big ones with any luck), that would play right into the hands of Coach Sutton. The Chiefs then can rev-up the edge pressure from the new LB group, get a good rhythm going, lay a foundation of confidence and set the tone for the rest of the season. I am thrilled the club added Hitchens inside and can’t wait to watch him operate. The rookies should be fun to watch as well.
The first line of defense appears set, with Chris Jones and Allen Bailey establishing the edge of the line of scrimmage. Jones was 2nd on the team in sacks with 6.5 last season. He’s 6’6-310, strong, talented and clearly a rising star. Bailey was one of those 3 defensive guys ties with 2 sacks last season, which qualifies for 3rd best in KC last season. He fits the Sutton 3-4 DE role perfectly; plays with area integrity, stays home when the play is not coming his way, can penetrate the pocket and get to the QB on occasion. Veteran Jarvis Jenkins heads the depth behind the 2 DE starters, but that depth is thin, untested and seriously questionable. If either Bailey or Jones were to miss games, LB Kpassagnon and/or rookie Speaks would likely rotate up front to help out. A camp battle is likely to occur at nose tackle between 4th-year veteran Xavier Williams and 3rd-round pick Derrick Nnadi, with Nnadi the favorite to win-out. Nnadi, out of Florida State (a favorite hunting ground for college talent by Mr. Veach), plays with great leverage, power and jolt. He is a stout run-stopper inside, able to occupy interior blockers with a strong anchor, but will fire through the line for timely negative gains by opposing backs and once in a while get the QB. Williams, undrafted 4 seasons ago, was signed by Arizona and barely played until last season, appearing in 11 games, starting 1. He tallied 20 tackles (16 solo) and half a sack. The most likely starting front-3 for Kansas City in the opener are:
- LDE Chris Jones
- NT Derrick Nnadi
- RDE Allen Bailey
The main assignment of the Chiefs’ 3-4 D-line is control the lanes, occupy blockers, pressure when called and disrupt blocking on run plays. The 6.5 sacks from Chris Jones last season is a performance high-mark and not a norm for any of the KC down-3.
The secondary… Marcus Peters is now an ex-Chief, traded to the Rams for a 4th-rounder this year and a 2nd next year. The 4th-round slot was used to bring free safety Armani Watts aboard. Kansas City brass decided re-signing Peters in another year would be too much of a headache as well as too expensive. Given how poorly the secondary played last season, even with Peters on the field, CB and safety had to be revamped. GM Veach remodeled both the CB and QB positions drastically with one trade in March, sending QB Alex Smith to Washington for CB Kendall Fuller. Before that transaction, Mr. Veach signed former 2nd-round pick (2013) David Amerson 11 days after being cut by the rival Raiders. Amerson was originally drafted by the Redskins, so KC will field at least 2 DBs that patrolled Washington’s airways; Fuller arrived a season after Amerson was let go by Washington. Holdover Steve Nelson returns, and the Chiefs are in talks with another ex-Redskin CB, Bashaud Breeland. Fuller is a first-round talent that looks to be headed for slot duty. Amerson and Nelson will likely man the outside, and Breeland will challenge if signed. Except for Fuller, the remaining CB candidates all have had performance flaws that led to their being available. Keep an eye on undrafted (2017) CB Ashton Lampkin. Lampkin showed good press skill at Oklahoma State, and could stick his cover. He would bite in the extra route move by a heady wideout, but overall, he played physical and smooth. Lampkin spent 2017 on the IR. I’m watching the progress of Amerson here. In case we have forgotten, Amerson was a pure ball-hawk at North Carolina State, stealing 18 interceptions over his last 2 college seasons. Can DB coaches Emmitt Thomas and Al Harris help Amerson rediscover his QB-picking ways? I have a feeling the answer is yes. If the pass rush is re-energized and pressuring QBs, picks will come and Amerson knows how to drive on the football and win it. Pressure, pressure, pressure… the front-7 must do their jobs and this underrated patchwork of former high draft picks will make things happen. The projected starting defensive backfield is:
- LCB David Amerson
- SS Eric Berry*
- FS Armani Watts
- RCB Steven Nelson
- SCB Kendall Fuller
At Strong Safety, Eric Berry is coming back once again from a season-ender. So far, so good! Berry is a sound run-supporter and, before this latest injury, a darn good interior cover DB, able to handle most RBs and TEs. We shall see if Berry has lost a step at age 29 and returning from a tough but successful rehab. Berry has a terrific stand-in, Daniel Sorensen. Free Safety (FS) is open and I’m betting on rookie Armani Watts to win the role. Watts, out of Texan A&M, is a good tackler and has nice ball skills for the FS spot. With Berry as a mentor and on-field coach of sorts, watch Watts progress rapidly. Yes, there will be mistakes, but again, if the front-7 is bringing pressure and putting opposing offenses in down-distance passing situations, we’re likely to see more of Kendall Fuller and less of the rookie FS.
Pressure, pressure, pressure. The front-7 set the tone for the defense in 2018.
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