Eye in the Sky Report- 10.24.16

Eye in the Sky Report

2016 Kansas City Chiefs

By John Cooney

Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind

So, as expected Coach Reid did come out of the bye week break with a “new” wrinkle ready to be sprung on the Oakland Raiders. And it worked to perfection for the Chiefs on the field. Problem for fantasy coaches who, like me, bought into Big Red’s return to his pass-happy ways were left holding the bag. That bag contained lots of useless Kansas City pass game players such as Jeremy Maclin, Chris Conley, Travis Kelce and, of course, Alex Smith.

Coach Reid’s “surprise” tactic was a return for sure; a return to the run the rock and run it again ways of 2015… and 2014… and 2013. Putting fantasy football aside, it was a masterful blueprint designed by Coach and his offensive staff and the craftsmen implementing the plans delivered on time and within budget. And a modest budget it was. Alex Smith was at his efficient best, throwing the ball a mere 22 times while surgically completing 19. It honestly was a thing of beauty in the real football world, but fanballers could only dream of what could have been. Though Smith was darn stingy with the number of his aerial offerings, his yards per attempt (YPA) was an explosive 10.2. Oh, what coulda’ been! The projected Chris Conley breakout never materialized, and was never meant to be. About as close to a shift in focus on getting Conley the ball more was the tiny fact that he actually led all Chiefs in targets against the Raiders, seeing a whopping 4 throws his way. Maclin was the receiving star for KC in week 6, securing all 3 of his targets for 49 yards. When Smith sprinkles 19 completions among a field of 10 recipients, no fanballers owning one of the 10 is going to rake in game-changing FFB points. The feature performer for the Chiefs in week 6 was RB Spencer Ware. Ware was supposed to be retreating back to his understudy role with the “110%” return to health of Jamaal Charles. See, anytime someone offers you a percentage of something, you best ask a key qualifying question… like, 110% of what? Charles labored through his 9 carries for a muddy 3.7 YPC. He caught 2 passes from Smith, traveling 16 yards on one of them and taking a 2 yard loss on another. Then the 110% continued to deflate as after the game Charles’ knee began to swell and there are concerns his repaired (re-repaired!) knee isn’t 110%; not even 100%. That led to Ware’s terrific week 6 command performance, churning out 163 yards from scrimmage (YFS) and a TD. Ware mashed out a stellar 5.5 YPC on the Raiders. Charcandrick West chipped in a few carries, ripping through the Oakland D for 6.3 a pop; Charles could must a paltry 3.7. Let’s see how the knee reacts this week, but this is likely going to be a season-long situation or the Chiefs’ bosses may have to address the inevitable fact that their one-time ultimate RB weapon is 30 years old and already in the rapid decline phase pro backs experience. IN the end, for week 6, the good news was a big W against the hated Raiders in their own backyard.

Now, those Saints come marchin’ in!

Some housekeeping to tend to regarding injuries:

Allen Bailey, DE, suffered a shoulder injury and has landed on the injured reserve list.

Justin March-Lillard, ILB, is dealing with an unspecified injury and has been placed on injured reserve.

Justin Houston, OLB, has been cleared for football activities as he continues to recover from ACL surgery. He is on the PUP list but is eligible to return October 30th against the Colts.

Jamaal Charles, RB, is dealing with swelling in his knee and it is unclear if he will be available for Sunday’s game against the Saints.

Kenneth Acker, DB, is bothered by a shoulder injury and it is unclear if he will see the field Sunday against the Saints.

Tamba Hali, OLB, is hampered by a knee injury and it is undetermined if he will be available Sunday against the Saints.

Jordan Devey, OL, is ailing from an ankle injury and it is undetermined if he will take the field against the Saints on Sunday.

Mitchell Schwartz, OL, limited due to an ankle injury and his status for Sunday’s game against the Saints is uncertain.

Sio Moore, LB, missed the last game due to an illness and it is unknown if he will play against the Saints on Sunday.

Phillip Gaines, CB, departed the last game with a knee injury and his status against the Saints on Sunday is uncertain.

Marcus Peters, CB, sustained a head injury but is expected to suit up against the Saints on Sunday

GM John Dorsey has been pretty busy. His recent activity includes:

RB Knile Davis traded to the Green Bay Packers

DL Nick Williams waived.

DL Kendall Reyes signed.

DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches promoted from the practice squad.

ILB Ramik Wilson promoted from the practice squad.

CB Terrance Mitchell promoted from the practice squad.

The Davis move/trade out of town was eventually coming as soon as the Chiefs drafted Tyreek Hill and inked RBs Ware and West to new deals. Wilson’s promotion may be the springboard to a budding and successful pro career. I like his motor and energy. He can play.

Now, about the game.

If it’s not broke and the circumstances fit, don’t fix it. The Chiefs came out of the bye week sporting a return to the rushing days of 2015. And they did so quite well against an Oakland defense that is soft defending the run. Well, here we go again. The Saints ground forces are anything but forceful. The Bourbon Streeters will see a whole lot of Spencer Ware, with a mix of Jamaal Charles (if he plays) and Charcandrick West. Fantasy coaches, I’d stash away West for potential future use if I had Charles on my roster. Ware is likely to remain the big Chief of the backfield the rest of the way, but I’m not thrilled with the smoke billowing out of Chiefs camp regarding Charles’ knee. Being proactive is being professional. Anyway, New Orleans has been rocked for 10 rushing scores by RBs, and 4.5 a clip. The dome-centric team is not the same outdoors, and that projects to some good home cookin’ for Ware and his fantasy coaches. Alex Smith and his band of frugal flyers? Like I said, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Why would Coach Reid open up a passing can of worms against the NFL’s most prolific passer? No, Coach will look to “build” on Smith very prudent passing of week 6, a game that produced all of 22 pass attempts by the Chiefs’ offense. If you think the TDs air scores will still be abundant against the porous Saints D, step back a moment and check the records. Yes, the Saints will give up yards (when involved in a shootout), but the much maligned secondary has only allowed 7 TD passes this year, 4 to wideouts. WRs Maclin, Conley, Wilson, Hill and TE Kelce will have to make-do with the lone TD that Smith throws. And that’s not taking into account the potential for Ware, West or Charles to steal a scoring pass from them. Heading into week 7, about the only thing fanballers can count on in KC is that a RB will produce quality numbers while the risk/reward factor on all other Chiefs not named Ware is too great to gamble a starting spot in a FFB lineup.

KC’s defense saw some shifting last week thanks to the injury and IR placement of DE Allen Bailey. Hats off the Bailey for his unsung but quality play. IDPers may not appreciate his on-field work, but just the same, his productive efforts will be missed. What this means is more feature snaps for rookie DE/DT Chris Jones. No doubt he’ll be out there brimming with anxious energy and adrenaline, and I expect a couple of noteworthy plays by the big rook. Like Bailey, Jones has impressed football folks even in the small window of play he’s be afforded. He is a bull on the line of scrimmage that shows the power to dominate the lineman across form him. He’s a powerful penetrating and disruptive force. Might be worth an IDP flyer. I suppose Ramik Wilson will line up inside next to LB Derrick Johnson. ArrowheadOne.com’s Ladner Morse stated this week, “ I didn’t understand allowing Ramik Wilson to go (practice squad) earlier so I hope he ends up starting in JML’s (Justin March-Lillard) place.” While I wouldn’t insert Wilson into an IDP lineup just yet, he’s one to eye up. Johnson is a sure IDP producer this week up against the high volume Saints offense. Speaking of high volume, CB Steve Nelson has a target on his back and will be tested early and often by QB Drew Brees. Nelson will give up a boatload of catches and yards, and he’ll be forced into making a bunch of tackles 10-15 yards downfield. But, tackles are points and even a picked on CB can be an IDP asset. Sometimes being bad is good for FFB use. CB Marcus Peters goes head-on with Saints’ playmaker Brandin Cooks. It’s a headliner matchup that will be fun as heck to watch. Peters has the usual INT potential here. How ‘bout that Dee Ford?! He’s getting to the QB these days. Brees will be dropping back a bunch here, so Ford’s chances of bagging a sack are pretty good.

Special teams with Tyreek Hill returning the ball are always potentially lethal. Kicker Cairo Santos has proven to be a reliable if unspectacular booter for fanballers.

The Chiefs are back home and back to their old ways of grind-it-out offense. That’s OK. It’s not broken… matter of fact, its working. Don’t fix it Coach; at least not this week.

John Cooney is a Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind.