Eye in the Sky Report, 11-26-16
By John Cooney
Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind
Well, it was bound to happen. This hand-held, play-safe (scared?) style of offense eventually was going to work against the Chiefs and Coach Reid, and it did in week 11. Injuries surely played a part in the 3rd loss of the season, but every team has to deal with health challenges. What is so frustrating about the way Coach Reid maps out a game plan and then calls one is that it is bent on NOT losing a contest rather than winning one. It works over the course of a regular season schedule, but with high stakes post-season play, playing NOT to lose eventually ends in a loss. When the offense HAS to kick it into high gear to catch up or keep pace, it is out-of-character and the club plays uncomfortably. Hey, they are our Chiefs, but honestly, most times they are not a lot of fun to watch.
Game Balls
TE Travis Kelce fought hard and snared 7 balls for 108 yards. RB Spencer Ware pieced together 85 YFS on 19 touches, but again failed to hit for 6. I get on DB Steve Nelson a lot, but he played tough and made 7 solo stops while recovering a fumble. ILB Ramik Wilson was all over the field and came away with 8 tackles, 7 solo.
Housekeeping and injury notes
OLB Dee Ford exited the previous game with a hamstring injury and will not be able to play against the Broncos on Sunday.
WR Jeremy Maclin has missed two straight games due to a groin injury and will not return to the lineup against the Broncos on Sunday.
CB Marcus Peters sat out the previous game due to a hip pointer but will be available Sunday against the Broncos.
DB Steven Nelson is nursing a neck injury and it is unclear if he will play Sunday against the Broncos.
ILB Derrick Johnson sustained an Achilles injury and his status against the Broncos on Sunday is in question.
DT Dontari Poe is limited due to a back injury and it is unknown if he will participate in Sunday’s game against the Broncos.
OLB Tamba Hali is bothered by a knee injury and it is unclear if he will partake in Sunday’s tilt against the Broncos.
DE Kendall Reyes is ailing due to a knee injury and it is undetermined if he will suit up Sunday against the Broncos.
DE/DT Jaye Howard missed the last game due to a hip injury and will not play Sunday against the Broncos.
WR Tyreek Hill left the last game with a knee injury but will play on Sunday against the Broncos.
RB Charcandrick West left the previous game due to concussion-like symptoms but is expected to suit up against the Broncos on Sunday.
The team is banged up heading into the biggest game of the season at Denver. With the walking wounded so plentiful this week, Coach Reid is going to be in full ‘don’t lose’ mode.
Let’s make this quick and to the point; Smith has not been as confident since going out with the concussion a few weeks ago. Even before the head shot he was not having his best season as a Chief. And while Coach Reid has kept his club winning despite Smith’s soft play, the league is well aware of the Kansas City short game and the rushing contributions Smith added in the past. Smith’s rushing lanes are no longer there and those extra first downs he was able to manufacture the past couple of seasons are not being produced this year. With defenses having the KC playbook figured out, KC QBs have managed just 3 TD passes in last 3 games. In 2 games vs DEN last year Smith tossed 1 TD and 2 INTs. Smith is 2-5 vs DEN as a Chief. In his last game vs DEN RB Charcandrick West racked up 161 YFS and 2 TDs; 1 rushing and 1 receiving. West is backing up RB Spencer Ware this week. Ware has gained over 70 YFS 8 of his 9 games played this season. For all his good works between the 20s Ware has just 1 rushing TD and 1 receiving score this season. DEN will get run on by RBs as backs rip through DEN for 5.0 YPC in last 4 games. That nice, but in the last 5 games only 1 RB has reached the endzone on the Broncs. Knowing Coach Reid and given the health status of the team KC will test DEN with Ware early and often. WR Jeremy Maclin sits out his 3rd consecutive game. Tyreek Hill dinged his knee last week but appears to be ready to go here without restrictions. Hill has been excellent and his speed could test even the vaunted DEN CBs. With that Hill still rates a shot-in-the-dark play this week against the shut-down Bronco CBs. WRs Chris Conley and Albert Wilson will have a tough time getting open for Smith. TE Travis Kelce has been able to find open windows in the past against DEN but he rarely breaks free for YAC. I’m afraid KC’s offense lack of an aerial threat could shut down rushing lanes for Ware and thus bring the Chiefs’ offense to a halt.
A quick run-down on IDP prospects for the Chiefs
I’m not sure how well ILB Derrick Johnson is moving with the various injuries he has played through. DJ seems to come out of games now with something new. He hurt his Achillis last week and his week 12 status is questionable. That leaves plenty of open ground for ILB Ramik Wilson to cover. The Broncos are sure to try and get rookie RB Devontae Booker going. Wilson may have to make a majority of his tackles 4-5 yards past the line of scrimmage, but tackles are tackles. CB Marcus Peters is going to give it a go and he draws WR Emmanuel Sanders. At full speed Peters hangs with any wideout, but with a sore hip he may not be able to drive on the football, arrive late and get caught reaching and out of position. Steve Nelson gets thrown at and that leads to abundant tackle opportunities. OLB Justin Houston is back and just in time as fellow backer Dee Ford is OUT. Denver’s o-line is not a stellar bunch and Houston can start getting to the QB again. Safety Eric Berry is always a good play in big games, and they don’t get any bigger than this one.
I know this is getting ahead of the job at-hand, but once this campaign comes to a conclusion the Chiefs GM John Dorsey and Coach Reid have to address the QB situation for 2017. Alex Smith is a great guy and a competent QB, but no team is going to win a title with him as the starting QB. This club has darn god weaponry on offense. RBs Ware and West form a wonderfully versatile backfield tandem that would reach new performance heights in a more dynamic aerial attack. Jeremy Maclin’s sharp YAC capabilities are stymied by the predictable play-calling and short stemmed patterns. Chris Conley is a supremely gifted athlete that should be on the verge of breaking into stardom. Instead, Conley labors in a poor-fitting conservative playbook. Tyreek Hill is being utilized as he should, but that only came about due to injuries to Maclin. Albert Wilson has Steve Smith game but John Doe opportunity. The Chiefs need a high octane motor to get this buggy out of the gates fast and really compete for the checkered flag. Time to break the bank and make a splash at QB. Washington’s Kirk Cousins would be my choice. In college, Ole Miss injured QB Chad Kelly has the on-field dynamics to be a winner in the NFL. I’m not calling for a change for change sake, but Alex Smith gets this club only so far; about as far as most of his throws travel.
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John Cooney is a Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind.
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