Eye in the Sky Report, 12/4/16

Eye in the Sky Report

By John Cooney

Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind

Week 12 was just darn exciting and even more-so with the Chiefs knocking off rival Denver in overtime, 30-27. Hey! How ‘bout that Tyreek Hill! A TD 3 different ways and a vital receiving score with 12 seconds left in regulation, allowing the team to go for a 2-pointer to tie it up and force OT. OUTSTANDING! Kicker Cairo Santos didn’t have a field goal during regulation, but nailed 2 3-pointers in overtime to win the game and lift the Chiefs into sole possession of 2^nd place in the AFC West, a game behind the Raiders and 1-up on those Broncos.

Game Balls

This is starting to become a regular activity, but once again a game ball goes out to WR/KR Tyreek Hill. 3 TDs, 3 different ways and the key score with 12-seconds left that gave his club the chance to take the game into OT. TE Travis Kelce was unstoppable, snaring 8 of 15 targets for 101 yards. OLB Justin Houston was all over the field, sacking QB Trevor Siemian 3 times, creating a mess in the Denver backfield and making tackles off the line. His running mate, Tamba Hali, bagged Siemian once himself and added 5 solo stops. Kicker Cairo Santos was super-clutch, making both of his pressure-packed field goal tries in overtime.

Housekeeping and Injury Notes

DE Kendall Reyes is battling a knee injury and it is unknown if it will hinder his availability against the Falcons on Sunday.

WR Jeremy Maclin has been out three consecutive games due to a groin injury and will not return to the lineup against the Falcons on Sunday.

DT Dontari Poe exited the last game due to a back injury and it is unknown if he will play against the Falcons on Sunday.

CB Steven Nelson missed the previous game with a neck injury but will play in Sunday’s game against the Falcons.

OLB Tamba Hali is nursing a knee injury and it is unknown if it will hinder his availability Sunday against the Falcons.

WR Chris Conley is dealing with an Achilles injury but is suiting up against the Falcons on Sunday.

OL Mitchell Schwartz is battling an ankle injury but got in a full practice and is in Sunday’s game against the Falcons.

OLB Dee Ford sat out the previous game with a hamstring injury but is likely to play against the Falcons on Sunday.

OLB Justin Houston is hindered due to a shoulder injury but it is not expected to impede his availability Sunday against the Falcons.

Let’s get to the week 13 contest between the Chiefs and Falcons in Atlanta.

• QB Alex Smith has 2 TDs in his last 3 games. Always careful with the football, Smith has just 4 INTs on the year, but 2 in last 2 games. Smith has thrown 4 TDs and 2 INTs in 6 road games and he’s in ATL this week.
• ATL allowed 6 TD passes in last 3 games and have let up 25 on the season, 3^rd most in the league.
• KC Coach Reid thought he was getting WR Jeremy Maclin back this week, but it turns out Maclin just can’t make a go of it yet with that injured groin. Even if Maclin did suit up his effectiveness would be in question after a 3-week layoff.
• Rookie WR Tyreek Hill scored 3-different ways last week vs DEN; kick return, receiving and rushing. Even with Maclin’s eventual return Hill will not lose touches as the rookie is a variable play-making option for Coach Reid. Hill has seen 28 targets over last 3 games.
• WRs logged 7 TDs on ATL DBs over last 4 games. Week 8 ATL let in 4 GB WR TDs and 3 in week 9 to TB. ATL held PHL and ARZ WRs out of the end zone last 2 games.
• WR Albert Wilson has a TD 2 of last 3 games. Wilson is a good play vs ATL as Hill now draws major attention as well as TE Travis Kelce. I like Wilson to do something a bit special in this one as he plays in-front of some old friends and folks. Wilson played his college ball at Georgia State, so he might be a bit more energized in week 13.
• Travis Kelce has hauled in over 100 yards 3 of last 4 games. A TE has secured 5 or more catches vs ATL 5 of last 6 games. Kelce is once again most vital to the air attack for the Chiefs in a solid matchup.
• RBs break ATL for 4.7 YPC over last 4 games. Even better for KC RBs Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West is ATL’s lack covering RBs in routes. RBs rip ATL for 91 catches this season, by far most allowed in the league. Backs average over 8 catches a game vs ATL in last 4. On the road and on a fast track, Ware will flirt with 100YFS and surely eclipse his 2-3 catches a game average. It would be nice if Ware started hitting the end zone: he is sorely lacking in the scoring department this season. West has been ineffective this year but also chips in as a receiver this week.
• Look for KC to line up explosive Tyreek Hill in the backfield and swing him into matchups vs LBs; a huge mismatch for KC. That ploy could be the wildcard play for the Chiefs that the Falcons have no answer for. On this turf in the dome, Hill could be truly lethal.

A quick run-down on IDP prospects for the Chiefs:

Atlanta comes at a defense from many angles and formations. Devonta Freeman and Tevon Coleman form a dynamic duo backfield. Both backs pile up the touches and that translates to solid tackle numbers for safety Eric Berry. Berry is often assigned shadow duty against opposing backs with good pass-catching chops. Both Freeman and Coleman get out into routes regularly and downfield at times. Berry will be a busy tackler in week 13. OLB Justin Houston was an unstoppable force last week. He’s fresh and rarin’ to go. He dinged his shoulder but should be full-go and get after QB Matt Ryan. While the dream matchup in this battle would be CB Marcus Peters head-2-head with super WR Julio Jones but that will rarely take place as Peters plays on the opposite side of where Jones usually lines up. The Chiefs don’t shadow receivers if it means flipping the field. Unfortunately, Jones will be abusing toasty CB Phillip Gaines. Gaines is still smoldering from the torching he suffered at the hands of Denver’s Emmanuel Sanders. Now, while Gaines is no match for Jones and will most likely be shredded, those Ryan-to-Jones completions add up to solid tackle numbers for Gaines. Yes, they will be 15+ yards downfield, but tackles are tackles. ILB Derrick Johnson is always around the football; had 7 tackles last week (4 solo, 3 assists). 7 sounds like a good solo number for DJ this week.

I don’t like this matchup for the Chiefs even a little bit. For one, the game is set in Atlanta, in a dome against a darn explosive offense. Phillip Gaines versus Julio Jones? Oh Brother! The 2 Falcon RBs are gifted and deliver both tough yards and a big play here-n-there. Pesky gnat WR Taylor Gabriel, a college teammate of Charcandrick West at Abilene Christian, is a lot like Tyreek Hill in that he can hurt a defense in various ways. This may surprise some, but the player I am most concerned about on Atlanta is Mohamed Sanu. Forgot about him? There’s my concern. With the defense having to pay attention to Jones, Gabriel, Freeman, Coleman and Ryan, who is covering Sanu? The guy is not great as a WR, but he does a lot of things well. Why do I see a Sanu to Gabriel TD pass this week? And with the Falcons playing fast and popping points, Alex Smith is going to have to play out of character and sling it around the dome. I hope he eyes up WR Albert Wilson enough times. Wilson is kind of back “home” here as he played his college ball at Georgia State. He’ll have a little extra jump in his step with some of his folks in the stands. Chiefs have to put up point for point in this one… but how?

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John Cooney is a Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind.

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