Someday this silliness won’t exist. What silliness you ask? The silliness that has been the past few weeks of covert trade operations all under the guise of… “BUT NOT OFFICIALLY UNTIL MARCH 14TH.” So, what’s the purpose of the next two days? Since teams have already been: “visiting with players”… but not really… or “trading players”… but not really… and “signing players”… but not really… so then what’s the purpose of this edict which comes directly from “operations.nfl.com” and states:
“Clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with, the certified agents of players who will become Unrestricted Free Agents upon the expiration of their 2017 player contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 14. However, a contract cannot be executed with a new club until 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 14.”
It’s almost laughable isn’t it? So teams and players can “enter into contract negotiations” but those contracts can’t actually exist until “until 4:00, March 14” (which is the real beginning of a new league year).
My question is… how does that sound any different than what teams and players have already been doing?
Since there’s just no way for the league to police these ongoing negotiations within the 32 teams and well, more than 450 free agents, so, let’s see, 32 x 450+ possible contacts between players who are free agents this year and teams equals… a Ka-Zillion-ish (note: I counted the Free Agents this year and I had no idea there are actually that many). As I said, no way to police that many teams and players. I just wish they’d wiped out this silly “no contact” rule before the Chiefs somehow got caught with their pants down when contacting Jeremy Maclin.
Before I go into projecting which Top Ten Free Agents land where, here’s a peek at the overthecap, available cap space, scoreboard as of Sunday, March 11, 2018:
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In any event, the cows are out of the barn beginning today, Monday, March 12th, so let’s begin to keep track of all the player signings. This may not be a stupendous Free Agent class, but the compensation offered to them will be nothing short of that.
So, here are a few of my predictions about who goes where and why:
#1 FA- QB Kirk Cousins- Minnesota. why not, they have enough cap space ($47,362,005) to not only make Cousins the richest QB ever, but have enough money left over to take care of all their other holes… oh wait… they don’t have any. Another good reason for Kirk to beam up to the U.S. Bank Stadium (aptly named) and play all his home games indoors. Their OL is excellent but both Guards — Joe Berger (unrestricted) and Nick Easton (restricted) — are heading into free agency so they’ll have plenty of dough to bring one back and draft another.
If the Vikes can’t get Cousins then I think they go for the Bengals longtime backup QB A.J. McCarron. The reason for that has more to do with the Vikes regime wanting to get off the Broken-Down-QB-Musical-Chairs-Farriswheel they’ve been stuck on for a couple of years now. They’ve got the makings of a championship roster but the QB position has been a mess. Yes, they had Case Keenum (he’s a 30 year old but that’s like 60 in fan years) lead them into the playoffs this year but sticking with him will most certainly be a short-lived drive to the next-man-up if they do. So, they must figure it’s time to move on now, while there are some choices available.
NFL.com ranks Kirk Cousins as the #1 Free Agent and have Case Keenum listed at #8, Teddy Bridgewater at #11 and Sam Bradford at #12 while AJ McCarron comes in a #32.
#2 FA, QB Drew Brees– Saints. Big surprise. I’m not even sure why NFL.com has him listed as a Free Agent because if he doesn’t re-sign with the Saints… then that would be like the Chiefs trading their best CB — like, say, Marcus Peters, to, uh, the Rams, for next to nothing — what… you say they actually did do that? Well, I guess reality is stranger than fiction. Mark my words… the odds are much better that Brees stays in New Orleans.
#3 FA, WR Allen Robinson- Texans. Allen played his college ball at Penn State where in his freshman season he played for Joe Paterno. More importantly, once Paterno exited along with a couple fo WRs in front of him on the depth chart, he became a starting Wideout for the Nittany Lions under new coach… drum role please… Boll O’Brien the HC and OC for the Houston Texans. Since the Texans will have near to $66M in Monopoly-Cap-Space money on hand… you can see why he has a good possibility fo goign there.
#4 FA, DL Sheldon Richardson- going green. In the chart above you’ll notice the section in green… one of those teams who will over-pay to get a DL-man into the foal… and making a lot of other Fee Agents “green” with envy. Sheldon Richardson may even be worth the price to get him onto your roster, but he’ll be 30 years-old this year and teams should watch out for a steep decline just around the bend.
#5 FA, WR Sammy Watkins- L.A. Rams. Don’t shoot the messenger here but Watkins may be a great fit for the Chiefs and almost every other team in need of a WR, but once he realizes he has the best chance of pursuing a championship right back where he was traded to (by the Bills) then he may just accept their offer over a team on the downward trend. The Rams appear to be loading for bear — or making up their roster in the Dream Team image like Andy Reid did 15 years ago — but if he doesn’t see that this almost always doesn’t work, he could end up with those sheepish-looking-goat-horns on the side of his head for a few more years… oh yeah, but he’ll be rich.
#6 FA, OG Andrew Norwell- Giants. The N.Y. Giants have less Cap capital than K.C. but the New York Post has a list of players who they think the Giants should pursue in Free Agency with Norwell at the top of the list. The Panthers, Norwell’s team since 2014, have more money than the Giants do but will only be willing to pay a certain amount of their cap towards a Guard while I think the Giants will be willing to shoot their wad.
#7 FA, CB Kyle Fuller- Chiefs. Brett Veach likely has only one Big Boy card to play in his Free Agency deck and if he’s going to lay it on the table, it could be on a corner like Kyle Fuller. I expect more cuts between now and Wednesday at 4:00 for the Chiefs (which means more cap money to deal with) but if that doesn’t happen, I have to believe that Brett, Andy and Bob see that the epicenter of their Defensive problems of last season were “coverage-related-issues” in origin so if they can acquire another top flight CB to fill the void left by Mr. Peters-out, then they’ll be doing themselves — along with every fanbase in K.C. — a huge favor by fixing the problem and the franchise optics to go along with it. After all, Kyle does have another reason to want to play in K.C..
#8 FA, QB Case Keenum- some team’s backup. Hard to say this about a guy involved in one of the best throws in playoff ramifications history. In fact, Case Keenum wasn’t just a one-hit wonder in 2017. He had plenty of “Top Plays” to hang his hat on so maybe a team who is need of a good QB will give him a one or two-year deal with the idea that he’ll train a young gun in the process. He’d be great in that role. Here’s a look back at some of Case Keenum’s top plays:
He quarterbacked the 'Minnesota Miracle'…@casekeenum7's TOP 10 THROWS of 2017! pic.twitter.com/Wi0qILwC1w
— NFL (@NFL) March 11, 2018
#9 FA, CB Malcolm Butler- Bears, Texans, or Lions: all guesses. Malcolm Butler was 2nd team All’Pro in 2016 and was also responsible for the winning play in a Super Bowl but for some reason he was benched for this year’s Super Bowl. Head coach Bill Belichick said it was a, “coach’s decision and not due to disciplinary issues.” Right. If I was Butler, the team I’d want to hook up with — least of all — is the New England Patriots. This is where I see some silly money being thrown at a player who isn’t worth as much but has had an excellent run in the league so far. He’d be a good fit with the Chiefs except for a little thing like, the money.
#10 FA, CB Trumaine Johnson- 49ers or Broncos. While the Rams are the only team Trumaine Johnson has known (drafted in 2012), he’s had his job intercepted by Marcus Peters. He played his college ball at Montana. he’s 6-foot-2 and goes 213 and you have to figure that every team in the league would love to have him. No, he’s not the top shelf player that Aquib Talib or Marcus Peters have been but he can serve as a #1 CB and do you proud. He’s had 328 total tackles, 67 passes defensed, 18 INTs, 2 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, and 3 defensive TDs. Plus, isn’t he handsome!
As you can tell, I’m not expecting the Chiefs to be big players in the initial week of Free Agency. However, after that… watch out. Why? These Chiefs — since Andy Reid and John Dorsey came to town, and consequently, Brett Veach as well, could have started their own TV show and it would have been called, “The Value Hunters.” This year, with less cap to deal with, that blueprint will need to be followed to the “T” if they hope to continue to build the roster.
What are your predictions or expectations for the first week of Free Agency?.
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