My apologies up front, but this one is starting dark. We have all lost people in our lives, and I want to explore a quick concept. Picture a friend from high school. You were never extremely close, but always solid, friendly acquaintances. College time sent you in different directions, and you gradually lost touch almost completely. Weddings and reunions got you together every couple years, and you vowed to keep in touch every time. However, this never happened.
Now for the dark part: death. This friend, like all people will experience death, but YOU have a choice. Would you rather:
- Receive a phone call from another high school friend telling you this person passed away a year ago, or
- Have this person call you informing they have stage 4 cancer and a couple months to live?
I had this conversation with my buddy, Anthony at a bar last night. We didn’t really come to a conclusion because both options suck. Let me ease up the room here with an important piece of detail: we thankfully were not discussing a person. What we were discussing is something else that currently falls into the #2 category. Welcome to my weekly dose of random.
Ode to the Choco Taco
News broke Tuesday about Choco Taco’s slated rationalization, which is the fancy word product managers use for purposeful discontinuation. I have spent 7 years as a product manager, and I can confidently say a few things:
- Rationalizing products is necessary because it always happens with pieces of bad or obsolete business
- It is also hard because consumer outrage is the first, and usually most lasting effect
- The PM is the message bearer, but not often the top decision maker in the process
I will sum all of this up with a quick statement: product rationalization occurs when profitability and/or manufacturability goes away. Machines that make products cost money to turn on and run, and often require a certain volume to justify the cost. Dwindling sales kills the volume needed, and it’s too expensive to run. Parts on machines break and eventually repairs cost more than replacing the machine. Sometimes it’s not worth it to pay for a new machine. This is reactive rationalization.
The ideal rationalization includes release of a bigger, better and more profitable replacement, and highly efficient companies do that. This is active portfolio management. However, the previous situation listed happens quite often.
How Did We Get Here?
Klondike (like what would you do for the bar?) will probably never say this out loud, but the situation is most likely how I described reactive. I don’t have any insider information, this is pure personal speculation. Why do I think this? Mainly because I cannot remember the last time I thought about a Choco Taco let alone bought one. I love the Choco Taco and have many fond memories, but it is the friend from high school I largely don’t think about. That’s how the conversation with Anthony came up. We were talking and bummed about Choco Taco. I flatly asked him when he last had one, and also commented that I did not know they were even still around. He could not disagree or give another perspective. Then we posed the question about hearing of a death. The Choco Taco has months to live.
Klondike could easily have played this the other way, killed production, and simply stopped shipping. Everyone would chalk it up to supply chain issues when their product didn’t arrive, and word would leak to consumers. I am personally happy Klondike chose to send Choco Taco off ceremoniously. The crappy part is this feels a bit less like a disease and more like a scheduled execution. Klondike is currently experiencing some level of the outrage mentioned in bullet point 2. Now the Choco Taco is going away an army of lifetime supporters has assembled at the gates to protest and whine about something they haven’t touched in years. Kind of like when Hostess announced the demise of Twinkie a few year back.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Almost every news and media outlet is giving their own take. This one started my morning. The supply hasn’t dried up yet, so they are gettable for now. However, this could all end quickly. This article from AP shows that other firms are offering to buy the rights from Unilever, which is Klondike’s parent company, but so far nothing has happened. Here is a quote from the email announcement:
“Over the past two years, we have experienced an unprecedented spike in demand across our portfolio and have had to make very tough decisions to ensure availability of our full portfolio nationwide,” a Klondike representative said in an email. “A necessary but unfortunate part of this process is that we sometimes must discontinue products, even a beloved item like Choco Taco.”
This was Twinkie’s trajectory until Bimbo saved the day. Unilever is not going to miss a payday to prove a point, so I see a deal in the future. Some treat manufacturer will pony up the amount Unilever wants, and they will sell and make a new shampoo. Fans will herald them as white knights of the dessert world. Until that happens we have nothing left to do, but try to find as many stray Choco Tacos as possible, which will probably lead to our kids demanding them in time for the unavailability.
Another Quick Story
This one has less of a point, but I do make fun of some typical geographic punching bags. Anthony and I were driving together this past weekend and ended up driving through part of Gary, IN. Don’t worry about why, we know there is no reason to be in a town so awesome that pop history says Michael Jackson is from Chicago. This particular drive took us through a bunch of the Chicago and I-80 toll roads, so we were pulling over often to grab tickets and pay tolls. Yes, I know about the iPass, but again, don’t worry about why we didn’t have one. After a long drive littered with long lines of people trying to work cash accepting toll machines we pulled up to the Gary booth to pay our $2.10. Dollar 1 and 2 inserted without incident.
The sign on the machine said broken change return (because of course it was), so Anthony dug out a dime. Put it in the slot and it falls through. Then he tries a quarter with the same result. This prompted a choice: insert another dollar donating $ .90 to a “company” that cannot fix it’s change return or ring the call button. Anthony picked option 2, so we had a conversation with Amber. She let us know that our only option was a card transaction for the $ .10, so we gave a payment essentially over the phone. Kudos and thanks to Amber for the kind and attentive customer service. We headed on our way but not before we got a good whiff of the Gary chemical plant smell, and Gary died on the hill and got their $ .10. Don’t worry about that transaction fee that is probably more than $ .10 either.
One More Sidebar
I simply cannot talk about the upper northwest corner of Indiana without mentioning the 3 Floyds Brewery of Munster, IN. This place is quite simply one of the finest in the country. A stop was not in the cards unfortunately, but man I love that place. My personal favorite beer of theirs is Zombie Dust, but their real gem is Dark Lord Stout. I have not yet had Dark Lord because it is incredibly rare. They release it one day a year on what they call Dark Lord Day. One of these years I will make the 3 hour drive for this and gladly buy the $160 ticket.
I have not had Dark Lord, but I do have to brag an mention I HAVE had Westie XII. This is one of those if ya know, ya know type of things. Make sure to click on that link and see the pricing of $300 for a 6 pack. Did I buy a 6 pack? No, but a buddy did. About 10 years ago he got a notification about a flash sale for Westie XII. Apparently the Abbey needed a new roof so the monks that make it in Belgium did a brew and special release. My friend, Derek jumped in his car and drove 3 hours to a liquor store in Des Moines to enter a drawing for a chance to buy one 6er. They pulled his name. He opened a couple at his wedding rehearsal dinner. I understand why many consider it best beer in the world.
A New Greatest Show
Training camp is under way in St. Joe MO. The early notes on JuJu indicate the bond is growing with Mahomes. I maintain that the WR corp will be elite this year in terms of production, but potentially frustrating for fantasy purposes. Fantasy sports are just what they sound like: fake. However, they are based on real stats and very much tell a story of how real games play out. Check out this site and the search I did for the Mahomes passing stats without Tyreek in the lineup:
- Passer rating of 103.1
- 1,737 yards
- 8 touchdowns
- 1 interception
An important note: the first game listed was Mahomes first career start in week 17 of the 2017 season against the Donkeys. Yes, the game that is essentially counting as his first of 5 years when we talk about him breaking Dan Marino type records. This receiving corps will be elite. I did look at the 4 games where Hill was out for injury:
Week 2: September 15, 2019
This game was a Mahomes monster. I watched this one from a CHIEFS bar in Cary, NC the day after a friend’s wedding at James Madison’s estate. Kelce had his typical 100 yd with a TD performance and Watkins added his typical 50 yds. The real winner of the day was Demarcus Robinson who hauled in all 6 of his targets to the tune of 172 yds and 2 TD. He was a bit of a speculative add prior to game in some fantasy circles before that game, but he was the #1 waiver pickup the following Wednesday.
Week 3: September 22, 2019
A fun barn burner against Lamar, and another 130 passer rating for Mahomes. Fantasy players who scooped up DRob got 43 yds and a TD. Those are decent stats, but a far cry from the previous week. Mecole Hardman and his 97 yds with a TD was the guy to own this week. He was a top waiver addition on the following Wednesday.
Week 4: September 29, 2022
The Lions were chippy in this one, and it kind of looked like Matt Patricia was putting it together. Kenny Golladay had a Pro Bowl season started, which ultimately got him out of Detroit and ruining the Giants cap. The stat lines make it hard to believe the CHIEFS won this one. My real lasting memory is the following morning when my Detroit born co-worked told me the CHIEFS stole one, and I couldn’t argue. Mahomes threw for 315 yds to 8 receivers. No one had a TD or a 100 yd game, but Kelce came close with 85. Waiver pickup Hardman had 9 yds, and Robinson had 35. The running game won this one.
Week 5: October 6, 2019
Indy came to town with a stout D and mean rushing attack. Mahomes threw for 288 with Byron Pringle hauling in 6 for 103 yds and a TD. Kelce only added 70 yds, and the Colts ran the ball down the CHIEFS throats for the win. I recall this game as the moment speculation of the CHIEFS run D became validation. Fans wanted Sutton’s head on a platter from pretty much this moment forward.
Fantasy (and Real) Conclusions
What did we fantasy players learn from this stretch? Mahomes is gold, Kelce is money and everyone else is a wild card. Anyone who reacted and hit the waiver wire took a burn at least once. Players with Mahomes won matchups and players speculating on CHIEFS receivers lost them. Fantasy really is a simple game.
The real game implications are equally clear and more exciting. Mahomes went 3-1 and the 1 wasn’t as much his fault as the swiss cheese run D. What we really saw was Mahomes elevate a different receiver to #1 status every week, and it was incredible to watch. That offense felt truly unstoppable and you could physically see grown men D coordinators ripping their hair out trying to plan for Patrick Mahomes. It was incredible. This is the default reality to start the season, and I cannot wait.
I am going to miss the hell out of Tyreek Hill. Wasp doesn’t happen without him and the Super Bowl LIV victory does not happen without wasp. However, 33 targets across 6 players in the Baltimore game doesn’t happen with Hill on the field. Mahomes probably reads the field better and hands it off more in the second half of the AFC Championship if he wasn’t starting at Hill the whole time. The INT in OT was a forced pass to Tyreek. This has a chance to age horribly, but I truly believe it. My own little Ewing Theory as a nod to the great Bill Simmons.
.
Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne
.