Halftime Rearview Review: How Super are the Chiefs? – Part 1

Halftime Rearview Review: How Super are the Chiefs? – Part 1 – Have you ever intended to write a blog article for your favorite NFL team, focused on proving/disproving a theory, then decided it wasn’t a valid theory… but then got a great idea, and discovered interesting factoids during research, that led you down more paths?

Yea? Me too! That is why I am writing this series on – How Super are the Chiefs? A spine-chilling mystery thriller into the statistical world of recent Super Bowl teams.

First, a little back story. I originally wanted to compare the two Giant’s Super Bowl winning defenses (2007, 2011) to the current Chiefs defense, to baseline a Spags comparison. But discovered Spags was not the D-Co in 2011 (kills theory). Then I got the idea of comparing the 2018 Chiefs to past Super Bowl (SB) participants. So I based research on 6 years, to include the supposed greatest offense and defense in the analysis.

I compiled the numbers, and began the “great staredown”, wherein analysts eyeball number after number, searching the minutiae for trends, outliers, and powdered donuts, when viola! (sorry MS-Word can’t spell voila with the funny tilde thingy) Right in front of me was a V-8 moment. The kind of moment that makes you say “Maybe our defense doesn’t suck so bad after all”.

That thought theory led me down one rabbit hole and opened about 13 more. The premise started like this: How Super are the Chiefs? (notice the theme) The best way to determine the degree of super is to compare the current Chiefs to past SB participants. Right? Those teams made the Super Bowl, so they must be super, and we aspire for the Chiefs to be super, so really … How Super are the Chiefs?!

I discovered the game-changing factoid looking at defensive numbers, but I’m starting this series with the offense. Mainly because we already know our offense is super and possibly the best ever… EVER!

Plus our defense had more make-overs than a teenage girl preparing for her first prom.

Analysis Briefer

The tables contain simple categories (once I determined most pertinent, you may have your own favorites), each listing the SB participants for the past 6 years, with a 6 year average, the 2018 Chiefs actual, and 3 year averages for 2016-18 and 2013-2015. Notice the subtle and sometimes obvious differences between these 3 year averages, because the NFL is changing (Oh the horror!)

Run Offense

Observations: Over the past 3 years (2016-2018), SBTs (short for Super Bowl Teams) lost 5 yards per game, yet ranked higher (meaning rushing yards dropped across the NFL), while maintaining the same 4.4 yards per carry, and gaining 1^st Downs 7% more often, versus the previous 3 (2013-2015) years. (see yellow highlights)

The Unusual: The Patriots for all their running, are a below average rushing team per carry (4.1 vs 4.4) based upon 4 appearances, and stunk in 2018 ranked #17. (see red highlights)

Summary: The NFL-wide run game is losing steam, but making the SB requires a Top 10 ranking in yards per game and a high level of effectiveness. The 2018 Chiefs, though rushing for fewer yards per game, are far more effective (10% better) in both average per carry and 1^st down % versus the 2016-2018 average. (see green highlights)

Andy Reid Conclusion: The 2018 Chiefs run offense is SUPER!

Pass Offense

Observations: SBTs pass for more yards but gain little per attempt and effectiveness. Other than the Eagles, it takes a Top 10 passing game to make the SB. Note the Yards/Game rankings cut in half. (yellow highlights)

The Unusual: SBT’s that rank high in passing yards tend to lose the game – 2013-Bronco’s, 2015-Panthers, 2016-Falcons, 2017-Patriots (see red highlights)

Summary: The 2018 Chiefs pretty much kicked SBT’s buttooski all over the field – 15% more yards, 10% more yards per attempt, and 6% more 1^st downs. (see green highlights)

Mahomes Conclusion: The 2018 Chiefs pass offense is beyond SUPER!

Total Offense

Observations: During the past 3 years (2016-18) versus prior years (2013-15), SBT offenses were more effective on 3^rd Down, gained 19 more yards per game, increased yardage per play, but surprisingly scored the same amount of points. The additional 19 yards is roughly one possession per game. (see yellow highlights)

The Unusual: The alleged “offensive explosion” has yet to result in SBT’s scoring more points. Is there an imaginary glass ceiling? (see red highlights)

Summary: The 2018 Chiefs smoked the entire dataset – 10% better on 3^rd downs, 8% more yards per game, 11% more yards per play, and 17% more points. (see green highlights)

Perkins States the Obvious Foregone Conclusion:

The 2018 Chiefs total offense is beyond SUPER!

Summary of Summaries

Super Bowl teams run less but more effectively, pass more effectively, but score the same amount of points, but meanwhile the 2018 Chiefs crushed it!

Are there better athletes on offense vs. defense? Are offensive coordinators smarter than their defensive counterparts? Also, is it impossible for an offense to average more than 30 points a game over a 6 year period? And aren’t you ecstatic we have Reid, Mahomes, etal, leading our offense?

Your thoughts my friends? Think Abundance!!

David Perkins — ArrowheadOne

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