Halftime Rearview Review: How Super are the Chiefs? – Part 2

Halftime Rearview Review: How Super are the Chiefs? – Part 2 – In Part 1 the statistical consensus determined the Chiefs offense is SUPER, not only Super Bowl quality, but in actuality, above average Super Bowl quality. Statistical categories proved it true beyond a shadow of doubt.

We also learned Super Bowl teams over a 6-year test period, are

a) running less – but more effectively

b) passing more – but more effectively

Yet somehow in the midst of the great “offensive explosion” proclaimed by pundits everywhere,

c) scored – the same amount of points

How can that be? (rhetorical question only – because today we are talking about the Chiefs defense)

If you remember I shared the V-8 moment, how I started left, punted, zagged to the right, zigged back to the left, then cut up field. It was digging into defensive numbers that made me zag and zig, and vice-versa: it was the Run Defense (see below).

Analysis Briefer

The tables contain simplified statistical categories (one’s I determined most pertinent, you may have your own favorites), for the SB participants over the past 6 years, with a 6 year average, the 2018 Chiefs actual, and 3 year averages for 2016-18 and 2013-2015. Notice both the subtle and sometimes obvious differences between these 3 year averages because the NFL is changing (oh the horror!)

Run Defense

Observations: SB’s team defenses are worse against the run, giving up more yards, more yards per carry and more 1^st downs. (see yellow highlights)

The Unusual: all 3 category rankings doubled (i.e. got worse) between 2016-18 vs. 2013-15. (see red highlights)

Summary: the 2018 Chiefs were near the worst in each category, but the fact remains, stopping the run is less relevant to making the Super Bowl.

Holy Crap Conclusion: the 2018 Chiefs run defense STNX! – but that is less relevant

Colombo Run Defense

Just One More Thing Observation: beginning in 2016, the Chiefs defense began allowing offenses to rush for more yards per carry than that offense’s season long average. A total swing of 1.2 yards from 2014.

Dang It – Part I Conclusion: since Sutton was DC all 5 years, I would say the reversal is personnel related, versus scheme related.

Pass Defense #1

Observations: SB pass defense is worse against the pass, giving up more yards, more yards per attempt, and more 1^st downs. (see yellow highlights)

The Unusual: all 3 category rankings doubled (i.e. got worse) between 2016-18 vs. 2013-15. (see red highlights)

Summary: teams played from behind against the 2018 Chiefs, and the quickest way to catch up is passing. We intuitively knew these stats would be worse. However, did we think SB teams were that much worse as well?

Not So Bad Holy Crap Conclusion: the 2018 Chiefs pass defense STNX! – but so do Super Bowl teams

Colombo Pass Defense

Just One More Thing Observation: beginning in 2017 the Chiefs defense began allowing offenses to pass more yards per attempts than the offenses season long average.

Dang It – Part II Conclusion: since Sutton was DC all 5 years, I would say the reversal was personnel related, versus scheme related (sound familiar?)

Pass Defense #2

Observations: Chiefs fans are spoiled with pass rushing combo’s – DT/Neil, Tamba/Houston, Ford/Jones. Sacks are a blast but… there is no correlation between Sacks, Passed Defensed, QB Ratings and Super Bowl appearances. In fact, less is better. (see yellow highlights)

The Unusual: QB Rating rankings doubled for SB defenses (got worse), and so did Sacks and Pass Defensed. (see red highlights)

Summary: the 2018 Chiefs led in sacks, middling passes defensed, and near the bottom 3^rd in opposing QB rating, yet were only 4 inches from the Super Bowl. In the future, disruption , chaos, and uncertainty appear to more relevant. (see green highlights)

Get Off Clark’s A$$ Conclusion: The 2018 Chiefs Sacks Stats Don’t Matter!

Total Defense

Observations: “Bend do not Break” appears to be the name of the game (maybe Sutton wasn’t wrong after all). Give up yards but do not let them score! (see yellow highlights)

The Unusual: for all the additional yards given up on defense in terms of rushing and passing, SB defenses don’t let the other team score. It may not require a Top 10 Scoring defense to attend the Super Bowl, but it does take one to WIN the Super Bowl. (see red highlights)

Summary: the 2018 Chiefs could not stop teams on 3^rd down, which we knew. As a result, and even worse however, is although we gave up 17% more total yards vs. 2016-18 SB’s, we gave up 30% more points.

Oh Jesus Help Us Conclusion: The 2018 Chiefs defense SUX!

Summary of Summaries

Super Bowl teams are increasingly having trouble defending today’s “new-fangled” offenses and, every stat tells you that except… scoring! SB offenses are not averaging more points, and SB defenses are not allowing more points, over the past 6 years! (interesting standoff don’t you think?)

This raises similar questions:

• • Are the athletes better on offense or defense
  • Are defensive coordinators quicker to adjust than their offensive counterparts
  • How is it possible for a defense to give up a bunch more yards, yet allow no more points per game?

Your thoughts my friends?

Think Abundance!!

David Perkins — ArrowheadOne

See you at noon today for David Bell’s piece called,

Chiefs: Heaven’s to Betsy, Chill for Heaven’s Sake!

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