Halftime Rearview Review: The Lost Art of Colombo (the TV Series) – I just wrote the Halftime Rearview Review series, and was feeling pretty good about the work, when out of the blue, I discover a website with even greater (groovy) statistics. And right when I was convinced the 2018 Chiefs offense was Super!
This is the Colombo part, where he turns around after the guilty party thinks he is leaving, and he says “One more thing…” This move so flummoxes the guilty party, they contradict themselves, and Colombo nails them.
Now for another deep look into the mystery of NFL statistics and the Super Bowl.
Drives Dives and Drive-Ins #1
Note: DSR is the number of drives that finished with either a 1st Down or a Touchdown. This measure of success method is from Football Outsiders.
Observation: 2018 Chiefs ToP (Time of Possession) was 15 seconds less per drive than the last 12 SB Teams. Not enough difference to get upset over, when you also outscore the other SBT’s by 0.7 per drive (We averaged 10 drives a game so that equals 7 points). (see yellow highlights)
The Unusual: A bunch. SB losers had a better Yards per Drive average than the winners. 5 of 6 losers had a greater Points per Drive average than the winners. 3 winners had more ToP (while 2 tied). Also note the Chiefs are at the bottom in term of ToP vs. SBT’s. All 6 winners had a lower DSR versus the losers. (see red highlights)
The Unusual Unusual: Does this mean we want the offense to be less awesome?
Summary: The Chiefs 2018 offense crushed it… again. The biggest knock in ToP compared to the average. Is it our fault Tyreek Hill is so fast? The DSR rate is 13% higher than the SB winners. Extremely effective offense in 2018.
Of Particular Note: Watch our Points per Drive ratio in 2019, to see whether we win or not. I am thinking this is a great gauge (maybe the single best gauge of offensive success)!
Drives Dives and Drive-Ins #2
Observation: SB Teams are scoring more touchdowns per drive over the past 3 years (2016-18) and hold larger leads, than the prior 3 years (2013-15) period. (see yellow highlights)
The Unusual: Denver won a SB with a pathetic offense. (swigs whiskey to rinse vomit from mouth)
Some Kind of Summary: The Chiefs 2018 offense crushed it… again. (notice the green highlights) Focus on TD’s per Drive (37% higher), then TD’s per Red Zone visit (21% higher), and lastly Points per Red Zone visit (10% higher). My biggest knock against the Offense, is we go 3 and Out nearly twice a game. Absurd! With our talent?? C’mon man!
Some More Summarizing:
Isn’t this good stuff? After regurgitating all those other stats that seem really, really important and meaningful… I think I like drive stats better. Talking heads say “You got to score touchdowns in the Red Zone.” True and we crushed it but, when Hill and others can take it to the house from 60 yards out, the more relevant stat may be Points per Drive. However, when we were in the Red Zone, the 2018 Chiefs went full-on Mitch Holthaus and…
P-U-T T-H-E H-A-M-M-E-R D-O-W-N !!
I think you will agree… again… the 2018 Chiefs Offense was SUPER! What say ye Chiefs Kingdom?
Think Abundance!
David Perkins — ArrowheadOne
See you at noon 11:00 AM CDT for David Bell’s piece called:
“Chiefs Host Texans, Week 6: OPEN THREAD”
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