In the battle for AFC West supremacy, few things matter as much as QB play. Bob Sutton and his DBs will have their work cut out for them if they want to win the West for a third straight year. It’s a head to head match-up that could determine, not just bragging rights, but Chiefs path to the playoffs, and chances for a championship. Fortunately, Eric Berry and co. are and ready to role.
The Chiefs Cast of Characters
Safety Eric Berry Returns
The heart and soul of Chiefs’ defense is back. Berry is relentless, hits like a freight train and elevates the play of everyone around him. Chiefs gave him a huge contract and they are really excited to get him back. Reid described Berry as “the QB of the defense”. Berry can cover TEs and WRs, but, most importantly, he can be the enforcer Chiefs need to keep little throws from going for big yards.
Corner Kendall Fuller Settles In
Fuller is a fantastic CB. I don’t think most people realize that he’s just as good on the outside as he is in the slot. When Chiefs have three CBs on the field, Fuller is going to be in the slot though, as that position is harder to play. Fuller has great coverage skills, and a nose for the ball. Expect teams to largely ignore whoever he’s covering.
Corner David Amerson Changes Sides
Amerson is a big CB with a nose for the ball. He dealt with injuries for most of last year, which led to his release from Oakland, but he has a recent track record of success. Amerson will play a role, much like Sean Smith did, with the Chiefs. He’s a physical press CB, with good hands, but his lack of fluidity will lead to him getting burnt on some deep throws. If Chiefs keep safety help over Amerson, his WR probably won’t have much luck getting open.
The Underrated Mr. Steven Nelson
Nelson is a feisty CB who is underrated by most. He won’t snag many interceptions, and his lack of height will make him vulnerable to bigger WRs, but he’s sound in coverage and rarely out of position. Nelson will likely see the most targets of any of Chiefs’ DBs. A lot of their success will depend on his ability to win those match-ups more than he loses them.
Daniel Sorenson Returns to Normal Duty
Sorenson was forced into duty as a SS last year. Believe it or not, that’s not a good fit for his skills, which seems odd because he’s a decent nickle LB. Thing is, in Chiefs’ scheme the SS actually should be faster than the FS. Proximity to the line means that sideline to sideline speed is critical. When Sorenson plays deep, his instincts help compensate for his lack of speed. His ability to deliver big hits fits well as an enforcer on the back end. While I expect Chiefs to acquire a new safety, through the draft, just moving Sorenson from SS to FS should be a big improvement.
Eric Murray Needs to Progress
Murray had a pretty rough year last year. Chiefs clearly didn’t think he was physical enough to handle duties at SS, which forced Sorenson to move there. Murray is pretty decent in coverage, but he doesn’t hit well and hands seem to be sub par, for a safety. He may not see the field a lot, but when he does, expect teams to find a way to exploit this hole in Chiefs’ secondary. A move back to CB might better fit his skill-set, but Bob Sutton has often been slow to alter his perception of a player, so he’s probably stuck at S.
Leon McQuay Must Step It Up
In his limited action against Denver, McQuay looked surprisingly competent. Seemed solid in coverage, and a better tackler than he was in college. However, he also got hurt. I think, with his frame, that may be an ongoing issue. McQuay may see some action as a 3rd safety and can cover bigger slot receivers well, but he could also easily find himself off the roster.
Assessing the QB Competition
QB Case Keenum, Denver Broncos
Keenum is the only new QB in the AFC West. He parlayed a successful season, for the Vikings, into a mid range contract. Unfortunately for Denver, they’re still probably paying him too much. Keenum’s success came in Minnesota with an impressive WR core and a fantastic O-Line (Football outsiders ranked Viking’s line as the 6th best pass blocking line in the NFL). In Denver, he’ll be playing with a far different supporting cast, as Denver ranked, an abysmal, 29th in pass protection. Keenum has some strengths, but his struggles under pressure, and his inability to throw the deep ball (ranked 35th by Brick Wall Blitz’s Deep Ball Project), should give Chiefs’ secondary more than a fighting chance against Denver. Expect Chiefs to pressure Keenum early and often, knowing that he won’t burn them deep, much (Sorenson will probably blitz a lot). Amerson and Fuller should have lock down days and multiple Chiefs will come away with interceptions. Nelson may allow a lot of catches against Keenum, but they won’t go for many yards. If Denver game plans well, Chiefs’ FS will be bored, as the run game will be heavily featured, and few deep shots taken. If they don’t, these match-ups will turn into pick fests. Remember what Chiefs did to Ryan Fitzpatrick last time they met? That’s what I expect them to do to Keenum.
QB Derrick Carr, Oakland Raiders
In 2016, nobody could stop Carr, except the Chiefs. Last year, let’s just say defenses caught up. Fans will give the usual excuses for Carr’s slide in performance, including his own injury and the injury of a key lineman. None of that changes the fact that Carr still struggles to succeed when he gets beyond his first read. If WRs aren’t wide open, and pass protection isn’t perfect, Carr will continue to be a merely average QB, who’s being paid like he’s more than that. Carr isn’t very talented deep passer (Ranked 26th in the Deep Ball Project), and Bob Sutton knows it. Chiefs have used the same plan to attack Carr for a long time, and he doesn’t seem to show any signs of getting better. Chiefs DBs will need to be sound tacklers. Oakland’s offense will be a mix of run game, and short passes designed to get yards after the catch. Eric Berry will need to prove his worth against Oakland’s most dangerous weapon: Jarded Cook. He was the one guy Chiefs didn’t seem to have an answer for last year. While I’m not impressed by Gruden’s moves thus far, I don’t think he’ll abandon Cook for no reason, like Del Rio did.
QB Phillip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
Rivers is a fierce competitor and a skilled QB. He will challenge Chiefs’ secondary at all levels of the field. As the Deep Ball Project’s 13th rated deep passer, Rivers has two quality WRs (when they’re healthy) and one of the best (3rd) pass blocking OLs, in the NFL. Chargers will be Chiefs’ primary competition for the division, and a tough match-up for Chiefs DBs. Fuller might actually be a better match-up for Keenan Allen than Peters was, so I think he has some good games, against Rivers. This is one spot where Amerson is probably going to struggle a lot. He’ll give up a couple of deep throws, for sure, maybe TDs. Steven Nelson will be in good position, most of the time, but he’s going to give up a lot of yards to Mike Williams, because of the size difference. The safeties are going to have to get some pressure through the blitz, and Berry’s big hitting ability will need to be on display. Overall, Rivers is going to make the Chiefs’ secondary look bad. The only good news is that, in reviewing his situational stats, Rivers plays best behind two scores, or ahead two scores. Perhaps that’s part of the reason Chiefs’ have been able to best him in so many close games, recently. They’ll have to hope to do that again, in 2018, because the secondary is going to struggle.
DBs v QB Head-to-Head Conclusion
Chiefs secondary has gone through a lot of turnover since last year, but they should have no trouble shutting Carr and Keenum down. Rivers, however is another matter, and that match-up could convince Chiefs to spend most of their draft picks, on defense. Chiefs should be able to win the division again, this year, and the secondary will be a big part of that. Amerson will have his ups and downs, but will be an upgrade over the guys who have played his spot, recently. Fuller should continue to be great. Nelson will be good. Berry will be fantastic. A lot will ride on who Chiefs add to their safety group, and how much pressure the defense can put on opposing QBs. Go Chiefs.
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