The Kansas City Chiefs have lost two in a row. That’s never a good feeling. There’s been a pretty broad range of reactions to the Raiders game. Some fans have thrown in the towel and are ready for another fruitless trip to the playoffs. Others choose to maintain an optimistic attitude through a mixture excuses for recent performance and arguments for future success. As any emotional loss will do, this one has certainly produced some pretty insane comments by fans. This week, we sort through the hopes and mopes of Chiefs fans, separating real concerns, and real hope, from overreactions and pipe dreams.
When Steven Nelson Gets Back Everything Will Be OK: Steven Nelson is a much better slot CB than Gaines. He was also good enough, last year, that Chiefs mostly preferred him over Mitchell on the outside as well. That said, Chiefs problems are less related to pass defense and more related to run D. Nelson could help the run defense some, by allowing Chiefs to keep an ILB, instead of a S on the field at times, but when Chiefs are in dime, they’ll still be relying on Sorenson and Murray to fill Berry’s shoes. That’s something nobody can really do. I though Sorenson could handle it, but I wonder if he’s hurt or just playing too many snaps.
Verdict: Nope: Nelson is going to improve the defense, but he’s not going to fix poor play at S. That’s going to continue to be a problem till Sutton finds a way to scheme around it.
Chiefs Could Have Been In Great Shape If They Hadn’t Traded Up For A QB: Here’s the thing. Chiefs problems on defense basically boil down to the safety position, but that’s a position Chiefs felt they were pretty loaded at going into the draft. I know a lot of blame has fallen on the CBs, but look around the league. A lot of guys are struggling this year, because the NFL seems to have told refs not call OPI unless it’s really really really obvious, and maybe not even then. Adding a good CB on the outside is not going to make Chiefs magically able to stop the run, when they haven’t been able to do it in years. Perhaps, even more importantly, Smith has had his two best statistical years with rookie QBs breathing down his neck. Alex has been the best QB in the NFL this year and Mahomes is a major reason why.
Verdict: Nope: Bottom line, Chiefs were never going to draft a safety high in this draft. They are paying Parker, Berry and Sorenson starter money. While picking a CB could have helped some, it wouldn’t have made enough of a difference to change this defense from bad to elite. The other positions where the Chiefs could have benefited, from more depth, is on the OL, but this draft was one of the weakest in recent memory on OL. I think there’s an argument to be made that the Mahomes trade could hurt Chiefs depth down the line, but it really didn’t impact it, drastically, this year.
Derrick Johnson Might Be Done: I’ve had several people point out to me that DJ just looks slow this year. His eyes are telling him where he needs to be, but his legs can’t get there. Perhaps the biggest reason for Chiefs struggles in run defense has been DJ’s declining production. As one of the older players on the team, and coming off a second Achilles tear, Is it possible that age has finally caught up with #56?
Verdict: Mope: This is a real concern. Sure it’s possible that’s he’s not back to 100% and gets better over the course of the season, but I think the writing is on the wall. Chiefs seem to know it too as they’ve made significant efforts to acquire more talent at ILB. It might be time to start using KPL and Wilson more in DJ’s spot, as much as I hate to say it.
The Defense Will Bounce Back: For as bad as they’re been, at times, this season, Chiefs defense isn’t all that different from last year’s squad. Sutton has a pretty good track record when it comes to scoring defense. Last year Chiefs forced a ton of turnovers, they’ve been in positions to do that again this year, but for various reasons, including penalties and sloppy execution, they haven’t come away with some of the plays they should have. Football is a game of inches. Chiefs defense has posted some pretty bad stats, but guys seem like they’re close to where they need to be to make plays. Just need to clean up the execution a little bit.
Verdict: Hope: Track record is usually a pretty good indication of future performance in the NFL. Coaches rarely go from good to terrible with no clear cause. While the return of guys like Nelson and Hali won’t fix everything, you have to think that Sutton’s squad won’t perform this poorly forever.
Chiefs Offense Is Good, It’s Gonna Be Even Better Soon: Chiefs started the year posting insane rushing numbers and career best receiving numbers for Smith. Then Morse went down, then LDT went down, then Conley went down. All of a sudden, the Chiefs had a rough outing against the Steelers. It was the worst possible time to play a team Chiefs have struggled with. Despite poor pass protection, and lackluster run blocking, Chiefs managed to score 10 points every quarter against the Raiders, until the 4th quarter, where they scored zero as Andy Reid went completely one dimensional. The interior OL should be healthy soon, and Chiefs offense, who’s been pretty solid, in spite of injuries, should go from good to great.
Verdict: Hope: Chiefs gave DeMarcus Robinson a ton of snaps on Thursday, and he acquitted himself well. Robinson posted 5 catches for 69 yards on 8 targets. That’s more yards, more catches and more targets than Conley saw in any of his games this year. Robinson’s catch percentage hasn’t been as good as Conley’s, but that takes time and reps with the QB. Once Smith actually has time to throw in the pocket, Robinson’s production could sky-rocket. He’s shown to be a slippery guy and a tough cover. By the end of the year, if Chiefs can avoid any more injuries, it wouldn’t surprise me if they were the league’s best offense.
It’s easy to get down on the team. After a terrific start, many of us started to think the Chiefs could just keep winning. That’s not realistic. The NFL is a tough place to win games, Chiefs fans should be happy with one of the best records in the NFL, even if the two losses are the most recent memory. Injuries have certainly taken a toll on this team, and it’s easy to think back and wonder what they might have done, in the draft, to fix those problems, but Chiefs worst problems this year have been ones we didn’t really expect as fans. It’s easy to throw Dorsey and Veach under the bus for their ‘next year’ approach to the draft, but they’re also the guys who build this roster up from the dumpster fire it was, under Pioli. There’s plenty of reasons to hope and mope, but I’m in wait and see mode. If Chiefs defeat Denver on Monday, I’m not worried about a terribly officiated, sloppy game on a Thursday (when football shouldn’t even be played). If Chiefs‘ struggles continue, against bad QB Trevor Simeon, I’ll start to have more serious concerns. Either way, Go Chiefs.
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