“What Ifs” and the 2017 Draft

Suddenly, I thought, as if struck by a bolt of lightening, that John Dorsey and Andy Reid began a feud and Dorsey lost.

Suddenly, I thought, trading away hugely important draft picks to obtain Patrick Mahomes II at the 10 spot was absolutely not characteristic of John Dorsey, his view of the draft, his due diligence and he certainly wasn’t going to improve the team in 2017 and possibly even 2018.

Whether that’s true or not, what is true is the missed opportunities for top players who would solidify the roster, especially on defense.

So then I thought to myself, what if and decided to take walk through the crack of the worlds and reappear on April 27th, 2017 and apply the what if’s. I get to this because of missed draft opportunities.

THE PIEDMONT OF THE DRAFT

What were the Exposures on April 27th?

1. Outside Linebacker exposure — we had Justin Houston coming off an injury and Dee Ford never emerging as expected from his hight draft status. Too, Tamba Hali also had his knee cleaned up and Frank Zombo would never be a pass rush force from the outside — a good player, yes, but your basic 4th OLB and Special Teams player.

2. The Peters Compliment — At the time, the Chiefs did not have a talent on the outside to shut down receivers. I can fast forward through the season and see Peters maintaining his side of the field, but no one who could do the same on the opposite side of the field. True, there was hope that Mitchell would continue to do what he showed over the last few games of 2016, but at the same time, this was not a given or proven.

3. The Offensive Line — No matter how much you think the offensive line would improve, or digress, it remains a concern both in pass protection and blocking for the run game. Drafting to the trenches should always entail a pick if at all possible.

4. Inside Linebacker — I have a huge crystal ball and it showed me a couple of things, the clouds had cleared. DJ had his second Achilles tear over 3 seasons and though he had sworn he would be ready to play, he was, after all, nearing his retirement timeframe. The second such injury might affect his play even after rehab so both the looming retirement and the ability of his body to recover quickly and completely from such an injury had to be a question. Yes, there were linebackers in the background, young and in the process of getting NFL game speed experience. But none had emerged. All of the above factors would make this position a factor for the draft.
Getting a LB who could call the defenses and set the table AND to be able to be a team leader that DJ has been, is certainly a future requirement. Getting that player would never be easily accomplished. That after all, is a DJ Level replacement. Getting a MIKE? I think we could have done that. But then we picked up Reggie Ragland in a trade, so I am good with that.

Still, from inside the organization, the staff had talked up Ramik Wilson who had stepped up while DJ was out and it appeared that he might be heir apparent at least as the WILL.

5. Running Back — This need was predetermined. John Dorsey had made a decision to move on from Jamaal Charles. For two seasons, Charles had contributed little or nothing to the offensive effort and was not tendered for 2017, and released. True, Ware and West had turned in a decent performance in 2016. Neither would be considered a feature Running Back. On February 28th, Jamaal Charles was released and became a free agent.

That this release and what went on would become a factor, apparently, in the later decision to “fire” John Dorsey is probably a foregone conclusion. That the release was appropriate as witnessed by Charles’ contribution to the Denver offense in 2017.

6. Quarterback — The Chiefs had 2 ten million dollar #2 QBs. Both had been released to Free Agency. Previous moves proved ineffective so expecting Bray to be #2 or drafting to the position was going to be a consideration. I don’t regard this as a high need but the Chiefs did not re-up with Foles, and if they didn’t draft PM it would have been an exposure.

7. Nose Tackle — Dontari Poe had been a crucial part of the front three. But in 2016 his performance fell off due to lingering problems throughout the season with his back. There was no one on the roster to really take over and take the load off. At the same time, Poe was in his contract year and would command monies that John Dorsey did not wish to commit to a Nose Tackle. Poe was not secured with a contract by the Chiefs and this would mean that the Chiefs had a draft need that had to be considered.

On March 14th, Dorsey signed FA Bennie Logan to replace Poe as NT. Poe, a former Pro Bowler was a very good signing. He has different talent and method than Poe and does not have the lower trunk weight and power that Poe had. Still, it was a good signing. Another factor was the belief that Rakeem Nunez-Roches would continue to develop, especially his lower body strength as well as generally muscling up. RNR remains a consideration at the time of the draft.

8. Defense End — Allen Bailey had been out with injury but would return in 2017. He is not a Pro Bowl DE for the 34 but very solid. On the other side, the Chiefs decided not to retain Jaye Howard, creating a need to fill at this position as well. The previous season, Chris Jones, a draft pick that I really liked(he was on my ‘To draft’ list for 2016, and his play in 2016 indicated that this was a good pick and his contribution level was pushed by Sutton. This was apparently a reason that Jaye Howard was not tendered. I cannot see this as a big need at draft time.

9. Slot or Nickel Corner Back — This exposure wasn’t as great as others. In 2016, Phillip Gaines had shown promise but injury knocked him out. Too, Steven Nelson was drafted and it appeared that he could be a good fit should Gaines fall to the wayside, and this is especially true if I get a CB with my round 1 or 2 pick.

DRAFT CONSIDERATIONS

• ⦁ No matter what, releasing Jamaal Charles created a need for a feature RB to be signed or drafted
  ⦁ No matter what, releasing both Poe and Howard created a concern and exposure for the defensive front three
  ⦁ No matter what, Ford and Hali had not lived up to the need at opposite Houston. 2017’s result in this regard proves the point, despite the “Hali Harangue.” Both have been injury non-contributors
  ⦁ No matter what, DJ is approaching the last year of his contract and retirement age, plus has had two Achilles tears over 3 seasons
  ⦁ No matter what, the Chiefs need an ILB who could fit next to DJ as the MIKE
  ⦁ No matter what, the Chiefs had a need for an outside CB to man up opposite Marcus Peters AND perhaps another CB for the slot
  ⦁ No matter what, the Chiefs released Nick Foles and before that, Chase Daniel, creating a need to find a 3rd QB for the game roster — and/or depend on Bray as the #2 QB
  and
  ⦁ No matter what, Philip Gaines had not lived up to the expectation as the Slot or Nickel DB. Sure, it was injury and the previous year, he showed promise. But was he an answer? 2017 proves not.

I am not privy to what was going on in with Dorsey and Co and Jaye Howard. I can say that teamed with Bailey, Howard and Bailey played well above the journeyman level but losing two of the “three Amigos” has to be considered for the draft and it appears that the 2016 and 17 defense is an indication of this.

Still, if you consider that RNR might be able to begin to take on Poe’s role at NT, then Logan’s addition would be a boon to the front three and sure, there were players who were in the wings. Chris Jones and the addition of Bennie Logan though, probably eased the requirement for the draft for a front three draft choice.

Having Steven Nelson be able to take on the Slot CB role, also eased the concern about drafting two CBs in the draft. Dorsey and Co could also sign free agents if required or at least add a meaningful UDFA or obtain a player from another team’s PS.

That resolves the three lowest draft needs as highlighted above.

THE TRUTH ABOUT THE INTERNAL

CONFLICT IS TRICKLING OUT

Ben Almquist over at Fansided wrote an interesting piece about Dorsey and his mistakes. While I could add one more to the list and say the release of Jamaal Charles was a factor, what appeared to me to be an arising internal conflict came to a head and suddenly, John Dorsey was gone.

For me? This was the wrong guy but you all probably have read that, though I think Andy Reid is a fine man, although he’s been a winning coach and deserves a lot of recognition, he was absolutely not my idea of a HC for KC.

Be that as it may, Almquist wrote about the Mahomes draft pick and that it was not his pick, it was that of Reid and Veach, according to reports from inside the kingdom. I have written that this draft was uncharacteristic of John Dorsey and if the reports are true, and I believe they were, then Dorsey appears to have been forced to make the Mahomes pick. Which means by the time the draft ended, he was piecing together players with limited choices and that limitation reaches to the Chiefs first round pick in 2018. So suddenly, and this is the way I envision it, Reid had the ear of Hunt and that over-ruled John Dorsey. If this was the case, Hunt’s involvement would be a pretty effective deconstruct Dorsey’s draft board.

This is what I believe occurred. I won’t deny that Dorsey had miscues. I firmly believe that Dorsey had the board built around draft picks for defense, not a round 1 QB.

THE 2017 DRAFT REDUX

In 2017, the draft was heavily in favor of defensive players. The way that I looked at this draft was that the Chiefs might be able to pick up 3 starters and they had the draft choices to get that done. At the same time, the draft was deep enough that Dorsey could trade back, get another top 100 pick as well as look to find the gems in the 4th round that would nearly completely solve most of the problems on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, they needed a running back to replace Charles and they had to find another QB, draft or otherwise for any of these top 5 needs.

How I might have looked at the draft, not knowing at the time that I would be able to make a trade for Reggie Ragland later on, I would have been seeking to find a Free Agent ILB of high caliber or find a trade partner that would match up their need to the Chiefs need. This probably would not have been possible with the OLB need, but QB would be possible though likely to cost $10M, bringing into question the release of Nick Foles.

Offensive Linemen are so coveted, finding a good match and top player as a Free Agent would cost a bundle, and it is unlikely that the Chiefs could find the right talent in free agency that the draft might and did provide. Hindsight tells me that either signing a top Offensive Lineman would be a boon to the RB pick, or drafting the right man in the front end of the draft should have been a high consideration. The draft could have gone this direction since the ground game had it’s own exposure. Adding a quality Offensive Lineman was certainly going to be entertained.

POSITING A PROPERLY FOCUSED DRAFT

To approach the draft, I am going to state that I am not going to pick a QB in round one(and I did not). I am going to consider trading my round 1 pick to get a 2nd and 3rd round pick in a trade. I am still getting 3 top 100 picks at least and more could be done.

Knowing that CB Tre’davious White was picked at 27 by the Bills, and knowing that the trade up to get Mahomes cost us draft picks, depending on what happened earlier in the draft and making a decision to wait on my late 1st round pick, if White is present at th 27th pick I consider that I would take White at that position. This would, in my view, solve one of the 5 draft needs of this draft.

If White were off the board? I can see trading back to get an early 2nd round pick plus adding a 3rd rounder for example. At this point, I would be hard pressed to see the pick that Dorsey might envision but an offensive lineman would be a high consideration. I probably had this wrong, but there were two Safeties I might have picked, Marcus Maye and Williams and I know that Maye is starting.

I think that Sid Jones at CB was a good choice and still do. He is not starting but he is on a roster with players in front of him with experience.

Back in round 1, trading up? Linebackers worthy of the draft were available but both I would consider players to be moved inside: Jarrad Davis especially, so this would not have been a move I would have made. If CB were of the highest focus, then it could have been Davis.

Lets say that here that I had my eyee on Hunt and it might have been I wanted to build more into the offensive front 5: Cam Robinson, for example, OT was available in early round 2 but it was like the 2nd pick so the draft from that point was largely all on the defensive side of the ball. There are several names there that would be contributors to the defense right away. But for me? There were probably 2 OLBs worthy of taking and trading up for in this draft. If Dorsey were not going to trade up to get them, and I think he would not have done this, the draft might have looked like this:

R1 _ White, CB
R2 _ LB of some high caliber
R3 _ Hunt, RB
R4 _ any good pick with a shot at being an immediate contributor. I think here he would be looking for another CB, or an offensive lineman or a QB?

This look doesn’t consider trading up and presumes White would still be there at pick 27. KPass I would have passed on for immediate need and besides, I think he would be available in round 4 personally. I cannot trust myself to Bray as #2 QB so my was a QB in round 4. Someone to work with. Or how about Kpass. Sure, he was out there but how many GM’s saw him as  contributor even in year 2?

During the lead up to the draft, I was mocking daily and getting Davis Webb in round 4 quite often. But to ensure that I obtained that specific QB, I often also had to draft him in round 3 (which is where he went).

I think you can see my logic here about getting White and an ILB. Those are two exposures that are top 5 in my book and both could have been solved, which at the same time, resolves one more, which is the Slot or Nickel Corner — Nelson could then be put in that position, which covers three of the eight exposures. Meanwhile, selecting Hunt at RB covers another exposure so the draft at that point would have been very powerful indeed.

There are a lot of different ways to go on this; I put Webb in the picture in most mocks and he would, I think, fit as a #2 QB at the very least and possibly a QBoF but I was able to take him in round 4 very often.  If I swap Webb out of the view, then I add another draft pick on defense, which, considering that I could hire a #2 QB somewhere in the draft, or, if i were going to gamble on Tyler Bray, then I would not have worried this much.

Then as fortune shined on the Chiefs when they were able to trade for Reggie Ragland, things look even better. That’s my “What Ifs” for the day. Must have been daydreaming about having a top defense to compliment the Chiefs offense. Or maybe it was a nightmare about Nevada.

David Bell – Avery, ID

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