Improving the K.C. Chiefs: Getting Evaluation Right

Here’s the 2015 Kansas City draft.

It’s hard to remember a Kansas City Chiefs draft that looked better than this draft from top to bottom. TE James O’Shaughnessy and WR Da’Ron Brown are the only players who were not winners for John Dorsey and we still don’t know about Shaggy. Then again, as soon as another half competent TE comes on board, he’s likely to be looking for a new team. Still, this draft was the best so far for John Dorsey and Company.

We know that most 2016 NFL award winners were drafted early — QB Matt Ryan (1st round), RB Ezekiel Elliott (1st round), DT Aaron Donald (1st round) — but others have made their way to the top of the game without being drafted in the top ten of fifteen — RB David Johnson (3rd round), OG Marshall Yanda (3rd round) — so getting the evaluation right on players who make up the vast majority of rosters around the NFL… including every Super Bowl Champion ever… is critical to taking a team to the next level.

Sure, getting first round evaluations right is critical to a teams success because no one wants to end up with a JaMarcus Russell or a Ryan Leaf or for that matter, Ryan Sims. However, first round talent only represents about 1/20th — or possibly even less — of the number of players a general manager brings to his team during draft weekend and the week following that when undrafted free agents are signed.

 Nick Jacobs recently tweeted a Chiefs team-needs-chart that I am mostly in harmony with that looks like this:

Since we know Andy Reid was born and raised in Billwalshland then we can assume he uses many of those same principals to help John Dorsey draft. Bill Walsh used to say, “Never take the one-year wonder and look forward; take the one-year wonder and look back.” So, while we might want to see the Chiefs take a prospect who had a great 2016… it’s the pattern of performance leading up to that year which will likely inform the final decision making.

Since we can be certain the Chiefs would LIKE to get a good linebacker in this draft, let’s take a look at how to evaluate a linebacker. From a piece about evaluating linebackers by John DeMarchi for Quora.com here are some abbreviated pieces with some of my comments interspersed.

“1) Toughness — Can the player withstand pro-level pounding?”

Can Josh Mauga and Justin March-Lillard hold up? This is another reason the Chiefs will likely go for an ILB early in the draft.

“2) Technique — In college, players win on physical ability; at the pro level, technique and leverage are crucial.”

“3) Coachability — Does the player learn fast, and retain what he learns?”

“4) Scheme fit — This is incredibly important for a linebacker.”

If you’re looking over a list of ILBs who the Chiefs might draft, knowing if they fit the mold of a 3/4 ILB or a 4/3 ILB is critical. GMs increasingly want a 3/4 ILB to be able to stay on the field and play in coverage.

“5) Specialization — Does the player do one thing REALLY well (pass rush, coverage, etc.) / well enough to get on the field all or some of the time.”

“6) Instinct — Does the player read play correctly?”

This may be the number one characteristic needed to play linebacker. This year while wathcing tape on so many LBs I see them guessing where the hole is and finding themsleves way out of position. They could have all the physical tools in the world ut if they don’t have “a feel for the game” they are doomed.

“7) Special Teams — Most backup linebackers, and some starters, play on special teams coverage teams.”

D.J. Alexander has proven his worth on Special teams and drafting an understudy who those abilities helps this year and moving forward.

“8) Athlete vs. Football Player — Linebackers who bust tend to be great athletes who simply lack one or all of the aforementioned attributes.”

Derrick Johnson has been an ILBs who not only was a football player — meaning that he knew how to play the game… study and put the time in — but he has also been an incredible athlete. A rare combination.

I have grown to trust the John Dorsey team of evaluators but also recognize they can miss the strike zone completely at times. I’m amazed sometimes at the knowledge the team possesses to the extent that they must also know who other teams will be interested in. When they miss on that count — as they apparently did last year when John Elway jumped in front of the Chiefs and drafted QB Paxton Lynch — it can set the offseason plans back a year and mess with the organizational dynamic.

Steve Sabol once said, “I think in the NFL, knowledge is power, and you try to get the knowledge by whatever means.” That’s why it’s so important that general manager John Dorsey and his band of merry men… get the evaluation right. This is the basic difference between the Cleveland Browns and the New England Patriots. Yes, the Browns will be drafting first in this year’s draft… and the Patriots will be drafting last in the first round, but I’d bet New England gets it right. The Browns? That’s why they call it a crapshoot.

Wow, I guess you can count on some things in the draft after all.