In Defense Of The Chiefs Defense

 

 

 

 

In Defense Of The Chiefs Defense

 

by Laddie Morse | January 7, 2019

 

Alright, alright… calm down… I’m not about to tell you that the Kansas City Chiefs have a decent defense. This is also not going to be a court appealing the stay of execution for Bob Sutton, the defenseless Defensive Coordinator. However, in defense of the Chiefs defense… I must add…

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, sir, your honor, I do have other evidence. I apologize for leading with weak material which argues that the Chiefs major defensive signing of the offseason, ILB Anthony Hitchens, has simply not yet adjusted to the scheme. No, I won’t make any further references to the future hopes for this defense… if at all possible. Yes sir, we’ll try to keep it current.

 

 

Chiefs Defense: HOME v AWAY

In a recent radio interview, Seth Keysor said he’d analyzed the Chiefs defense both HOME and AWAY and found that they had performed much better at Arrowhead. So, I did my own calculations and it came out like this in terms of points allowed:

 

 

 

 

 

The D held opposing teams to almost half as many points when playing a Home game than when they were Away. It doesn’t need to be said, but it looks like it will make all the difference in the world to the Chiefs defense to be .playing all their postseason games in Arrowhead (except for the Super Bowl which rotates the HOME team and AWAY team each year and this year, the AFC team is the visiting team). That’s a big deal for a team like the Chiefs which has struggled all year long on that side of the ball.

 

 

14, 10, 14 and 3 points: the Chiefs defense held opposing offenses to 14 points or less in half their Home games. While you can argue that the Chiefs won’t be facing teams like the Jags, Cards, Bengals, or Raiders in the playoffs, the D gave up 25.5 points in their other four Home games and since we know the Chiefs offense hasn’t scored less than 26 points in any game this season, the odds are still in the Chiefs favor.

 

 

Opposing Team’s Passer Rating

So, it’s become a passing league, right? It may not be enough to have the best passer in the league. So, the Chiefs defensive backfield has held opposing QBs to a passer rating that is 12th lowest in the league. In other words, there are only 11 defenses in the NFL that have held an opposing QB to a lower passer rating than the Chiefs defense. That’s right, the Chiefs DBs have done a good job overall against opposing quarterbacks. The following is from Team Rankings:

 

 

 

 

 

Notice that, for the Chiefs D, there has been an improvement in the last three games and that is largely due to Jordan Lucas and Charvarius Ward getting the starting assignments in the defensive backfield. Ward had 54 snaps and Lucas had 33 snaps versus the Raiders. The usual starters, Scandrick and Parker, had 4 and 6 snaps respectively, in week 17.

 

Whether or not the Chiefs defense will be better, going into the playoffs, with two virtual unknowns as starters, is the question. Most would say anyone is better than those two — Scandrick and Parker — but the above graphic might tell another story.

 

 

PFF Defensive Backfield Rankings

Pro Football Focus, a rating system for every NFL player, has issued their final ratings (for members). Here’s their rating for Cornerbacks in 2018:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mathematically, if there are 32 teams and each always has two starting CBs, then Kendall Fuller and Steven Nelson are basically in the top 50% of all NFL corners. With the recent change, Ward-for-Scandrick, the coverage should be much better. On the graphic, Ward has not played enough snaps to get a more accurate ranking.

 

 

Here’s PFF’s rankings for all Safeties in 2018:

 

 

 

 

 

 

The above graphic highlights the need the Chiefs currently have at Safety because when Eric Murray is your best ranked Safety, you have a serious problem. I’m of the opinion that when the Chiefs are able to do an upgrade at Safety this coming offseason, then Eric Murray won’t even be on the roster. While Eric Berry has also not played enough snaps in 2018 for PFF to get an appropriate ranking for him, we already know his presence on the field would be huge for the defense. Not only in his specific performance, but in the influence he would have on the rest of the defense and more pointedly, the defensive backfield. 

 

 

Playoffs Mean: Starbucks Officiating

A coffee break for NFL Officials? It looks like that may be the case. In a recent interview, retired NFL official Gene Steratore admitted that during the playoffs the officials “let em play” a little bit, easing up on calling so many penalties. Many NFL fans have guessed as much in the past while watching the best teams take the field in the postseason, but no one could imagine an actual official being willing to concede that point.

 

So, what does that mean for the Chiefs? Well, since the Chiefs are the team with the most flags called on them this year, with 163 (14 more than any other team), any kind of break would be a big boost. However, K.C. had 15 more flags thrown on them while on the road, with 76, compared to 61 at home. That means, the Chiefs could be getting a double-helping from the officials (all figures taken from NFL Penalties.com) for two reasons:

 

 

1. Playing all home games, and

2. If officials really do “let ’em play.”

 

Since NFL referees threw 83 fewer flags on Home teams, overall, the next two games could see a slight break for the Chiefs offense, defense, and special teams. We hope. 

 

 

Chris Jones: Streaking For Sacks

If you’re a team preparing for the Chiefs defense, you can’t ignore defensive lineman, Chris Jones. Jones was ranked as the 8th best Defensive Lineman in 2018. With the Wildcard games done, that leaves Jones as the 3rd best defensive line presence in these playoffs According to PFF. Here are the Top 8 DL in the league:

 

 

1. Aaron Donald- 95.5    LAR
2. Fletcher Cox- 92.6      PHI
3. Damon Harrison- 92.2  DET
4. Akiem Hicks- 91.7       CHI
5. Grady Jarrett- 91.0      ATL
6. Shelby Harris- 90.8     DEN
6. Michael Pierce- 90.8   BLT
8. Kenny Clark- 90.5       GB
8. Chris Jones- 90.5       KC

 

 

Chris Jones feat of 11 straight games in a row with a sack is a record for the ages:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some players know how to elevate their game and Chris Jones is one of those guys. While Aaron Donald is in a category all by himself with 59 tackles and 20.5 sacks, Chris Jones is coming near that level of production and has 40 tackles and 15.5 sacks in 2018. JJ Watt is the only other player to have more sacks than Jones with 16.0. That’s some lofty company.

 

 

Chiefs D vs the Colts Rushing Attack

The greatest area of concern is the Chiefs run defense. The Chiefs D has allowed 5.0 yards per carry and that would be the worst in the league if it weren’t for the Rams D, which gave up 5.1 yards per carry.

 

Being ranked “worst” in the league in a category has become an epidemic this season. The Chiefs ended the season ranked near the bottom of the league in several ways:

 

• 1. 31st in total yards allowed.
• 2. 31st in total passing yards allowed.
• 3. 27th in rushing yards allowed.
• 4. 24th in total points allowed.

 

 

So, how does a team that is 24th in total points allowed become a #1 seed in the AFC? By being the #1 scoring offense in the NFL in 2018. It’s that same offense that has carried this defense but there is some responsibility the offense must take in helping to create a defense that ranks this low. Like, Time of Possession.

 

 

2018 Time of Possession

One of the byproducts of having an offense that can score quickly is… placing your defense back on the field repeatedly. Now, if that defense is unable to consistently end the other teams drives, those teams can eat up the clock and wear your defense down. The 2018 Kansas City Chiefs ranked 27th in the league in Time of Possession (ToP). In other words, the Chiefs offense is not a possession offense. The simplest way to see the importance of ToP is… if you can possess the football, you can control the football.

 

While it doesn’t mean the Chiefs don’t control their ability to score, because each team always gets multiple opportunities to score in a game, it does mean — to a degree — that the Chiefs don’t know how to control the game by controlling the ball for longer periods of time. That’s the dilemma for a quick-strike team like the Chiefs: you can kill them by scoring at will… but they can kill your defense by keeping them on the field and wearing them out. Thus, Andy Reid has often had a problem controlling the clock at the end of games… and that is mostly because he has used this same formula for his offensive scheme for years.

 

Consequently, if DC Bob Sutton does get the axe at the end of the season, the onus for his defenses’ failings doesn’t completely fall on him. More than anything, this is Andy Reid’s team. Reid even has his own General Manager in his pocket. That’s also probably why Greg Ballard is in Indianapolis and not the GM of the Chiefs… but that besides the point.

 

 

Credit Where Credit is Due

There are some seldomly advertised statistics about the Chiefs defense that should not be ignored. The Chiefs defense ranks:

 

1. 6th in the Takeaway department with 27.

2. is tied for 9th in Interceptions with 15.

3. is tied for 4th in Fumble Takeaways with 12.

4. is tied for 1st in Sacks with 52.

 

 

In Defense of the Defense: A Summation

It’s highly likely that part of the reason the Chiefs D is getting the verbal abuse it’s been getting is because the Offense is now the best in the league, and that kind of high level performance has raised the stakes. You could call it, “Mahomes Fallout.” Now, I realize that the Chiefs defense is not even an average defense. However, they’re good, even very good, at some things… plus they are the best at one thing… and while they are nearly the worst at other things, this defense does not deserve the public stockades treatment they’ve been getting for months now.  I rest my case.

 

 

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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