In September 2014, Alex Smith signed a four year extension worth $68M and $19M guaranteed. This means he will be a Chief until the end of the 2018 season, right? Not necessarily. When it comes to an NFL contract you have to look deeper than the front page to see what the deal is really worth. Smith’s deal is really more of a three year $38M with two one-year team options behind it, worth $16.9M and $20.6M.
As early as last month I would have said the breakdown of Smith’s contract was nothing more than legal mumbo-jumbo and that Smith would be a Chief through the end of the contract and then some. That all changed once the details of the Nick Foles’ deal were released.
Foles is set to make $1.75M this year with a $200k roster bonus if he makes the team. That is actually a good deal (for the Chiefs) for a backup QB with 35 starts. Where it gets interesting is, next year as Foles has a cap number of $10.75M that could grow as high as $16M if he plays — and plays well — in 2016. This is not backup money, the highest cap hit for Chase Daniel in Kansas City was this past season at $4.8M. Keep in mind that none of the money for next year is guaranteed so Foles can easily be sent packing without it effecting the cap at all, whereas Smith would count for $3.6M against the cap if he was released with a post June first designation.
Why would Dorsey give Foles a deal like this if there wasn’t some thought of moving on from Smith at the end of the year? Could it have been a sweetening of the pot to make sure Foles was the backup for the Chiefs this year?
Maybe, but I think it is more than that.
They say that competition breeds greatness and I think that is what is at play here. For all intents and purposes Smith is in a contract year and he knows it. He also knows that the guy behind him is someone that head coach Reid drafted while in Philly, knows the system and has a contract that could pay him starter money next year.
Alex Smith is a great QB for what Reid likes to do on offense; get the ball to your playmakers and don’t turn it over. In the three years Smith has played in Kansas City he has had 61 TDs and 20 INTs while completing 63.73% of his passes. Two out of every three balls are being caught and for every INT he has… he has also thrown 3 TDs. These are numbers that might not get you into the Hall of Fame, but they will win games as Smith averages 10 wins per year in Reid’s system.
So if Alex Smith has had good numbers and he is a winner, how do you get him to the next level? Just like any other employee in any other profession; you tell him that he might not be employed next year and his replacement is already working for you.
I see this going a four different ways from here:
1. Smith feels the pressure, steps his game up and has a career year solidifying himself as the starter for years to come.
2. Smith plays at the same level with the team winning and, while he doesn’t get replaced, JARD has a tough choice to make as to who to pay next year.
3. Smith either declines or stays on course and the team isn’t winning. Enter Foles to finish out the season and to start next year.
4. Neither Smith nor Foles plays well this year and both are looking for jobs come next season.
I think option 1 is most likely to happen. Smith will have all of his targets from last year; Maclin, Kelce, West, Ware, Conley (my prediction for a break-out season) and Wilson. Add to the list the return of Charles and the addition of Streater, Hill and Travis and… Smith should have a trove of completions, TD’s and wins to show off.
Smith has looked good in the first two preseason games completing 75% of his passes for a single TD and 173 yards. More importantly Smith has led 4 of the 5 drives he played to points. As for his “Captain Checkdown” moniker, Smith not only hit Chris Conley and Jeremy Maclin on back to back plays for 37 and 20 yards for the TD, but he called an audible on the play to Conley to get him down the field.
Has the fire been lit? Will Alex Smith let it burn him or will he use that fire to burn opposing secondaries this year? If he does get burnt, can Nick Foles run with the torch and lead the team or will it be too hot to handle? Has John Dorsey covered his butt just in case…or are there more serious plans in motion here. What say you Chief’s fans?