Is the Chiefs Defense Holding Its Own?

Is the Chiefs Defense Holding Its Own?

by Paul Pulley

While most of the talk surrounding the Chiefs is about their offense and new quarterback Patrick Mahomes II, there is also plenty of talk about the Chiefs defense and whether or not they can be good enough to slow down really good offenses that the team will meet in the post season.

The determining factor in trying to form a conclusion to this dilemma, just might be whether or not the Chiefs defensive coordinator, Bob Sutton, can get better production from the Chiefs defensive players running Sutton’s schemes. Another alternative will be if Sutton can adjust his scheme to better suit the talent he has been given to work with.

As most of you know, I am not a fan of Sutton’s defenses. I do believe that his defensive schemes can work, but in my opinion, Sutton’s schemes are so involved that every single position on defense requires a talent specific player, in other words, each player needs a specific skill set to match Sutton’s schemes. If each player entering the game isn’t exactly suited to play the position he mans, the scheme begins to crumble and if multiple players are in the game that are inadequate to fulfill the duties required for the position, the system fails.

I don’t believe Sutton has the ability to adjust to the strength of his players. To put it simply, Player A may be a triangle, Player B a square and Player C a trapezoid… but all of them are required to fit a round hole in Sutton’s defense.

To complicate matters even more, since head coach Andy Reid took over in 2013 and hired Sutton as his DC, the Chiefs defense has remained a constant, scheme wise. Yes, the defense has changed a great number of players over the years and it throws different looks at the opponent throughout the games, but these different looks are becoming old hat. Teams that the Chiefs play often have a lot less trouble moving the ball against the defense than teams we seldom play. That in itself should be telling.

The fact that the quality of play by the Chiefs defenses has been regressing the past few years is born out by looking at the statistics. I realize that there are a number of caveats to simply looking at stats, such as injuries, roster changes, etc., but every team in the NFL goes through those same changes and challenges. It is the job of the coaches to take the players they have available and put them in the best position possible to succeed, and this is where Bob Sutton fails, in my opinion (for what that’s worth).

A Look at Defensive Rankings Through the Years

All stats above are from NFL.com

As is indicated above, the overall defense and most importantly points allowed per game has steadily regressed the last three seasons. Interestingly, Sutton’s defenses against the running game have always been well below average, with 2015 being the outlier.

Yet another, and what is possibly a better way to look at how the defense has performed, is to look a their DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). This is basically a formula that looks at every single play by every single team for an entire season and then compares the success of the play to a league average based on the opponent and the situation. If you are interested in a more detailed explanation, I suggest you take a gander at footballoutsiders.com. There you will find not only the explanations, but enough statistical data to give you a major headache.

In this graph I am not including the DVOA percentages, but I thought just to include the rankings for the Chiefs defenses.

These stats show a definite decline in defensive play since 2015, even with a below average strength of schedule. Again 2015 appears to be an outlier, particularly in rush defense. 2015 notwithstanding, Sutton’s defenses seem to be extremely weak versus the run. To expect any kind of significant improvement in our rushing defense this season or in the future, as long as Sutton is our DC, would be nothing more than wishful thinking.

Cap Space Comparisons

Now, one could argue that the Chiefs have gone cheap on defense to field an offense that is the most explosive in the league, but that just isn’t the case. While there are a couple of contracts on the defensive side of the ball that are quite questionable, for the most part, the dollars spent are fairly equivalent and most cases favor the defense.

A Look Back at What Made 2015 Special

The 2015 defense is an enigma, and we need to travel back in time to see what, why or who made this season so much better than what should be expected from a Sutton defense. The answer, as you might expect, is the who. Not just one who, but many who’s. 

Starting With the Defensive Line of 2015

• The big man himself, Dontari Poe, while having just a low average season for him, still contributed 39 tackles and a sack. 
• Allen Bailey, while playing in just 12 games, still had one of the best seasons of his career, finishing with 38 tackles and 4.5 sacks.
• Jay Howard, this was far and away the best season of Howard’s career. He recorded 57 tackles and 5.5 sacks in 2015.

The Linebackers of 2015

• Tamba Hali, in his last productive year of his career, recorded 48 tackles and 6.5 sacks.
• Justin Houston’s stats are below average, but in 2015 Houston played in just 11 games due to sustaining a knee injury. Houston’s 2015 stats show 30 tackles and 7.5 sacks as well as 2 interceptions.
• Derrick Johnson, in one of the best years of his illustrious career for the Chiefs, recorded 116 tackles, 4 sacks, 8 passes defensed and 2 interceptions.
• Dee Ford, getting some playing time with Houston’s injury, logged 23 tackles and 4 sacks.
• Josh Mauga, getting limited playing time due to Sutton’s schemes employing a high percentage of nickel and dime sets, leaving only one ILB on the field, still managed to have the second best statistical year of his career, recording 58 tackles, 1 sack and 2 interceptions.

The Defensive Backs of 2015

• While 2015 wasn’t Eric Berry’s best year, it was one of his very good ones and a complete season. Berry finished 2015 with 61 tackles, 10 passes defensed and 2 interceptions.
• 2015 was arguably the best season of Ron Parker’s career. Parker recorded 78 tackles, an amazing 5 sacks (he has a total of 7 in his career), 12 passes defensed and 3 picks.
• Sean Smith, playing in 13 games due to a suspension to start the season, had a very good statistical season with 45 tackles, 12 passes defensed and 2 interceptions.
• Tyvon Branch in a limited role playing in Sutton’s sub-sets, contributed 43 tackles, 1 sack, 5 passes defensed and 1 interception.
• Then, of course, is the 2015 Defensive Rookie of the Year, Marcus Peters. Peters finished the season with 60 tackles, an astounding 26 passes defensed, 8 interceptions, two picks of which he returned for touchdowns.

A Summary of the 2015 Defense

In 2015, Parker, Berry, Peters and DJ played well over 1000 defensive snaps each, roughly at least 95 % of the defensive snaps for the season. Both Smith and Hali played over 75% of the snaps on defense, while Poe and Howard each played almost 70%.

Taking it All into Consideration

It appears that if Sutton is afforded a group of players, playing at or close to Pro Bowl quality play, at essentially every single defensive position, then Sutton is indeed capable of fielding a top 10 defense. I just have to assume that if afforded that type of production at all positions, any defensive coordinator would be able to accomplish that level of play at a minimum. My contention is, if Sutton doesn’t have players that are scheme specific to each position, then his defenses falter and he shows a total lack of ability to adjust and alter his defenses to allow players to play to their individual strengths.