It Takes a Killer: Mahomes Gives Chiefs Chance vs Fierce 49ers Defense – in eight days, the Kansas City Chiefs will play in the Super Bowl for the first time in 50 years. It will, undoubtedly, be the biggest test that their defense has faced, this season. Ultimately, though, this game comes down to Patrick Mahomes vs the NFL’s best defense: the San Francisco 49ers. No sane person would bet against Mahomes, but the 49ers front four is scary enough to leave some doubt in the minds of even the most ardent Chiefs fans. Fortunately, concrete evidence exists that this defense can be challenged, and the guys who have done it share a defining trait with Mahomes.
Case #1: Russell Wilson
Wilson handed the 49ers one of their three losses, week 10, in overtime. While their defense performed well overall, Wilson was able to buy enough extra time, with his feet, for receivers to work their way open. The 49ers have an excellent front seven, and quality safeties. Their CB group, outside of Richard Sherman, isn’t particularly special, but the pass rush keeps them from having to cover for very long. A few stats show what Wilson was able to do to the 49ers, relative to their normal performance.
EPA stands for expected points added. It’s basically a measure, based on historical results of how much a given play helps a team score points on their drive. On the season, the 49ers defense is allowing an average Air (passing) EPA of 0.25. Wilson averaged an Air EPA of 0.61 against them across two match-ups (the 49ers and the Seahawks are in the NFC West division so they meet twice per year). That was lower than his season average of 0.81, but substantially higher than what San Francisco usually allows. The league average Air EPA is .48.
WPA stands for win percentage added. It measures how much a given play changes the odds of winning the game. On the season, the 49ers averaged an Air WPA of .0053 per play. Playing against them, Wilson averaged an Air WPA of .088 per play. League average Air WPA is 0.014.
Passing wasn’t the only way Wilson hurt them though. He was able to move the chains with his legs. In 14 rush attempts, Wilson had three for 11 or more yards. After watching Mahomes gash both the Texans and the Titans on the ground, it’s not hard to imagine a similar result, with 15 under center, against the 49ers.
Case #2: Lamar Jackson
The Baltimore Ravens played a tight game against the 49ers and ultimately prevailed. Jackson was able to gash them on the ground, while also being efficient, through the air. In that game, he recorded an average Air EPA of 0.61, exactly the same as Wilson. His Air WPA of .025 wasn’t quite on par with Wilson’s, but it was still appreciably higher than SF’s season average. In 16 rush attempts, Jackson surpassed 11 yards six times. Mahomes isn’t the same athlete as Jackson, but it’s fairly clear that the 49ers can give up some big runs to mobile QBs. When you look at their defensive front, it’s not too hard to see why.
Patrick Mahomes’ Speed
Patrick Mahomes had a tested 40 time of 4.80. That’s basically the same as Nick Bosa, and faster than every other DL, on that front, except for Dee Ford and Solomon Thomas. Ford has only been used on obvious pass downs, so if Chiefs avoid third and long, they won’t be likely to see too much of him. Thomas also plays in more of a rotational role, and has only logged two sacks, on the season.
This is not to say that Mahomes can’t be sacked. If they’re able to contain him in the pocket, that’s certainly a possibility. However, If Mahomes is able to elude the first tackler, or get outside the box, he’ll be very difficult for them to corral. The 49ers should remember this, as he torched them for a miracle TD, in 2018, on a play where Fred Warner (4.64 40 time) looked to have him dead to rights. Instead, Mahomes outran him to the sideline and fired a pass, on a frozen rope, to Chris Conley in the corner of the endzone.
Conclusion
The 49ers defense has been incredible this year. Their DL is the best in the league, by a substantial margin. Against Mahomes, that just might not be enough. Speed kills and Mahomes, like Jackson and Wilson, has the necessary elusiveness to succeed in adverse conditions. What’s more, the Chiefs other weapons on offense, are significantly better than either Baltimore or Seattles. Either team can absolutely win the Super Bowl, but Kansas City’s speed on offense, will give them the best shot, of any team this year, of frustrating an elite defense and ending their epic run. Mahomes is just 60 minutes of game play away from, possibly, winning his first Super Bowl. Whatever he does with that time, it should be breathtaking to watch. Go Chiefs.
Special Note: Thanks to reader Dean Dahlquist for asking us to explore this topic.
Ransom Hawthorne — ArrowheadOne
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