On Tuesday, information or rumor has it that the Chiefs GM Brett Veach has had discussions with the new Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. I have no official statement about such conversations by either Brett Veach or Adofo-Mensah. I noted the “rumor” anyway because it makes sense. The Vikings are rebuilding. They have a new GM and a new HC( Kevin O’Connell). This is a lot of change for any single off-season. Consider the fact that the new HC will install a new system. Consider also that the new GM is building a new team based on his vision for the team. All we might be able to say about it is that by Thursday night, we might have an answer as to whether or not the storyline is accurate. It takes two to Tango, and both Veach and Adofo-Mensah must be on the same page to partner up.
I had already projected that the Chiefs would trade up in the draft in yesterday’s article. I envisioned the player whom Veach would choose in such a trade-up would be a “Skilled” player. I chose Jameson Williams, WR(Alabama). It is my view that if you are going to spend big-time draft capital for such a trade, it would be a player who will likely become an impact player as soon as his feet hit the grass. I have stated previously: Round one safe pick is one thing, but targeting a safe player also has ups and downs. Chiefs fans should know this type of situation from the year 2013. The draft came down to John Dorsey making a safe pick, choosing between two offensive tackles: Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel. Dorsey chose wisely, though it took Eric Fisher four years to come into his own. Joeckel is out of football and never lived up to the Round One Rep.
The Conundrum
Round One Picks are necessarily expensive draft picks. There is always a gamble to draft a player in any round because the GM “Chooser” can only predict success in the NFL. The problem is more contorted when the player has suffered an injury. I think that such a gamble should be for a player who will be a focal point of scoring, which means a QB, RB, TE, or WR.
I do not mean I exclude players of the Trenches on either side of the ball or defenders. If I am a GM, I will consider skilled players first. It’s just something that I want to take to task first. An example of a defender that the Chiefs might be pursuing in this draft is GA’s, DT Jordan Davis. Davis will immediately impact the game for whatever team it is that drafts him. At the juncture of using draft capital to trade up to select a player of this stature who plays defense becomes a “capital” consideration. In this situation, were I Brett Veach, I’d be torn in this case if we’re sitting in Brett Veach’s chair. First, I see the need to strengthen the defense across the defensive front. Then, I need to draft a CB. At the same time, I was forced into a situation where I either pay Tyreek Hill big-time money for a long-term contract at the age of 28, or I would trade away the investment problem to obtain the draft capital that I could acquire from the trade.
The Shift is On
The way that opposing teams shut down the deep ball passes by Mahomes to Tyreek Hill became apparent as the 2021 season progressed. They used both safeties as back-end coverage and a Cornerback fronting the effort. That double-depth coverage was effective. The scheme entails dual safeties, which requires that the safeties adopt new tactics. The method changed the way teams defended the Chiefs. More and more teams adopted this scheme as the season progressed.
Look for a shift from many teams as they open their season in 2022. I think this scheme will see expanded use in 2022, especially in the AFC West, which is a well-armed division for the aerial game. The Chiefs will likely employ a similar method to counter the Raider’s new weapon, Adams. The Chiefs may not have Ty Hill, but they will have Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and TE Travis Kelce. It may be the Chiefs draft a top WR in 2022 as well. The Receiver Corps will be different than it was with Hill. As it is constituted, four receivers represent a deep threat(Hardman, MV-S, JS-S, and Kelce). Imagine adding Jameson Williams or George Pickins to that group.
The new defensive scheme was deployed by several teams on the Chief’s schedule. The CB covers up close or in, the box taking away the short-to-intermediate route. He acts in run defense support more quickly to get close in the box. On both sides, the safety can quickly bust down into the box if the threat is short or a screen or a run play. The Cornerback is the defense front coverage underneath as the route progresses. He can bust down if the play is in front of him or cover the target WR from the outside, playing between that receiver and the QB. If the receiver is on a dig or deep route, the CB has coverage the same as man-press coverage or similar to it. Over the top is handled by the safety. Both safeties would have a role similar to a Free Safety. The Corner has the responsibility off the LoS and covers the underneath of the route as it progresses. The Safety on both sides has deep coverage. The intent is to take away passes in the intermediate range.
Both safeties must possess closing speed and good man-up type coverage skills or be able to roll up into a strong safety type role, depending on the read. Both safeties must be able to range deep against the fast receivers, and Hill was the recipient of this attention. Mecole Hardman appears to be the logical deep ball threat now. Both MS-S and JS-S are speedy receivers in their own right. The birth of the new scheme is an adjustment that came to the fore because of Davante Adams and Ty Hill.
The Chiefs have two safeties to play defense in the new multi-skill-oriented role. I can see the Chiefs drafting to that role in 2022 simultaneously.
The utility of Mocks – Just How Deep Down the Rabbit Hole Do You Wish to Go?
Each new off-season, I begin doing frequent mocks. I do perhaps two or three hundred mocks each year. All of them will be based on my projections as if I were the GM of the Kansas City Chiefs. I have used the mocks to project the draft, but more importantly, It focused my research on different players based on rating and watching how the draft unfolded for the Chiefs.
It aided in understanding what other teams were looking for in their drafts. I dig into what I think the team needs and then delve into as many individual players’ backgrounds, metrics, and bio as possible. The off-season becomes another part of the year in which I focus on a different game component, especially from the GM’s frame of reference. I gained insight and knowledge about players selected in the upcoming draft. The mocks offer aid for garnering material to write articles for my beloved Chiefs during the time between the end of the season and the draft.
Mock drafts are fodder for the weary. So yesterday, I swore off using mocks for at least the intervening time until 2023.
Nevertheless, excitement is rising for the NFL Draft, only two days away. My goal in writing these articles is to provide material about the Kansas City Chiefs that I regard as attractive for myself and hopefully for others.
I have an image from a children’s book, saved from my time of being a father and reading to my sons when they were young children. “The White Rabbit,” peeking at his timepiece, wanting to rush off, not knowing or caring if Alice follows.
David Bell – ArrowheadOne