The Kansas City Chiefs and their fans have been waiting what seems forever for this. The QBOTF which they took in the first round last year — the first since 1983 — is now their starter. Form here it’s all downhill to the Super Bowl, right? Not so fast. That’s not even the biggest storyline in the AFC West this offseason. Any time a coach signs a 10-year, $100M dollar deal, he’s going to draw his fair share of attention. While every K.C. fan and their mother is speculating just how good Patrick Mahomes can be, there’s a growing number of people who believe that Jon Gruden will have a “Steve Kerr” type effect on the Raiders and take them to a Super Bowl. Soon. If not sooner.
When Jon Gruden first emerged from the announcer’s booth to sign his mega-million dollar deal, many were questioning whether or not he had the right personality to relate to players of this generation. His all-bark, cussing tirades may have reached the players of 10 and 15 years ago, but can that approach have a similar affect on today’s athlete? However, in a piece by Levi Damien called, “Jon Gruden’s Raiders Players Are in Awe of his Energy and Passion” he quotes the Raiders fullback Keith Smith who said,
“While he’s yelling at you and getting on you 24/7, that’s his way of showing that he loves you and he sees the potential in you to be a great football player. If he’s not yelling at you, then you know something’s wrong, like he doesn’t really believe in you.”
The question is, can Gruden change the culture the way Steve Kerr did for the Golden State Warriors across the parking lot? At first glance you might say, no. After all, Steve Kerr has now led the Warriors to four straight league championship series including two NBA Championships in 2015 and 2017. If Kerr’s Warriors win this year he’ll have a full blown dynasty on his hands. However, this is not about the number of championships, it’s about the turnaround? Steve Kerr stopped playing basketball in 2003 and spent the better part of ten seasons as an announcer? Sounds familiar? Although Gruden didn’t stop playing football, he stopped coaching football in 2008 and spent the better part of 10 years as an announcer. Just like Steve Kerr.
So, the years of being an announcer are similar. So what?
One of the advantages that Steve Kerr had as an announcer was getting outside of the game. Seeing it from afar. It’s a completely different vantage point and experience. You can see the game as a macrocosm instead of being trapped in the microcosm or minutia of the organization or the game. It’s the big picture approach vs. drowning in the details.
A Good Comparison?
Mark Jackson was the head coach of the Golden State Warriors from 2011 to 2014 and was largely responsible for turning the organization around. He gave the team their first 50-plus win season in 17 years and he left Steve Kerr with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in the backcourt. Is there a comparison for the Raiders? To begin with, ex-HC Jack Del Rio left the Raiders with a 6-and-10 record in 2017 so… from that stand point it doesn’t sound like it’s even close to the same situation. So, how about the players Del Rio left behind? Pro Football Focus had QB Derek Carr ranked as the 21st best QB in the NFL when the 2017 season came to a close. I’m not so sure he was even that good. WR Amari Cooper had more than 1,000 receiving yards in his first two seasons but dropped to 680 yards in 2017. He’s definitely headed in the wrong direction. So, is there a Steph Curry or even a Klay Thompson that Jon Gruden has to work with on this roster? Probably not.
On defense, there’s Kahlil Mack, who some consider the best rush linebacker in the game. I think he could be better than Von Miller. Aside form Mack though, it looks like Gruden is piecing the rest of the team together with old used parts.
A Coaching Comparison
Part of this question is whether or not Jon Gruden can out-coach the rest of the AFC West coaches?
- Gruden has won a Super Bowl
- 2nd year HC of the Chargers, Anthony Lynn, has not
- 2nd year HC of the Broncos, Vance Joseph, has not
- 6th year HC of the Chiefs, Andy Reid, has not.
In fact, this is the 20th year for Andy Reid in the NFL and he has reached the Super Bowl once but more importantly, has trouble winning when it counts going 11-and-13 in the playoffs for a .458 winning percentage (they should call that a losing percentage!).
While Jon Gruden may not come across as someone who deserves a 10-year, $100M dollar deal, he has a 5-and-4 playoff record, a .556 winning percentage… and you don’t have to tell Andy Reid… well, that’s better than Andy Reid’s playoff record. However, the 2002 Tampa Bay team that Gruden inherited from Tony Dungy was 90% Dungy’s team and it could be reasoned that all Gruden did was help them navigate to a 3-and-0 playoff record in 2002 which includes a Super Bowl win (much as Barry Switzer did with Jimmy Johnson’s team in Dallas in 1994). If you take away that one season from Gruden… one that he may not deserve to rightfully call his own… his playoff record doesn’t look so good. After all, he coached the Bucs for 6 more seasons after that and all he could muster was two playoff losses. In fact, including 2002, his 12-and-4 Super Bowl winning season, Gruden was only 57-and-55 in his seven seasons in Tampa Bay.
In a piece called. “The 3 Things That Will Determine Success in Jon Gruden’s Second Stint as Raiders Coach” by Dieter Kurtenbach for mercury.com, he lists “fixing Derek Carr” as his number one challenge. Is it far fetched to think that Derek Carr could have a turn-around this season? Not really. The words coming out of Derek Carr’s mouth so far this spring are all positive at it relates to Jon Gruden… even though Gruden appears to be riding him hard.
Dieter Kurtenbach goes on to explain that Jon Gruden’s relationship with Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie and Gruden’s relatability with his players are numbers 2 and 3, if he’s to have success. Perhaps more important is a point he makes about the reason Carr wears the number 4 on his jersey: Brett Favre. Because Brett Favre was his favorite player and since Gruden has had experience working with Favre in Green Bay — at the same time Andy Reid was there mind you — the transformation we see in Derek Carr this year could be explosive… if Gruden has his way.
Some believe that Jon Gruden is risking his legacy by coming back to the NFL to coach. I think that’s a bit of a over-statement about what Jon Gruden’s so-called “legacy” might be. He’s 95-and-81 over 11 seasons for a .540 winning percentage. If he has a couple of back-to-back 6-10 seasons — which is entirely possible — and then that overall winning percentage won’t look so good. When you take a current look at Gruden’s legacy, it comes across more like a “Chucky Legacy”… when he throws down that eye-brow frown coupled with an old man’s overbite. That’s what sticks out in my memory about Jon Gruden.
Of course, if Jon Gruden takes the Raiders to the playoffs this year and then they advance one game beyond that… then I’ll understand how he could be referenced in the same sentence as Steve Kerr.
Naw… not even then I take that back. Erase, erase.
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