K.C. at N.E. for Control of the AFC

K.C. at N.E. for Control of the AFC

by Laddie Morse

In the first game of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs traveled to Los Angeles to determine who would control the AFC West right out of the gate. The Chiefs answered that call with a convincing 38-to-28 victory over the Chargers. Then the Chiefs marched into Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers to see if they could hang with one of the perennial Conference contenders and came away with a 42-37 win. A week ago these Chiefs scaled the heights of Denver to decide who would take and hold the division lead, and if the Broncos had won that game the AFC West would be all tied up but, K.C. made a comeback and grabbed hold of the divisional steering wheel, 27-to-23. On Sunday the Chiefs ruffed up a ruffian in the Jacksonville Jaguars and struck their claim as the conference team-to-beat with a 30-to14 win and a 5-and-0 record.

Now, the Chiefs will go into New England’s Gillette Stadium to face the well rested Patriots, who’s last game was on Thursday evening of last week, allowing them 10 days to prepare for the Chiefs. The Pats are currently 3-and-2 and after losing two of their first three games have won two in a row by scoring 38 points in each of their last two games vs the Dolphins and the resurgent Colts. If N.E. loses this game against the Chiefs, then they will fall to 3-and-3 after six games and more importantly, giving the Chiefs a 3 game lead in the conference, and a huge lead in the all-important race for home field advantage.

So it would appear at first glance that:

• this game might mean more to the Patriots than the Chiefs
• the Patriots will be fresher than the Chiefs
• the Chiefs are coming off of a game with a physical toll
• the Chiefs are coming of off an emotionally taxing game
• this could be a revenge game for last year’s game one throttling by the Chiefs.

In last year’s meeting between these two teams in game one of the 2017 season, Andy Reid had plenty of extra time to prepare for that contest. As many of you know, when Reid has extra time to prepare, his record is stellar. That’s not the case here and N.E. head coach Bill Belichick surely understands that having the extra three days to prepare is to his advantage.

So, all arrows point to a Patriots victory — and a Chiefs loss — this coming weekend? Not so fast.

You may recall that RB Kareem Hunt had 246 total yards vs the Patriots last year in that game. That includes 148 yards rushing. If the Chiefs hope to keep Tom Brady sitting on the bench, a heavy dose of Hunt is in order. That mixed with two cups of Tyreek Hill, three cups of Travis Kelce, a cup and a half of Sammy Watkins and a pinch of Anthony Sherman… and the Chiefs should be able to control the clock and the scoreboard.

Another reason to believe that the Chiefs will come out on top in New England is the difference between the Pats #16 defense overall and the Jaguars #2 defense overall. ProFootballFocus says Patrick Mahomes is what they call, “Matchup Proof” when considering his Fantasy Value. While you may not follow Fantasy Football (I don’t either, so we’re in the same boat), there are stat revelations about some players who perform well in Fantasy Football, and that translates well to actual performance. Here’s what PFF says about Mahomes this week:

“Mahomes hosted the Jaguars, who had given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks through four weeks. He proceeded to drop 313 yards on them while playing with the lead the entire game. Mahomes added another 13 rushing yards and a score on the ground.

He didn’t pass for a score, and he threw his first two interceptions — a credit to Jacksonville’s D — but the fact that Mahomes remained fantasy-startable in this matchup means he’s a must-start every week. Mahomes is officially matchup-proof.”

Part of what’s being said here about Mahomes is that even on a down day, he still wins… and holds value. In this case, he didn’t play his best game vs the Jags, and still won. I expect PM2 to bounce back this week. He already has a record of doing enough to win. That’s a trait of highly competitive people. That’s Mahomes in spades.

I was listening to AM 610 Sports Radio here in Kansas City and the question was posed: is this team going 5-and-0 any different than… the 2017 team going 5-and-0? I’d say absolutely different. Having Patrick Mahomes at QB and Sammy Watkins playing WR #2 makes this offense — which has been described as an unstoppable force — one of the best in the NFL. Now, I’m a huge Alex Smith fan and hope his Washington team goes all the way to the Super Bowl (where they lose to the Chiefs). However, I am being convinced week in and week out, that Patrick Mahomes is a transcendent player who’s time has come. It may not happen this year but certainly — in my mind — this team led by Mahomes will go tho the AFC Conference championship game this year or next.

The Special Teams took a dip in their performance level in 2017 and this year’s STs crew is playing at an elite level. I’m not only impressed by this year’s STs unit but the overall depth of the Chiefs roster looks better than it did last year.

Another reason I’d choose this team over the 2017 Chiefs is the potential of this year’s defense. Sure, they are the worst team in the league when it comes to yards allowed (461.8 per game), however, the 2017 team included Derrick Johnson whose career was on the wane… and Tamba Hali who couldn’t play any more. Also, while I was a fan of CB Marcus Peter’s production, the cost to the team in terms of future contracts as well as clubhouse influence, was too high. Also, this year’s defense has been very good in the red zone and in 3rd down stops and with a young nucleus appear to have a bright future… as well as being a tight knit group.

Now, what does all that have to do with this coming weekend’s game against the Brady led Pats?

The youth and depth of this team should make a difference this weekend. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t seem to flinch at these big time challenges because he’s not only walked into Denver twice now and won on their turf but he’s also gone toe-to-to with Compost-Ben Roethlisberger and beat his team back… IN PITTSBURGH.

You can argue that this is a game when young-gun-QB-savant Patrick Mahomes needs to go establish himself as the best QB in the business today by winning in Gillette Stadium vs the so-called GOAT Tom Brady but… this game is not about that. It’s about the whole team showing up… like they did on Sunday in Arrowhead against the “best” defense in the universe. On a short week I might add. Now that we know they can do it, what’s the reason to doubt they can’t do it again. It’s a new day. A new year. A new team. I won’t be surprised if we get to witness a different result than the prognosticators are predicting: which is Chiefs +3.5 points. Hmmm… sounds like about the same odds as when the Chiefs went to Pittsburgh… and I liked how that turned out. A lot.

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