Laddie Morse
The Kansas City Chiefs have improved since the last time they faced the Bengals. A lot has been made of the fact that the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs three straight times. All in 2022. Let’s review.
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The first stat that jumps out, is that each of those losses were by 3 points. IOW, they were very close games. Consequently, the Chiefs should have to do very little to make up the difference. So, if the Chiefs win this time, it may well be by a close score.
Also, two out of three of those games were played in Cincinnati at Paycor Stadium. Playing in Arrowhead Stadium is an obvious advantage but, the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs there already so they are coming in with confidence. Plus, there’s a rumor going round that the Bengals players refer to Arrowhead Stadium as “Burrow-head Stadium.” One of the advantages of playing Home games in Arrowhead has been that it strikes fear into the opponent. Since the Bengals can get a good laugh out of “Burrow-head”… it may de-mystify it: what you can laugh at, is not so frightening.
In the first of these three losses, Ja’Marr Chase had two long TD catches of 72 and 69 yards. One big difference since that game is that the Chiefs now have Bryan Cook instead of Daniel Sorensen as the third Safety… and Justin Reid instead of Tyrann Mathieu as their starter. Some may see Reid as a downgrade, but he’s not only improved since the beginning of this season, but Mathieu’s play was going downhill last season. On top of those changes, Juan Thornhill has finally begun to play like a Pro Bowler in the past few games, registering an INT in week 18 vs the Raiders.
In the second contest, the AFC Championship game last year, the Chiefs blew an 18 point lead and CIN QB had a 41 yard TD pass to RB Samaje Perine and a 44 yarder to WR Tee Higgins. Then, last month, on December 4, the Chiefs allowed Ja’Marr Chase to catch a 40 yarder and the second longest catch was for 19 yards, to Tyler Boyd.
So, over the past three games, the two longest passes by Joe Burrow — in each game — looked like this:
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You can see the steady improvement. Now that Charvarius Ward is in San Francisco, the Chiefs need not worry about him going one-on-one with Ja’Marr Chase anymore. The other piece of data I like about this chart is that the most recent game shows that the longest passes Joe Burrow has thrown were not TDs. Do I expect them to take a shot downfield, maybe even two? Absolutely. I also expect the same out of Patrick Mahomes and crew as long as the OL can give him time to throw.
Nate Taylor of the Athletic, recently wrote a piece called: “Four lessons the Chiefs have learned in their 3 previous losses to Bengals” in which he shares these four:
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Probably the biggest impacts in the games the Chiefs have played vs the Bengals has come from Bengals’ DC Lou Anarumo. Here’s what Nate Taylor wrote about the AFC Championship game one year ago:
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“Mahomes was almost flawless in the first half of the AFC Championship Game last year, completing 18 passes on 21 attempts for 220 passing yards and three touchdowns, with zero turnovers. But after halftime, he had one of the worst 30-minute stretches of his career. One reason was that the Bengals used an additional defender in coverage (rather than as a pass rusher), which meant Mahomes had to be more careful throwing to certain spots. The additional time Mahomes spent before throwing the ball served to disrupt the Chiefs’ rhythm. With eight defenders back in coverage — which is how the Bengals defended 45 percent of the Chiefs’ second-half passing plays, according to Next Gen Stats — Mahomes completed just seven of his 13 attempts for 59 passing yards.”
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Tackling better, and covering their WRs better, will go a long way towards beating the Bengals this time around. You can now understand more clearly the “why” of the moves the Chiefs made this offseason when considering those two losses to the Bengals in the 2021 season/playoffs.
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Yes, the Chiefs are depending on a boat load of rookies to make their presence felt in the AFC Championship Game this year. However, they also added: DE Carlos Dunlap, RB Ronald Jones (who’s finally getting some reps), re-signed RB Jerick McKinnon, S Justin Reid, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR/KR Kadarius Toney, WR Justin Watson, re-signed Blake Bell (he played for the Cowboys in 2021) and advanced TE Jody Fortson. Sure, K.C. lost WR extraordinaire, Tyreek Hill, but they also brought in a lot of others to get better.
I can’t pass up an opportunity to mention the Chiefs superior coach staff. Without men like Dave Merritt, who serves as DB Coach, all the rookies they have brought in this year would not be viable come playoff time.
Last Summer during Training Camp the Chiefs worked under a mantra: get 1% better each day. And they have.
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One big question just hanging out there is… why didn’t the Chiefs beat the Bengals the last time they played them in December? First off, it’s only been in the past few weeks that the Chiefs coaches have been saying, “we now have no more rookie.” That means, those players they drafted should be veterans by now and we can expect more out of them. Yes, most college teams play 12 to 14 games at the most, when considering the Bowl games they go to. So, by playing their 18th game of the year as a pro, I can understand why coaches may be claiming these rookie, aren’t rookies any more.
Chiefs Offensive Line
So many of the improvements have taken place along the Chiefs offensive line. When? You ask. Well, since week 13. Chris Simms on Unbuttoned says it best (0:30):
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As Chris Simms was saying,
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“The Chiefs have gotten better as a football team. The Bengals have too, I don’t want to disregard that, but that’s where this is an awesome match-up. I don’t think these teams are quite the same as they were in [week] 13. I think they were both on an upward trajectory, like a real Super Bowl team should be, and continuing to get better, right? …. And then again, to the point you just made with the Bills too, I have a hard time thinking that the three (Bengals 3 DL set) is going to get there in 2 seconds, like it did against the Bills. This O-line [Chiefs front five] is very good. I’d be shocked if they don’t protect him [Mahomes] really well.”
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Chiefs Linebackers
Willie Gay has 40 more combo tackles this season (48 to 88) than he did last year. Nick Bolton has 49 more tackles than he did last season (131 to 180). Add those together and the Chiefs two main LBs have 89 more tackles this season than they did last season. Better? I’d say the Chiefs LBs are the most improved position on the team, bar none.While we know how good Nick Bolton has become in his second season (and he should have been selected to the Pro Bowl), Rotowire says this about Willie Gay:
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“… [with] a career-high 88 tackles (51 solo) in 2022, Gay compiled career-best outputs of 2.5 sacks and eight passes defended, adding a pick-six in Week 14 in Denver. He’s an explosive athlete who was viewed as raw coming out of the draft, but has seemingly come into his own three years into his career.”
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Willie Gay made that sensational play in the Denver game, which was one week after the loss to the Bengals.
Patrick Mahomes
Perhaps the biggest reason to favor the Chiefs in these playoffs is –> Patrick Mahomes. In October of last year — four months ago — when this 2022 season was just getting under way, many of us wondered if Patrick Mahomes was going to be able to excel without Tyreek Hill to throw the ball to. Mahomes has not only done well… he’s excelled to the point that he is the leading candidate for the league MVP. Jason Reid wrote a piece for Andscape called: “Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are evolving … a scary thing for the NFL” in which he says:
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“Mahomes has reinvented his game before our eyes, morphing — out of necessity — from a quick-strike superstar to one of the NFL’s truly patient performers. And, most importantly, the Chiefs have remained among the league’s elite teams while Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, developed a new formula.”
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Patrick Mahomes ankle injury may be the best thing that’s happened to him. Why, you ask? Because he’ll have to adapt — again — just like he did when Tyreek left… just like he did in Super Bowl LV when the Buccaneers nearly pounded him in to submission because he was working with back-up Offensive Linemen. Only. Plus, as Jason Reid points out, he’s morphing.
For his piece called: “The Evolution of Patrick Mahomes Into a Football Man in Full“, Rany Jazayerli said of Mahomes:
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“Even without Hill, Mahomes threw for a career-high 5,250 yards this season, the most in the NFL, and he also led the league with 41 touchdowns thrown (along with four more on the ground). He will almost certainly win his second MVP award, probably by a near-unanimous vote…. A year after the Chiefs went 12-5 and earned the no. 2 seed in the AFC, they went 14-3 [this season] and earned the no. 1 seed.”
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While Mahomes appears to have a “Gumby” body and can twist it and turn it anyway he likes without irreplaceable damage… his most incredible body part… is his head. He has the IQ mind of a genius football coach while simultaneously utilizing a nearly perfect photo-graphic memory helping him to never forget his own misstep… or a down and distance miscue… or an opposing players’ tendency… or the lessons of a loss. I’ll be somewhat surprised if the Chiefs don’t win by a larger margin than 3 on Sunday. If they do… it will be because of the body part sitting atop Mahomes shoulders. I seriously doubt this game will be decided by a body part located on his lower extremities.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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