A lot is riding on next month’s draft for the Kansas City Chiefs. With general manager John Dorsey making just one alteration to the starting line-up in free agency — giving his “nose” a face-lift — Chiefs fans will be “trusting in Dorsey” while Dorsey will be trusting in the draft, to get the team to the top of the AFC, to infinity… and beyond.
Both of the players the Chiefs selected first in the draft in the past two years — Marcus Peters and Chris Jones — have become outstanding performers and part of a growing nucleus of talented young players. For the Chiefs to take another step forward in 2017 they’ll need to duplicate that feat, but this year’s draft class may well be more important to the team if they wish to improve on the final results.
In a recent interview with kcchiefs.com B.J. Kissel, NFL analyst Bucky Brooks stated that he believes the Chiefs “Don’t have any weaknesses” heading into the draft. However, the team that lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers by two points at Arrowhead, a little over two months ago, looked outmanned defensively vs the Steelers rushing attack and outmatched physically on offense. If Kansas City had any kind of consistency, or an ability to force their will, against Pittsburgh offensively — at critical points in that game — and we’d be having a conversation about either the Conference championship or the Super Bowl right now.
Coming From Behind
While the K.C. games in 2016 were some of the most exciting games in recent memory, those games were compelling for one reason: the Chiefs needed to come from behind to win, and they did. That is: until their modus operandi — ways of operating — caught up with them. Then, like any good murder mystery, the clues left at the scene of the crime(s)… were enough to put them away for life… well, that may be overstating it a little. Moral of the story: if you constantly need to come from behind… there’s a reason for that: so don’t get behind in the first place.
Up until the 2016 season, the Chiefs had a reputation for not being able to come from behind. So, learning that the Chiefs could come-from-behind was a breakthrough of sorts. It’s a good thing they learned how to do that because, for some reason (which I’ll explore later), the Chiefs started 88% of their games very slowly. So, coming from behind was proving that, necessity IS the mother of invention.
The Chiefs scored 10 TD’s in the 1st quarter of all their games in 2016. However, half of those TDs came in just two games. Five touchdowns (5) in the 1st quarter of two games. That also means the Chiefs were only able to score a total of 35 points in the first quarter of the 14 other games they played in 2016. That’s an average of 2.5 first quarter TD points per game, over a 14 game span — 88% of their regular season games — which includes the PATs.
The Three Little Biggies
The Chiefs free agency attentions so far have been on the nose tackle and running back (C.J. Spiller, Bennie Logan). Since Dorsey hasn’t been able to sign a suitable ILB in free agency… and because it’s a position of need… that position should be a higher priority in the draft. So, it makes the top of my list of three “must haves.” I’ll discuss each of these issues in this piece.
1) Addressing the Run Defense– the run defense is job-one, including ILB and NT,
2) Addressing the Runningbacks– the rushing attack, by adding a change-of-pace running back who offers diverse skills to Spencer Ware. A #1 RB with speed would be the best fix.
3) Drafting Another Playmaker– an offensive playmaker, another dynamic, sure-fire offensive weapon.
The Evaluation Evolution
We know that John Dorsey and Andy Reid evaluate the team together once the season is done and then use their appraisal of needs — which grows out of that process — to set goals for the new season. Those are not static goals. I’m sure the two of them keep refocusing and revising those goals as the offseason progresses based on who is available, who gets released and who gets signed. Apparently, they came to the conclusion that… although they had one of the premier nose tackles in Dontari Poe, they couldn’t reconcile that with statistically owning the 26th ranked run defense. So, they locked up Bennie Logan and allowed Dontari Poe to go, for approximately the same amount of money that Poe received from the Falcons.
From Over the Cap:
Dontari Poe: Total Value: $8,000,000 (average of $8,000,000/year; $7,500,000 fully guaranteed) + a workout bonus of $500,000.
Bennie Logan: Total Value: $8,000,000 (average of $8,000,000/year; $7,680,000 fully guaranteed) + a workout bonus of $70,000.
Addressing the Run Defense
With Derrick Johnson expected to return from IR — and without knowing to what extent he’ll be able to contribute — the inside linebacking position is a must in this draft. Lyle Graverson published a piece this week called, “The Kansas City Chiefs Should Trade Up for a Quarterback” making a case for the Chiefs to draft a QB in the first round. While I won’t be upset if that’s the Chiefs pick next month –even if they trade up to do so — it’s what Graverson had to say about John Dorsey’s drafting pattern that interested me:
“John Dorsey has a history of spending first round picks on guys that would fill potential upcoming holes in the roster. He picked Eric Fisher when Branden Albert’s deal was about up. He picked Dee Ford when Justin Houston’s deal was about up. He picked Marcus Peters when Sean Smith’s contract was about up. He picked Chris Jones when Dontari Poe’s contract was about up (not the exact same position, but still defensive line). John Dorsey has proven to like insurance plans from health to forklift truck insurance when key players’ futures with the team are in question.”
Dorsey also has another pattern: he’s made sure the Chiefs have had an experienced backup QB each year he’s been here. If Dorsey plans to make no moves to sign an experienced backup QB this offseason, then you can expect the Chiefs to take a QB high in the draft with the idea that they’ll become the QBOTF.
What does that have to do with the Chiefs run defense? You may recall I suggested that Dorsey should trade up to get an inside linebacker not long ago and while I see QB as a need down the line, if the Chiefs don’t make more moves to stop the run this offseason, you can likely expect the same results that they got in 2016. You know the old Einstein quote, “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.” Since the total of changes made to the defensive starting rotation this offseason was to go from Poe to Logan, the results could be eerily similar… maybe even worse.
If either Reuben Foster, Haason Reddick or Zach Cunningham are available when the Chiefs finally pick in the first round, they must draft that player. I say, “finally pick” because the Chiefs have the power to move up the draft board this year like never before with ten picks in all — plus all 4 comp picks are now tradeable — and if they come close to one of these fine ILBs, they should go up and get them.
Addressing the Running Backs
The Chiefs will also need to add a running back in the upcoming draft, one who can provide the speed and punch in the arm that Jamaal Charles once gave the offense. One skill JC had that many fans don’t often associate with him is his ability to run hard between the tackles. Although John Dorsey signed the speedy C.J. Spiller the week before he released Jamaal Charles, Spiller may be viewed more as insurance for Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West while also allowing Knile Davis to sign with another team (the Steelers) because Spiller can also return kickoffs.
It was a popular opinion at the beginning of the offseason that the Chiefs needed a major upgrade at both Guard positions. However, now that John Dorsey has extended right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and no action has been taken yet to find a left guard… we may assume that JARD (John-Andy-Reid-Dorsey) are planning on having LG Parker Ehinger return for another shot there.
If a running back is taken early in this draft it may be an indication that JARD’s evaluation of the 2016 Chiefs included a low grade on the RB position… and not as much a poor rating of the OL. In a review of 2016 regular season game tape, I saw many holes that the O-line created but the backs weren’t able to get to those openings fast enough, as in year’s past with J.C.. Plus, the Chiefs #2 RB, Charcandrick West, took a big step backward: from 634 rushing yards in 2015 to 293 in 2016. Also, his yards-per-carry went down: from 4.0 ypc to 3.3.
RBs, Playmakers, and Red Zone Trends
The Chiefs have been on a negative trend in the red zone over the past four years: they’re attempting more and more field goals. That might indicate they’re not executing in the red zone and consequently unable to push it into the end zone. Kansas City has tried the following number of field goals in each season since Andy Reid arrived (it’s not important how many FGs were made because the fact that they even turned to the field goal kicker instead of going for a TD represents a failure — to a degree — on that end of the field):
Field Goal Attempts Per Season
2013 – 28 (R. Succop)
2014 – 30 (C. Santos)
2015 – 37 (C. Santos)
2016 – 35 (C. Santos)
The 72 field goals tried in 2015 and 2016 combined, are a 20% increase over the 58 field goals tried in 2013-2014. That is a significant jump in red zone failures. The main difference is that in 2013-2014 RB Jamaal Charles was a big — and effective — part of the offense. It’s one of the reasons the Chiefs must address the running back position in the draft, Of course, finding a special RB like Charles won’t be easy. Especially as late as the third round… which is the round in which JC was plucked nine years ago. Although, Dorsey will have two shots at it in the third this year.
Drafting Another Playmaker
Aside from a top notch RB, the Chiefs need an offensive playmaker who can be a dependable weapon in the red zone. Prospects like TE Evan Engram, TE David Njoku, and RB/WR Christian McCaffrey would all qualify. Since the Chiefs already have a flamethrower in the speedy Tyreek Hill, they might be best served by bringing in a player who can bludgeon the opposition like Samaje Perine — who I have hyped previously — or the 6-foot-1, 233 lb. James Conner from Pitt, the biggest RB in this draft. Here’s an ample sampling of his destructive habits.
One of the reasons I like James Conner is not just because he would probably be available in the mid-to-later rounds but, even though he doesn’t have breakaway speed at 4.65 — and who really needs it when you’re built like a train — he does have a lifetime 5.6 yards-per-carry average. Lance Zierlein of CBS Sports says of Conner,
“He [Conner] won the Disney Spirit Award and the ACC Brian Piccolo Award as rewards for beating cancer, but his best accomplishment was earning first-team all-conference recognition by carrying the ball 216 times for 1,092 yards and 16 touchdowns this season… his heart, work ethic and ability to keep the chains moving could make him a red-zone specialist with the ability to handle some third down duties as well. “
Some other playmakers could include wide receivers in this draft but the Chiefs are loaded with under-utilized talent there already so the likelihood that JARD will be going that route is lower. Drafting a prospect like WR John Ross, who set the combine record for the 40-yard dash at 4.22, could be fool’s gold for the Chiefs if they’re intending on using him to stretch the field when teams already know Alex Smith may not be able the get the ball that deep with accuracy. Then again, the Chiefs have never had anyone that fast — not even Tyreek Hill — so getting separation deep could give Alex Smith the target he’s been needing. Now that I think about it, I’m kind of loving the idea of Hill and Ross split wide on each side on go-routes. So, count me in if the Chiefs decide to go get a playmaker like John Ross.
When you consider that the transition from Poe-to-Logan is the only real change the Chiefs have made to their starting line-up so far this offseason, then it’s clear that they’ll be depending on the draft to fill in their other needs, especially if they’re counting on those early round choices to be starters in 2017… starters who they will probably need to help them climb to the top of the league.