David Bell Kansas City Chiefs

K.C. Chiefs: An Inside-Out Draft

David Bell February 24, 2019 No Comments

 

 

 

 

K.C. Chiefs: An Inside-Out Draft

 

by David Bell | February 24, 2019

 

 

This is my first examination of the draft process as it relates to free agency. In this case, I chose one free agent as the player to be mixed in as a top, hi-impact solution. My approach is determined by team need to resolve exposures on the roster or the need to replace existing players. Not all can be accomplished in any single draft or free agent signing period.

 

Chiefs and Their Dependencies

In any draft, there are dependencies that are oriented to the talent on the roster that you will, as Head Coach, field as a starter, those that you’ll use that way if you cannot replace them with a better player, and then players who add depth. Each season, the evaluation process goes on all season long, from opening practice to the last snap of the last game played.

 

A long term program has been established in any coaching and scouting staff: the General Manager has the task of managing player acquisitions and balancing the existing roster with future goals whether they are derived by filling those goals from the draft or free agency. Recently, Brett Veach gave a very nice summary of how he and the Chiefs scouting and coaching staff look at this process. It is a melding of activities and building finally, an action plan and carrying that out. It has detailed player acquisitions and player type profiles that may or may not be filled but from these lists of players, activity takes place to secure services.

 

Chiefs and Their Exposures

At any point in time, team capital is also part of the outlook and planning so it is naturally under the auspices of them GM. At the same time, players on the roster may wish to depart for more money or because of their own peculiar outlook on any organization, and at the same time, team rules, and organizational requirements related to, on and off the field behaviors is a factor. To illustrate this point, think about the departure of Marcus Peters and Kareem Hunt. These two player departures were crucially important in their applicability and affect. Both hurt in terms of players talents but the exposure and team persona would not have been adhered to had either player been retained.

 

Evaluating Positional Status of Players on Roster

Since the Chiefs Defense is my primary concern moving forward, I am going to focus on this first. However, you will see by my example Mock Draft, that I was trying to fulfill goals on offense as well. My general view of things is to make a trade back out of the first round, if possible. In this case, I was able to choose players from my acquisition list without doing so and a first round opportunity was not reasonable in what might happen so the example ended up being a no-trade, straight up draft.

 

I am using a premise for this example of acquiring a Safety in Free Agency, a hi-impact player as part of the Brett Veach plan for 2019. By solving one player acquisition and hence resolving a high exposure with that a single player signing. If I am Veach, I am then able to use the draft to resolve other area problems on both sides of the ball. I think there is a good possibility that such will occur and it might very well be Landon Collins. The process of adding a single player I cannot say of course, or how Eric Berry’s future fits the Veach outlook.

 

I have voiced on numerous occasions my support of Berry. I cannot, however, account for his status now, nor am I able to resolve in my own mind as to the status of retaining Justin Houston. My personal view is that it is time to move on from both players. I can’t see that $21.5M for the services of Houston fits well a solution for the direction of the organization in the near future and certainly not the longer range plans. Ditto Eric Berry who has still not had surgery and we are almost into March already.

 

Focus on the Chiefs Example Draft

Presumptions: the Chiefs needs quality player additions in the following areas: order is not related to priority.

 

  1. Safety – I am resolving this with a free agent signing and also a draftee — Depth is needed. Murray should be gone but Armani Watts will prove out as a starter out of the gate. Jordan Lucas returns also so I am adding only one draftee but making sure by signing Free Agent “xyz” — and Landon Collins is my choice — there are others out there (like Earl Thomas or Tyrann Mathieu, etc). Someone should be signed who has experience and provides solid depth, at worst, although I want the high-impact type player most of all — such as Collins.
  2. Cornerback – the Chiefs have a single top Cornerback in Kendall Fuller who is best in coverage for the Slot Cb position. Next is Steven Nelson who ranked 8th in the NFL for coverage according to PFF. His retention is important to the direction of the team. You may disagree with this but it is obvious to me that there is much emoting going on without consideration of what was occurring (or not occurring if you will), with Sutton’s defense. Nelson was targeted at a very high numbers level by opposing teams. However, due to weakness in not having a shutdown corner, and a lack of depth (despite Charvarius Ward making great strides to earn a starting role), I think Brett Veach will add two Corners in the draft.
  3. Defensive Tackle and Defensive End – It is my view that Justin Houston will depart as will Allen Bailey. Adding a tackle or 4-3 Defensive end should be on Brett Veach’s to-do list. How he manages this remains to be seen but the Chiefs need to address this in the draft and/or perhaps free agency. I just can’t see retaining Bailey and I think Houston’s time in KC is done. Some slot Dee Ford here, some put him at OLB.
  4. Linebacker – The Chiefs have players here but the crew was a weakness in 2019 — a lot of the problem was how Sutton deployed them. With a switch to the 4-3 though, may leave Reggie Ragland on the outside looking in, is far off base, especially when considering the number of times that he was targeted compared to all other players. Without the top Safety backing up the secondary in front, the task of covering receivers was made quite a lot more difficult. At the same time, the run game defense was lacking as was coverage via the linebacking crew. I want my target and you will see how I address this need below.
  5. Tight End – I view adding a potent TE being a luxury but adding one who can be a #2 and replace Demetrius Harris should be part of the Veach plan. In this example, you will appreciate the addition.
  6. Running Back – Less a crucial need but the position needs players signed who can block, run effectively between the tackles and catch the football.
  7. Offensive line – I would like to add a high pick offensive lineman each season.

 

 

Chiefs Reconstruction: a First-Pick First Effort

The result shows how First-Pick.com viewed the player ranking. I am ignoring the player ranking and using an inside-out import in the draft. For 2019, we are in a linebacker weak draft — but, I like Mack Wilson and he was available and I took him because I want that strength added to my corp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

At corner, I chose a man — Trayvon Mullen — with length and defensive skill. Both these players rank in the positional top five for many analysts so adding one or the other is a good bet. The same is true for choosing Jaquan Johnson at safety. Later, I add Jamel Dean to my CB depth (again, a player who is often ranked in the top 5 but is good for achieving my goal of adding depth). Here’s a highlight video on Trayvon Mullen:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I passed on adding TJ Hockenson in round 2 for TE and added Jace Sternberger in round 3 and he is a quality choice.  The rest of the draft could go anyway but a couple of notes: Greg Gaines is a big man for DT and though he needs lessons in aggressiveness, he could fit as part of a package in stopping the run or he is big enough to occupy double teams if he gets a bit mean. Tony Pollard is a WR/RB and thus has double potential. I drafted him for WR but he could be swapped the other way. That adds value for late in the draft. Take a look at a Jace Sternberger catch and run… run… run (ignore the first video of Parris Campbell). Does Sternberger remind of of anyone we know?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, I did not worry with pundits or rankings by various analysts. I went to solve inside problems with outside solutions by choosing players that fit via their skill sets.

 

  • Round 1 Pick 29: Mack Wilson ILB, Alabama (B)
  • Round 2 Pick 29: Trayvon Mullen  CB, Clemson (A)
  • Round 2 Pick 31: Jaquan Johnson  SS, Miami (FL) (B+)
  • Round 3 Pick 28: Jace Sternberger  TE, Texas A&M (A+)
  • Round 5 Pick 29: Jamel Dean  CB, Auburn (A+)
  • Round 6 Pick 28: Greg Gaines  DT, Washington (A+)
  • Round 7 Pick 2:   Tony Pollard  WR/RB, Memphis (A+)

 

 

Editor’s Note: the Chiefs have been awarded a 6th round compensatory pick but First-Pick.com hasn’t added in that feature yet.

 

 

 So, here’s how the Chiefs roster could look in 2019:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Bell – ArrowheadOne

 

 

 

 

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