Josh Kingsley

Another week, another Chris Jones delay. I wrote last week about my current status in the sports grieving process –> Acceptance. We should see Jones this season. His recent Twitter (or X… or whatever you want to call it) “commentary” says he may hold out until week eight. Nick Wright took at glass half full approach on First Things First yesterday expressing joy in Jones’ confirmation he plans to play. Nick went on to call for Jones to join a 7-0 team. That seems… aggressively ambitious. It doesn’t seem impossible, but ambitious for sure. I fall firmly in the Veach backing camp with belief it works itself out. Veach has a hard cap, believes Jones (and his backed, and most likely prodded, input from agents and NFLPA) ask is too rich for future cap hits, and appears set to next-man-up the thing.

I didn’t like it with Hill, don’t like it now, but have no non-emotional reason to second guess. My position puts me in what I perceive as the growing minority which… I expect this to be majority soon, and believe many simply sit in earlier grief stages. Most social commentary leads me to believe anger is the leading horse in this race. There is plenty of anger to go around. A vocal group believes Veach built his D around Jones, and needs to simply cave. Equal furor rains on Jones for being greedy. Some direct anger at Hunt for being cheap.

It’s a hard cap and a math exercise. Decisions today = consequences tomorrow. No doubts. This is simple addition, not calculus. Veach sees less flexibility by paying the $30M desired. He can pay, but chooses not to. Jones is correct to want it, and to be willing to sacrifice for it. Holing out costs him $10M+ in fines and lost salary. Why would he do that? I believe that answer lies in 0:25 – 3:00 of this awesome scene from the end of Moneyball.

Jones has every right to want the statement the money makes, and those around him have every right to validate his feelings.

Preseason Game Two

I have three major conclusions from this game. They come from what I expect to get from preseason games. My main goal is lack of injuries. Check, but not a conclusion. After that it’s what the first team shows, what the depth shows, and an overall vibe. Let’s get to it.

First Team Performance

Let’s be clean on the offense side of the ball: I look at Patrick and his pass catcher chemistry. Well, that looked awesome in AZ. Mahomes looks dialed. The first series lacked anything resembling polish, and ultimately died with Watson’s OPI. Second, series more of the unfortunate same. Third series provided the real snapshot. The 10-play drive featured some key plays/notes:

Dedication to getting the ball in Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s hands
CEH doing relatively little with the opportunity
Skyy Moore as the 3rd down, must have a catch target
The 21 yard out to MVS was poetry
Mahomes rolling right to Watson dragging across the end zone for the TD

The question I must answer: were the first two series really as throw-away as I implied? I say yes. First, both drives stalled because of major penalty hits. Concerning, sure, but nothing to write home about. The bigger concern was CEH’s lack of running effectiveness. That fixes itself with fewer called, or more dynamic (pronounced not preseason) play calling.

We also got the Mahomes jumping out of bounds and almost completing a pass play (see above).

I suspect Mahomes received a “score a TD and sit” directive before the third series, which made it count. The O worked the field, chewed the clock and wrapped the quarter. Perfect execution.

First Team D

The starting D made the above possible. Arizona moved the ball 62 yards on their first four drives. Kyler Murray didn’t play, their weapons are unrecognizable, and the Cardinals appear lost. Still, 62 yards in four drives is impressive. I liked what I saw from the D.

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Depth Perception

The CHIEFS offensive depth looked comically good against the Cardinals. Buechele made another solid run at QB with a 10/10 passing performance. His connection with Rice is budding, obvious, and quite welcome. Gabbert tossed two TDs, went 7/8, and worked the passer rating formula to a perfect 158.3. Rice hauled in 8 of 9 for 96 yards. I think we have something with him.

The real revelation was Ihmir Smith-Marsette. He caught all four targets for 92 yards and a TD. Roster cuts are on the horizon and ISM asked some tough questions. The toughest question: does he (can he) make the final 53. Dwayne and I talked through this very question on the podcast. Start around the 5 minute mark for the discussion, 6 minutes for the math exercise.

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Fun with Arithmetic

The final roster most certainly includes 17 total players for QB, RB, WR, TE. How did the 2022 roster shake out? Breakdown:

QB: Mahomes, Henne, Buechele
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones II, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco
FB: Michael Burton
WR: JuJu, MVS, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson
TE: Kelce, Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, Blake Bell

The CHIEFS will keep the same total, but the mix will certainly change. Here are the assumptions, facts and questions:

Assumption: no FB.
Fact: Fortson is on the IR.
Question: do the CHIEFS trade a QB?
Assumption: CHIEFS keep three QBs.
Assumption: CHIEFS do NOT keep four TE
Question: how many RBs?
Assumption: 17 players for these positions as before.

I have a few scenarios to workshop. All scenarios hinge on the 17 player group.

Scenario One: Heavy on WR

The CHIEFS can keep eight WR with a few moves. First, commit to no FB. Second, work with three TE like most seasons. Third, drop a spot at QB or RB. The CHIEFS most likely make the first two proposed moves. That makes sever WR a slam dunk with them keeping: MVS, Toney, Skyy, Watson, Rice, James, Ross. Smith-Marsette is the potential eighth. He may be pegged for the practice squad. I do not see him staying there expecting some team signs him as a FA. Look at the Cardinals WR box score from the game. That’s a potential spot with zero research.

Assuming he stays one of two positions needs to give a spot. The two easiest answers: cut CEH or trade Gabbert. Clyde profiles one way: sunk cost. There isn’t a trade partner, so it’s keep or cut time. Either makes sense. Do I want a contract year from Clyde or lock down of ISM? I’m open, but lean ISM…slightly. Fantasy football is simply that, fantasy. However, it’s stats based and an actual indicator. Some savvy players started the no RB trend years ago as the position moved from lead back to committees. The philosophy is get Chub, McCaffrey, Henry or Taylor, or simply stock up WR and draft scraps at RB in the late rounds. You can win a league that way given the passing game production. Is the NFL really that far from that philosophy? Now, can you picture Reid with a roster of eight WR? I certainly can.

The Gabbert trade sounds unlikely, but so does a league with Mac Jones, Sam Howell and CJ Stroud starting games. Keep an eye on this.

Scenario Two: Heavy, but Measured

Take scenario one, stick with the TE and FB assumptions, leave the three QB, but reassess the RB room. Current RB projections include Pacheco, McKinnon and CEH making the roster with Perine and Prince fighting for the fourth spot. This opens cut Clyde keep both, and also keep the vets cutting Perine and Prince options. I think they keep four, the three vets and one young guy. We are still looking to keep ISM in this scenario. The measured option includes Toney starting the season on the IR. Smith-Marsette makes the roster as the WR7, and the roster spots sort when Toney returns.

Scenario Three: Traditional Approach

The final scenario makes the difficult decisions. A real option is dropping the FB, but keeping a fifth RB. That likely means three TE and six WR. It also means ISM gone and one of Watson, Ross and James joins him.

I’m rolling with scenario two as a prediction.

Final Preseason Game

My checklist for the finale includes a need and a want. I need a clean, injury-free game. My want is a first team D clean sheet. Keep the Deshaun offense off the board, and I cry success with a capital S.

Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne and Arrowhead Kingdom