Josh Kingsley
I had an interesting conversation recently. The more time I spend as a fanalyst the more personal contacts initiate conversations about sports topics. I love it. Being a go-to for sports debates and discussions suits me quite well. Anyway, the convo. My buddy, Adam P. and I connected about another topic and he asked my thoughts on the Trey Lance trade. He specifically asked what I think it means. I told him my brain immediately went to the “is there a Dak replacement plan?” space, but quickly shifted to believed reality. My take on believed reality: Lance is most likely a career backup, but there is a chance for starting upside. The real question: would you pick a long-term backup QB in the 4th round with a known NFL skill set? My answer is an emphatic yes. Lance is a known entity.
He can develop a slate of RPO vanilla offensive plays to spell a starter or handle a couple games for an injury. We know this is possible. The Cowboys don’t have to look at that position for years. Good trade for them. Adam then made a comment of seeing the bust coming due to the ND State pedigree while referencing Carson Wentz as another example. I don’t find that assessment fair. Lance was a consensus first round talent in all pre-draft discussion. Boom or bust was a consistent projection, but it came with acknowledgement his price being first round. My position is Lance is a result of the 5+ year quest to find the next Mahomes. That’s where the league is at the moment.
Where is the Next Mahomes?
That’s the NFL’s question. The current approach has a level of turning over every stone to find the small and non-traditional school’s gem. Jordan Love, Trey Lance, Malik Willis… immediately jump as that profile. So far, so bad. I use this reference to point something out: Texas Tech fit that mold prior to Mahomes, and is probably back there again. Who are the most notable Red Raider NFL players? I refrained from research in favor of memory. Michael Crabtree and Graham Harrell. A decent Raider/9er and a Packers third stringer. That’s it. Harrell backing up Rodgers is the best Texas Tech QB.
Let me know if I’m missing something/someone in the comments.
Caleb Williams is the next experiment. If he becomes the “next Mahomes” as speculated we get another 5+ years of that search. He bombs, and it may be the nail in that coffin. We as CHIEFS fans know a fact: there is only one Patrick Mahomes, so other teams best quit looking and build their own QB program. That said, I hope they all chase it until they pass out. Especially the Broncos and Raiders.
The final thought I gave Adam ran me into a what if scenario based on another fact: life builds from a series of dumb luck in a time and place paradigm.
Perfect Conditions
The Mahomes Reid connection is perfection. Many smarter than I have illustrated this. Mahomes is Mahomes because Reid let’s him be himself. Let me add some factors: Mahomes grew up a sports pro, he played at a small school, transfers were less of a thing, and he entered the draft noted, not infamous. Patrick Mahomes had a pro mentality in high school. His dad gave him eons of professional perspective and he absorbed it. A lesser mind disrupts the entire thing. He enrolled and stayed at Tech. The professionalism and perspective added to the loyalty, but picture him today. How many schools pine for his transfer signature? A move to an Alabama, Georgia, USC, Texas, etc. could be procedural in today’s landscape. Maybe Patrick picks the most pro-ready system to build his value. All smart business.
Patrick is a pioneer. The league did not have a school yard run and gun comparison, which is why he scared GMs and coaches. Mahomes actually received the scrutiny and suspicion Lance deserved. Patrick’s existence allows teams to dream. It took Andy Reid, Brett Veach and many others seeing something most missed. These conditions cannot recreate, so we have version one of one. The what if game comes in many layers, all of which could have changed the NFL landscape.
Alternate Reality Path
Let’s put Mahomes in the current climate. He comes off a high stat season at Tech and Nick Saban notices. Nick spends his spring making trips to Lubbock, Whitehouse and other places in Texas. He recruits well and is a better story-teller. It’s a nice story: move to Tuscaloosa, win a title, play in a pro style, go high in the draft, and, oh yeah, your girlfriend has a spot on the soccer team. How many of Pat, Randi, Patrick and Brittany take these conversations seriously? All of them.
Let’s say Patrick makes the smart money move. Tons of NIL money waits in the SEC. The other thing waiting in the SEC in Tuscaloosa is a handpicked team of offensive experts Saban assigns to fixing Patrick’s mechanics. It’s their top priority and Mahomes is coachable. Maybe he wins a title, get’s picked in the top ten, and ends up on a rebuilding QB needy team. His mechanics improved, so he looks safer. Maybe the Bears like it this time and take him only to work on his mechanics more. Fallout one in this scenario: no Magic Mahomes.
The other fallout is the ripple effect. If Mahomes leaves Tech does Kingsbury even sniff the NFL? Doubtful. Kyler Murray never finds his way to Arizona in this scenario. Since Patrick isn’t a thing that leaves the CHIEFS looking for a successor to Smith. That’s the margin in this crazy world. I’m good living in the reality where Reid is the only ninja master able to handle the perfect weapon. The present rocks!!
Roster Time
The CHIEFS have a 53 man roster, which means football is for real, for real finally here! Deep breath. Things got weird this offseason. The Chris Jones saga is the Chris Jones saga. My thoughts and stance are clear. We have to be seeing the end. Things have degraded to the point where Jones starts the season on the reserve list. Arrowhead Pride did a great job explaining the implications: the CHIEFS gain $1.08M in cap space for each missed game. Something to monitor.
For now the CHIEFS roll into the opening game with Derrick Nnadi, Turk Wharton, Keondre Coburn, Matt Dickerson and Neil Farrell at DT. Who drops if/when Jones returns? I expect it’s performance based on the regular season games. I expect a Jones trade at this point. Veach needs to get him out and a couple first round picks back.
Enough already.
A small, irrational dreamer part of me hopes we are all in the dark. Picture a world where Jones activates next Monday, with new extension in hand. The missing camp fines can’t waive, so the CHIEFS donate it to a foundation in Chris’ name. Jones didn’t want to camp this season and the team agreed. The CHIEFS and Jones didn’t owe anyone anything this offseason and let everyone make up their own stories. Cruel joke? A bit. Likely? Um, no. Possible in some crazy world? Sure… look, it’s all we have left.
Here are the most unexpected or otherwise notable roster moves.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
Anyone following my podcast (I’ll go ahead and share it here again):
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Followers know I liked everything ISM provided in preseason. Anyone following me on YouTube saw this (1:16):
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I went on the record calling for the CHIEFS to turn the NFL upside down, embrace the pass, and keep eight WR. The podcast episode no more than published and the CHIEFS put that to bed by trading ISM to the Panthers. Kansas City clearly liked what they saw out of ISM, but not enough to displace another WR. Social circles rallied hard for Justyn Ross and ISM to make the roster over Justin Watson. The CHIEFS disagreed. That isn’t a knock on ISM. The CHIEFS could have easily cut ISM. However, they saw the value and shipped it out of the AFC. Best of luck, Ihmir.
New Math
Another podcast topic was roster allocation. The CHIEFS entered last season with 17 QB+RB+FB+WR+TE. I expected the same and justified the either WR by dropping the FB and reducing two of the QB, RB, TE by a player. The FB spot is vacant and probably dead. Much to my surprise the CHIEFS did reduce the QB AND RB AND TE spots a player each. To my greater surprise they allocated two of those spots out of the positions listed above entirely. They did keep seven WRs. I still believe my pass trend up premise correct regardless of my outlandish eight WR take failing immediately.
Tight RB Room
The CHIEFS went from five to three RB in a season. McKinnon is essentially a WR, and CEH was drafted to be the same. Most, self included, expected Prince or Perine to make the roster as the fourth RB. The same social circles calling for Justin Watson’s cutting wanted the same fate for CEH. In a Clyde cut scenario both Prince and Perine make the roster. This was never happening. CEH’s dead cap hit is $2.57M if cut. No one is trading for him so that’s the number. He was always a lock to make the 53. Prince and Perine both hit the practice squad. One or both likely see NFL snaps this season.
QB Down
Aside from ISM the toasts of training camp and preseason played QB. Shane Buechele showed enough to consider making him QB2… until preseason game three. Gabbert is quality, possibly enough to wrangle a starting job. He is either Henne 2.0 and content or starting somewhere next season, and there is no middle ground.
Season Record Prediction
I see the CHIEFS going 14-3 with losses to the Broncos, Eagles and Chargers. That puts them in the one seed well positioned to host a SIXTH (6th) straight AFC Championship game and fight for another Lombardi.
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Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne and Arrowhead Kingdom
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