Josh Kingsley

Week One of the NFL season is in the books. I formally welcome the casual fans and other fanatics to this fully football engaged space. We fanalysts worked hard to keep your seats warm during the offseason.

(takes a quick, deep breath of the fresh… football laden air)

Aight – let’s get back at it.

NFL Week One is final and we potentially learned some things. Potentially. Cowboy, 49ers and Packers fans hope we saw the clear picture. Bengals, Giants, Eagles and CHIEFS (hey! us) fans hope we watched preseason week four (remember that was a thing?). Bills fans surely think something and Jets fans are sad. About the Jets.

The Cursed Matchup

Aaron Rodgers dominated much of the NFL offseason with his Favre 2.0, will he/won’t he… stay/go, waffling in the dark then… ultimately moving to the New York City (New Jersey) Jets. Rodgers joined an elite defense as the final piece of a Super Bowl ready roster. Aaron built a reputation of a prickly personality and me-first behavior. As a Wisconsin resident I can assure you most NFL fans saw the tip of that opinion iceberg.

Rodgers his NYC (NJ) move came with massive fanfare and expectation, and he ran with it like an all-timer. In a matter of months Rodgers kicked the majority of his reputation by showing up to offseason activities, bonding with his WR corps, and restructuring his deal to accommodate adding Dalvin Cook. He became the person that found the qualities the ex-spouse desired the second the divorce papers ink dried.

I believe we had a great situation for all: Jets fans had hope, Packers fans had resolution, NFL fans had a story, and the world FINALLY had the elusive Mahomes-Rodgers matchup on the schedule… in prime time. You know the old saying, “fifth time’s the charm?” For real, this was try # FIVE:

October 27, 2019: Mahomes missed due to knee injury that took QB sneaks off the table seemingly forever
November 11, 2021: Rodgers missed due to toe injury to put Jordan Love in the spotlight

The other two are admittedly, shoulda, coulda, woulda:

2019 NFC title game: Packers 20-37 49ers
2020 NFC title game: Bucs 31-26 Packers (go for it on 4th and 1)

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Not Meant to Be

We finally had it on the schedule. Week four, Sunday Night Football. Seems that everyone watched week one MNF.

Fourth play, Jets Swiss cheese (this may be an insult to actual Swiss cheese) line confirms the worst fears, provides zero protection, Rodgers takes a hit and tears his left Achilles.

Some cosmic force clearly does not want Mahomes and Rodgers to play. It’s a true pity.

The situation is not officially, mathematically eliminated, but things look bleak. AFC West and AFC East match this season, hence week four. There are only two ways to set up a sixth try: playoffs and standings matchup next season. I still expect the CHIEFS to win the West, but do not see a world where the Jets win the East. That leaves a playoff game next season as our last chance. Keep in mind this predicated on Rodgers opting to rehab and return, over retiring, which is not a given. I’m going 40 on the ground for this matchup.

My last comment on this topic –> Aaron Rodgers, thanks for all the memories. I hope to see you for a swan song in 2024, but understand if you hang it up to host Jeopardy.

Chris Jones Resolution

This CJ Saga finally ended…for now. I’m happy to have this black cloud gone, and elated it means Stone Cold is back on the field. It’s reflection time. Check out my latest podcast episode for my full thoughts (topic starts at 10:35):

Last week provided many things in the CJ Saga. There was drama as Chris returned to KC, spoke to the media and sat in a booth for the season opener. That same series of events created a side show of sorts. It also spawned massive amounts of anger from CHIEFS fans while drawing laughs and finger pointing from others. I got something else: clarity and understanding. Let start with my positives and negatives of the new 2023 deal:

Positive: Jones back on the field, the D is simply better with him
Positive: franchise tag on the table next offseason (early rumors suggested the deal included written commitment to not use it)
Positive: long-term deal back on the table…maybe, more on that
Negative: Jones sullied his name, and has a long climb back to CHIEFS fans’ good graces
Negative: opportunity cost missing preseason and week one
Negative: manufactured distraction fallout

It’s all over now as Jones signed the incentive laden deal that tops out at $25.2M. I mentioned personal clarity. This adds to my desire for resolution over results. I wanted Jones on the field with a long-term deal, but I needed resolution and a clear answer. That exists mainly because the picture makes sense.

Something Clicked

I watched the video of Chris Jones in front of the Ronald McDonald House, and Jones gave me everything I needed in one short clip. This was a scheduled charity event, not a publicity stunt. Deal in hand football would have been one simple question: how do you feel about the upcoming Super Bowl defense? Since there was no deal… the media asked why? Chris Jones and his team knew that question was coming, surely prepped for it, and Jones fumbled it worse than Josh Allen taking a MNF snap in Jersey. It all aligned for me: Jones simply does not have the PR chops to handle a non-football discussion. Like, at all. Everyone knew the contract question was coming. Jones had practice sessions with his agents and others about how to answer that question. I imagine it looked like the late scene in Bull Durham where Crash coached up Nuke.

I don’t know exactly what the team told Jones to say, but I’m certain it wasn’t the opinions as behinds analogy. Jones had one job: keep it high level, deflect, and say his agents and Veach were on it. He was not savvy enough to handle that simple task. Furthermore, he was a liability on camera. This reiterated my understanding, a belief that Jones has one money-making opportunity, and it’s on the field. Mahomes and Kelce have on camera careers waiting for them, Jones doesn’t, and it’s stuff like this. He has to maximize his earning now.

Contract Talk

I respectfully disagree with a major point I see in Arrowhead One comments and social media boards. That point is Jones having a contract which he should simply honor. I don’t believe honor and sports contracts, especially football, are really a thing. NFL contracts, with a few exceptions, carry only partial guarantees. A website primarily dedicated to illustrating how teams can back out on contracts early exists in overthecap.com. Typical NFL contracts have early outs… for the team. This is an honor among thieves situation holding players to a good word that teams don’t have. For the record I am fine with this dynamic. I just want clear, consistent rules of engagement, and believe we have them. By the way, clear does not have to mean fair or rational.

The other thing about pro sports contracts is the final year piece. A contract final year is vote of no confidence, a lack of team commitment, or in rare situations, an actual final year before retirement. NBA teams call these expiring deals, and teams horde them to tank and create space for high dollar free agents. Non-MLS soccer teams take them as reality that transfer value leaves after the summer window (my illustrated Harry Kane situation a few weeks ago).

For NFL players it’s extreme risk as an injury takes a boatload of money away.

I believe in honor, accountability and good word, and strive to live it. However, I simply don’t think that’s what we are doing in sports contracts.

This isn’t a universal view, so I agree to respectfully disagree with anyone who sees it differently.

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All the Players

The Jones contract saga gave us a list of characters. Chris Jones was the main protagonist. He was definitely not the villain, but may have been victimized. The NFLPA got in Jones corner, and ear, early, often, and were hard pushing for max money. Chris Jones resetting the DT market is good for all DT and defensive players alike. The NFLPA were simply lobbyists. I’m cool with anyone calling them or any other lobbyists villains, but I saw a group just doing their jobs.

The Katz Brother, Jones’ agents, were and remain, the villains and the clowns. Brett Veach played the cool, steady hand while the CHIEFS office, coaches and players played supporting roles as good teammates.

My belief is Chris Jones was truthful in his presser: he simply wanted a raise. Every working person has been there and will be again. The final year of a pro sports contract, especially the NFL, is where to ask your team for a raise. It’s the equivalent of asking after a review. Moving in free agency is changing companies.

This situation was rough, but avoided truly becoming ugly. Ugly, would have been the theoretical eight week holdout. That theoretical move took $1.08M per game-check and lowered Jones franchise tag number to roughly $12M in 2024. The Katz Bros. and Jones could have gone this route. In that now fictitious scenario Veach could have franchised Jones, refused to trade, forced a holdout and killed Jones’ career. My belief: Jones caught this on some level, threw up his hands, and made his agents end it.

A Glimmer of Hope

I believe an extension is back on the table during the next offseason. The caveat: it must happen with a recast of certain characters. Jones’ agents, the Katz brothers, gotta go. There is no reason to expect a different story next offseason with the same characters as this offseason. The only opportunity to change is the agent representation. I call a new deal a glimmer. The glimmer becomes a hope the day Jones fires the Katz Brothers and hires new agents. That is the one thing I am looking at as the indication a long-term deal can still happen.

Week One Recap

Full and transparent disclosure: I only watched the second half of this game. Misty got us tickets to Iliza Schlesinger comedy event months ago and the show was also last Thursday. I’m a huge fan of Iliza, who spent a year at KU, BTW, and I had no issue missing the first half of the game. My friend, Adam (Boys of Summer), lives right around the block from the theater and he and his lady joined us for the show. We caught the second half at his place.

I got into game mode watching a 14-7 CHIEFS halftime lead. That quickly turned into viewing a second half performance so bad it quickly passed anger and frustration for disbelief and ultimately indifference. I was over the game before the final whistle blew. We did not watch a CHIEFS game and we learned next to nothing.

Positives from Game

The biggest positive: football is back! We all can get back to our regularly scheduled Sunday routines. My second major positive relates back to the comment at the end of the last section. This game had the feel and polish of preseason week four and the annual clunker. How is this a positive? Well, the offense sucked out loud, but the CHIEFS only lost by one point… to a good Lions team with a great offense. Finally, the defense showed up. This game could have been a blowout, but the D kept us in it. Major props to them. The defense actually did enough to secure a Chiefs win, but Kadarius Toney threw a pick-6 to flip the script.

Negatives from Game

Really, where to start? It has to start with Toney… he was miserably bad. That said, it was a game. Toney played as big a part in the Super Bowl LVII win as about any player on the roster. I hate blaming things on one player, play, etc., but kind of hard to avoid here. If Toney either holds the pick-6 or catches the ball in the flat with a wide open field the result is probably different.

I give TONEY grace on this one. We all have bad days at work. This predicates on him correcting it game IN two, and I believe he will.

Play calling and personnel was lacking for sure. A stronger push for a rushing attack, ability to conventionally convert 3rd and short, Justyn Ross getting more targets, MVS getting more second half targets, etc., etc., etc. This all comes down to bad planning, focus and execution. As mentioned above we watched either preseason four or the annual clunker.

Here are the Mahomes Era clunkers:

2018: five games the D gave up 30+
2019: weeks five (CHIEFS 13-19 Colts) and six (CHIEFS 24-31 Texans) both at home
2020: week five (CHIEFS 32-40 Raiders) at home (and Super Bowl LV)
2021: week seven (CHIEFS 3-27 Titans) in Nashville
2022: week three (CHIEFS 17-20) in Indy

These games happen. My biggest negative is the when and the back foot starting. Tons of negatives, which makes this a burn the tape game in my book.

All the above pales in comparison to the real negative: endless commentary. The national media loved this one as a fresh opportunity to call for the end of the CHIEFS era. Most can’t wait in the same way finance people all over cannot wait to call the next recession. Some get-off on seeing pain.

The Implication and History

Losses always suck. Clunkers to non-superior teams extra suck. Doing it on banner night to start the season takes the suck cake. There is a narrative the CHIEFS seem destined for a playoff miss. My crystal ball’s busted along with my stock in thoughts and feelings like that, so I turned to data. I looked at the week one results for the the reigning champ from 2011 to present. Over the previous 12 games the reigning champs tout a record of 8-4. Four reigning champs failed to reach the postseason the following year. Three teams are part of both lists: the 2012 Giants, the 2013 Ravens and the 2022 Rams.

All are fairly easy to explain. That 2011 Giants team snuck into the playoffs, got white hot, knocked off the 15-1 Packers in Lambeau and Achilles heel-ed Tom Brady in the “my husband can’t throw and catch the ball” game. The 2012 edition simply fell back to earth. In 2012 the Ravens beat the unstoppable Harbaugh/Kapernick show in NOLA, and Ray Lewis promptly retired on top. The 2013 season was a planned transition. The newly re-minted LA Rams went all in in 2022, won a title, and got the bill in 2023. They may pay it off this season. The final playoff missing team of the four is the 2016 Denver Broncos. That Bronco team did win week one, but was in clear transition. Peyton Manning retired and they’ve been looking for a QB with a pulse ever since.

The Statistical Anomaly

The data suggests the concern of missing the playoffs holds merit. It’s all explainable, but the trend does exist. I’ve covered all four defending champs that missed the playoffs, and I’ve covered three of the four week one losses. Who accounts for the final week one loss? Who else, the Patriots. The team who dealt them the week one loss? Well, that would be our own Kansas City CHIEFS by a score of 42-27. That CHIEFS team beat the brakes off New England in Foxboro in route to a 5-0 start. They followed that by losing six of the next seven, but that’s neither here nor there.

The New England Patriots won a Super Bowl LI, lost to a good and hungry team week one of 2017, “recovered” to a 12-4 record, earned the one seed, annihilated the Titans, beat the Jags in the AFC Championship game, and lost the Super Bowl in a thriller to the Eagles. Sounds like a good season.

We as CHIEFS fans and fanalysts have a question: does this 2023 team and situation remind you more of the 2017 Patriots or one of the other three teams that lost game one? I see more of the Patriots, but some accuse me of wearing rose colored glasses.

Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne and Arrowhead Kingdom