With one little week… 7 little days… to go until the 2018 NFL Draft begins, it’s time to publish my final look at who the Kansas City Chiefs might be taking, with an eye towards the list of possibilities. What I’ll be doing here today is giving you a list of all the players who were made available to me when I made this mock at First-Pick.com with some reasoning behind each selection.
Pick #54: DT Nathan Shepard, 6-foot-4, 315 lbs.
Nathan Shepard has been making a steady rise up the draft board this spring and if the draft was another month away he might find himself ranked as a first rounder. Shepard is from Fort Hays State which is straight out I-70 just over half the way to Colorado. You might think that taking a small school prospect with your first pick is risky, but so was taking Eric Fisher with the first pick in the draft 5 years ago and I think Shepard has a bigger upside than Fisher has shown us. Shepard had an excellent Senior Bowl week which is a great time to show what you can do against other players who are heading to the big leagues too… and he dominated that week, making some OL prospects look like high schoolers. Shepard was my choice over some other very talented prospects but take a look first at all the players already taken (chosen ahead of me by First-Pick.com):
With those players already out of the mix to be chosen at #54, here are all the players I could have chosen at #54:
The players in red are the players who got the most consideration. Although RB Nick Chubb was present on this list, it was hard for me to justify taking a running back with the Chiefs first pick with so many other needs on defense. However, I must confess, there’s a real chance Nick Chubb is going to be there when the Chiefs actually do pick because Chubb shows up available at pick #54 almost every time I mock. What the Chiefs will do in that case is anyone’s guess. QB Mason Rudolph was intriguing but seems impossible with all the draft capital the Chiefs have invested in their current QB. CB Isiah Oliver was the other player I almost chose but… now having a familiarity with the depth of corners in this draft… and the lack of depth of DTs… I sided with Shepard. RB Ronald Jones III and TE Mike Gesicki both came across like luxury picks that were unjustifiable in the face of the Chiefs critical level defensive needs.
Pick #78: CB Isaac Yiadom, 6-foot-1, 190 lbs.
So, here are the prospects I was considering when I decided upon CB Isaac Yiadom. As above with Shepard, in blue, you’ll see Isaac’s name to indicate he was my choice:
It’s incredible to me that Nick Chubb is still available (that’s why you usually need to take these online mock-generators with a grain of salt). WR Courtland Sutton from SMU is an excellent talent and may end up a star in the NFL one day. OT Orlando Brown was someone I did not see as a first round talent even before his abysmal combine performance but he is highlighted here because if he falls this far, I can see the Chiefs considering him. CB Donte Jackson is a typical choice here and with his superior speed may win out.
Pick #86: SS Terrell Edmunds, 6-foot-2, 220 lbs.
Terrell’s brother, Tremaine, is a 6-foot-4 inch, 250 pound OLB who can fly. This Edmunds, Terrell, ran a 4.47 40-yard dash so he’s by no means the slow child in the family. Terrell’s broad jump of 11-feet-2-inches combined with his vertical jump of 41-and-a-half inches, show just how incredibly explosive he can be. He has he size and speed to be a long time fixture at Strong Safety long after Eric Berry is gone.
Take a look at who was already chosen by pick #86:
Below is a list of choices I had to choose from for pick #86:
Pick #122: IOL Mason Cole, 6-foot-4, 305 lbs.
In Lyle Graversen’s Fan Guide to the Chiefs Offensive Line he said it best of Cole:
“Cole would give the Chiefs some valuable depth across the line with his experience at both tackle and center. However, his short arms and lateral agility make tackle in the NFL a poor fit. Cole should make a good starting interior lineman in the NFL. I believe that Cole would definitely have a shot at winning the starting left guard position in KC and at worst would replace Zach Fulton as a guy that could back up all three interior line spots (or even tackle in a pinch).”
While many fans listen to and swallow what the GMs of this league hype regularly, that they always select, “the best player available” (BPA), what they often mean is, BVA… best value available. Now, that’s a much different story which takes into account how a player fits into a teams system. Obviously, the Chiefs are not shopping for players who are Defensive Ends in a 4-3 defense. So, every teams is not only looking for the best… but best for their team… prospect.
Take a look at the prospects available right before #122:
Quenton Meeks was my biggest temptation but since I already took a corner, I went with Cole. Besides the interior of the OL needs some attention ever since Zach Fulton left town.
Pick #124: FS Jessie Bates III, 6-foot-4, 305 lbs.
Free Safety Jessie Bates had some very good numbers at the combine.
Clearly, the Chiefs need more help at the Safety position and adding a second Safety through this draft should not upset the more rabid K.C. fans. If the offseason object is now to fix the defense, bringing in talent to the Safety position should be a high priority.
The list above, which I chose Mason Cole from, is basically the same list I had for choosing Bates. Both quarterback’s, Luke Falk and Mike White, were there and it would be my last chance to get a quality QB but leaving Free Safety uncovered when each prospect appeared of similar value was too much to pass on. DT Trenton Thompson was a possibility but with Shepard I thought the rotation would “average” out while we are not 100% sure that Eric Berry will be back as good as new… yet. I know, there are reports that he is fine, but I have my doubts until the Chiefs make through a whole season without him going down again.
Pick #196: OG Tony Adams, 6-foot-1, 315 lbs.
I’m sure there are those who see Tony Adams height and think he’ll be an inferior Offensive Guard but I’m not one of those guys. NFL.com says of him:
“Adams was a four-year starter at guard for the Wolfpack and is an outstanding run blocker. He’s powerful presence at the point of attack… Adams (6-foot-1, 314 pounds) was a second-team All-ACC choice for the second year in a row. He competed in the East-West Shrine Game.”
When I watch him in action I see someone who can get under a lot of defensive players and he uses his leverage to win. His quickness and balance have come under question but he looks trainable and that’s huge in Reid’s system.
Pick #233: WR Cedric Wilson, 6-foot-3, 188 lbs.
Yep, you see that right… he is railroad-rail thin but he doesn’t appear to play with any kind of tentativeness. In fact, he’s comfortable going over the middle and doesn’t shy away from contact. He came to the Boise Sate program via the junior college circuit and had really good junior and senior seasons going for 2,640 yards in those two years with 139 receptions and 18 TDs. While those number really pop out, it’s his 19.0 yards per reception that jumps off the page.
In a recent piece by Ransom Hawthorne, he said this of the wide receiver position for the Chiefs which bares repeating:
“…fans don’t realize how thin Chiefs are at WR. Hill and Watkins are both elite, but Conley has had average production, at best, and that’s when he was healthy. Robinson dropped a ton of passes in the Denver game and DAT hasn’t done much at all, since his first year. Outside of that, you have a few guys who could be good, but haven’t really done anything, in the league, yet.”
WR Cedric Wilson could be a boon to the Chiefs wide receiving corp.
Pick #243: OLB Joe Ostman, 6-foot-3, 250 lbs.
There are Chiefs fans who see the OLB position in great peril. I compare the depth of that position to others like the NT position where there literally aren’t starting quality players to put on the field. Although the future of the OLB position does need to be attended to, since the Chiefs don’t have a first round pick to invest in an OLB, DC Bob Sutton must be creative in the ways he’ll apply pressure to opposing QBs in 2018. That’s not to say that Joe Ostman will not be a star, it’s possible, but the most common path to excellence at the OLB position is through the first round, even more so than at QB.
Here’s what NFL.com has to say about Ostman,
“In Ostman, the combine passed on the FBS leader in sacks (14). Lightly recruited out of high school, Ostman (6-3, 250) has a background in wrestling but developed quickly as a pass rusher and notched 27 sacks for his career. The East-West Shrine participant’s eventual NFL position is something of a question. Said CMU coach John Bonamego, a longtime NFL special-teams coach: “When he gets into a camp, he’s going to be a really hard guy to get rid of.”
My Final Mock 2.0 Conclusion
This draft comes down to strategizing and leverage. The Chiefs may have done their due diligence but they don’t have much draft capital leverage to work with unless they dig into next season’s booty to trade up higher this year and I hope, hope, hope, they don’t give away their future like that. While I do see this team as being competitive in the AFC West and could well win their third consecutive title there, they are likely a year away from putting together a roster that will compete for the Lamar Hunt Trophy so they can win the game following that one and maybe someday throw a second parade.
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