There is a lot of focus on the upcoming draft these days, so I thought I would take a minute and look at the upcoming schedule for the 2017 season. I know it was announced quite some time ago, but things have changed. So, I wanted to run down the teams and see what thoughts I had on who we were playing.
In this process, I thought I would look at our recent performance and also account for the venue. We still don’t have an exact schedule yet, but we know who and where.
Home Games
Denver Broncos, OakVegas Raiders, San Angeles Chargers, Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and Miami Dolphins.
In the regular season last year, we played 4 of these teams and went 3-1. In 2015, we beat the Bills. In 2014, we beat the Dolphins. And, in 2013, we beat the Eagles. So, basically, the last time we played each of these teams, except the Steelers, we beat them. I am sure this is an indicator of future success, so chalk up 7 wins here.
Away Games
Denver Broncos, OakVegas Raiders, San Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New York Jets, and New York Giants.
In the regular season last year, we played 5 of these teams and went 4-1. In 2014, we beat the Patriots (and set a noise record while benching Brady). And in 2013, we beat the Cowboys and Giants. So, again, the last time we played each of these teams, except the Texans, we beat them. This will continue to be an indicator of future success, so chalk up 7 more wins here.
It looks like we will go 14-2 based on recent successes. I think we can all agree this is reasonable and likely, however, I would like to call out a few games and give my take on them.
Difference Makers
I am going to leave out the AFC West in this portion, as they always seem to be an anything goes matchup. The home field advantage doesn’t always work out, strengths look like weaknesses and vice versa, and you can never underestimate the effect of the rivalries.
Moving on to the other 10 games, I’d like to start with the Home group. In this group, I am glad we get Pittsburgh at home. We have had some tough games with them recently. One because we were blown out and the other because we never showed up. Having whatever edge we can get from a home game with them is nice.
After the Steelers though, we have what should be mostly cake walks, somewhat negating the home field advantage. Or, it at least doesn’t capitalize on it. Miami may end up being one we appreciate the noise advantage. They may be on a shallow ascent and could be a tougher team than in recent years. (I don’t see them unseating NE yet, but more competitive).
While we might go 5-2 or even 6-1 here (OakVegas and Pittsburgh being the challenges), this looks like the easy section of the schedule.
Depth Testers
With the Away group, I see much bigger challenges. Here we are facing three 2016 Division Champs on the road. They had a combined record of 36-12. That is a 75% victory rate, with Houston pulling down the average. Houston did come out of the worst division in the NFL, but they still won it. After that group, we have the NFC East runner-up, the NY Giants, also on the road. Arguably they are better than the Texans and should not be taken lightly. The only soft team would be the NY Jets.
If I were to attempt to objectively evaluate our chances against this group, I would say 4-4 or 5-3. Since we are on the road and playing top teams, it won’t be hard to drop some to them.
Our ability to hit 5-3 will depend a lot on the depth of our talent. We need to have that strength so we can rotate players to keep them fresh throughout the season and during these games. If we have the depth, we can use that to wear down the opposition.
The Rub
The challenge with evaluations like this is that past success ISN’T an indicator of future success. Worst to First or First to Worst can happen. These offseasons really are critical. The existing staff evaluations, getting new contracts signed for those you want to retain, attracting free agents and getting them signed, who is drafted, and even who gets injured before the season all play into the success.
The role of the GM and their front office team is crucial in finding the “Right 53” and that is what they are working on now (probably as I type). They must not just find the best players out there, but the ones that fit our scheme and our game plan within the division.
From a prior look at Dorsey’s drafting, he has done a pretty solid job overall. He hasn’t been perfect and definitely blew some, but overall I like what he has done.
From what I was writing here, he should look to build his depth to possibly offset the Away opponents more. Perhaps this means getting some players that seem to do better on road games or maybe it means free agents that have had success against Tom Brady, Eli Manning, or Dak Prescott types. I don’t know how (if I did, then I would probably be a GM), but those might be some options.
It has been fun talking this through and I would like to hear your thoughts on where our challenging games/opponents will be in 2017 and maybe how you would address the team’s needs based on our opponents.
Until next week, there’s The Rub!
