Lucky or Good? Or Is It Something Else?
I have been reading posts and comments talking about the Kansas City Chiefs being either Lucky or Good. These conversations seem to come up a lot when teams seem to be thoroughly beaten and then somehow pull out a win. The Chiefs seem to be in that situation a lot this year.
On Sunday we watched the Carolina Panthers play a first half where it looked like they owned our Chiefs. (Mainly because they did own us in the first half) Carolina went into halftime with a 17-3 lead and all the momentum.
THE TURNAROUND
After the half the Chiefs defense didn’t just pitch a shutout, they took over. This was a pretty amazing feat as the number crunchers at ESPN had Carolina as a 98.1% probability of winning at one point in the game.
After Kansas City punted on their first drive of the second half, the Panthers kicked off a 20 play drive from their own 9-yard line. They were able to drive all the way down to the KC 20 yard line before the game turned.
1st & 10 – Cam Newton pushed out of bounds for -1
2nd & 11 – Cam Newton sacked for -7
3rd & 18 – Cam Newton sacked for -12
4th & 30 – Punt for touchback (KC ball at the 20)
On the Panthers’ next possession, Newton was intercepted by his long-time nemesis, Eric Berry. Berry wasn’t done though; he thought the football needed to be returned to its house. He took off on a 42-yard scamper and met Newton at the 1-yard line, but it was too little too late and Newton wasn’t able to tackle Berry before he scored.
A couple more Panther punts and a couple more Chief field goals and we are sitting at 17-17 with 0:29 on the clock, Panther ball at their 20. Best bet for the Panthers is to kneel on it and go to overtime, right? Instead they complete a 14 yard pass and during a gang tackle, Marcus Peters rips the ball free and picks up 10 more yards on the fumble return.
With 0:20 remaining, the Chiefs pick up 11 yards on 1st and then center the ball on 2nd, setting up a game-winning Cairo Santos field goal.
MAKING THEIR OWN LUCK
Was it lucky the Defense not only stonewalled Newton at the 20, but then made back to back sacks to push the Panthers out of Field Goal range? Was it lucky that Berry didn’t just make an interception, but returned it 42 yards, making it a Pick 6? Was it lucky that Peters didn’t just rip the ball free from the hands of the receiver, but held onto it, and returned it 10 yards?
What if the halves were flipped? What if the Chiefs scored 17 in the first half and shutout the Panthers, then let them back into it in the second half, still winning with the last second field goal (both halves having KC score a field goal in the final seconds). We might still be hearing that the team was lucky, but probably not good.
OFFENSIVE OFFENSE
Enough about the defense, how lucky or good was the offense? Well not very good, but maybe lucky they didn’t lose the game somehow with an inopportune turnover. There was the early interception, when Alex Smith went for the long touchdown pass. And, there was the fumble out of bounds on a Tyreek Hill reception.
Other than those miscues, the rest was just mediocre (at best) play of the offense. Comparing the 2 teams statistically, they were pretty close in drives, plays, first downs, and rushing yardage. Where the 2 teams differed was in passing yardage, yards per play, passing yardage, time of possession, red zone efficiency, and turnovers. Almost all of those favored the Panthers. However, the key statistic that may have made the difference in the game is the turnover battle. The Panthers lost that one.
Quite often we hear how Alex Smith doesn’t take enough chances and can’t carry a team on his back. Well, I would say the counter to that would be what Newton did today. He took a few too many chances. One resulted in a Pick 6 and a couple others pushed his team out of Field Goal range, net difference of 10 points. Those probably cost his team the game.
THIS IS A DIFFERENT TEAM
While I want to see our offense improve (and do expect they will), I would rather see this sort of conservative approach and let the defense be the team identity. If the offense can be lucky and the defense can be good, the team can go deep into the playoffs. Anything above that and we can compete in a Superbowl.
One thing I feel differently this year than in years past is that we aren’t out of it when we get down by 2 or even 3 scores. I remember thinking when Carolina went up 17-0 that the Chiefs could come back if the defense stepped up. I wasn’t necessarily thinking they would score, but just get a turnover or two to fire up the offense.
Watching the final drive stall out with the score tied at 17, did cause me some thoracic discomfort, but I think I am becoming used to it. However, as a precaution, I did purchase my own AED. I’d suggest everyone buy one, if they haven’t yet.
With seven games remaining, four of which are against division rivals, we need to be both lucky and good. And, just to be safe, I’d like to throw in the other thing that is helping us win…MAGIC! I don’t know about you guys, but I love a good magic show. Welcome Houdini Chiefs!
And there’s The Rub!
