David Bell
In the past few weeks, we have migrated along with our Football Club from OTAs through the Mandatory Mini Camp. ArrowheadOne has published several articles on the players and how the upcoming 53-man roster appears to be shaping up. We have positioned the various player groups according to the outlook for their strength with the anticipated starters and depth players. The outlook for each group is positive. Concerns have been voiced by the authors and the ArrowheadOne readership. We have worked to illuminate the positives and minimize any negatives that have cropped up.
Veach Gives Reid a Strong Roster
As for myself, I view the likely Chiefs roster as very strong with a coaching staff that will put players in the correct position for them to succeed, play-to-play, game-to-game. I see no reason to believe the coaching staff under Andy Reid will fail to accomplish this as a goal… from week to week, game to game. I view the likely Chiefs roster as very strong and Andy Reid has put together an extremely capable coaching staff that is at the pinnacle of all those of the NFL. I cannot see that the staff would fail in putting players in the correct position for each individual snap. I cannot see the staff as failing at this task.
Anticipating a Roster Addition
It remains completely possible that the Chiefs could add a Veteran Wide Receiver. Several names have come up in the rumor mill and DeAndre Hopkins has prominently figured in various conjectures. That outcome seems unlikely to occur. While it remains true that until a couple of player situations are resolved, we may not be able to look down the road far enough to be able to see the future in 2024, but we can be assured who the foundation players are and that they will be available, barring any disastrous injuries in training camp or in a preseason game.
My concerns for 2024 remain unresolved: Chris Jones’s contract has not been locked down, nor has that of L’Jarius Sneed. I have also observed that I would like to see a veteran Edge Rusher added to the mix for 2023. I thought the Chiefs might be able to bring back Frank Clark –> who has now signed with the Rocky Mountain enemy. Barring that, someone like Carlos Dunlap or Melvin Ingram remains unsigned but remain possibilities. Ingram played for the Chefs in 2021 and Dunlap last season. I liked what Carlos brought to the table and would like to see him return due to his leadership on the field and in the clubhouse for the young players.
In 2022, George Karlaftis benefited greatly from having Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap as live-action tutors. This year, another rookie edge player was drafted: Kansas State EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah (FAU). I think he would benefit in a like manner from what happened for Karlaftis in 2022 — which is the main reason I would like to see such a veteran addition. It is a fact that FAUs play style is more akin to that of Melvin Ingram, but at the same time, I admire Carlos Dunlap. We’ll see in the coming weeks whether this idea comes to fruition. I am trying to be patient and recognize how late Dunlap was added to the roster last season. Also, it’s notable that Dunlap wanted to be with K.C. and the same can’t necessarily be said for Ingram.
How to Minimize a “Glitch”
When I think about any glitches that I witnessed in 2022, what immediately grabs my attention is a single game: when the Chiefs faced the Colts. Indianapolis was an inferior team to Kansas City, but they pulled off a victory over Reid & Co. in Indy. How they did that… keeps me scratching my head. The bottom line of that game was failure to execute, which resulted in broken drives and inability to score. Even the final score tells the story in and of itself: Chiefs 17, Colts 20. To review the game highlights, you can see it here:
.
.
The offense had an inept day and could not overcome booting possessions into the NFL nederlands. The Defense had many good plays, including sacks by L’Jarius Sneed, Carlos Dunlap, and two by Nick Bolton, but the result of which went for naught.
.
Glitch #2 & #3: Losses to the Bills and Bengals
It’s difficult to even consider either of these regular-season losses to the Buffalo or Cincinnati as a “Glitch.” The fact is, the Chiefs lost to two quality teams: by 4 to the Bills, 20-24 and then to the Bengals by 3, 24-27. The loss to the Colts stands out due to the quality of the opponent and the fact that in that game, the Chief’s offense clearly did not live up to its own standard.
The Magic Number Failures –> in all three losses the Chiefs failed to get a win by holding the opponent to my magic number of 20.
.
The offense failed to meet its average PPG –> 29.2
Had they scored to that average, even missing out on holding the opponent to 20, the Chiefs would logically have won the game… had they scored at their average for the season. I believe the Chiefs can exceed the 30-point mark, but… they have not met my expectation in this regard. Of course, the APPG is determined by all games played during the season.
.
Numbers by StatMuse
.
Andy Reid’s recent observation about score differential points to the fact that most games played are hotly contested, with the difference being 7 points or less.
.
.
In 2022 the Chiefs had won by more than a TD in games including the game vs. Buccaneers, the Cardinals, and the 49ers fit that category. All were wins that exceeded a 10-point difference. Also fitting this scenario were games against the Jaguars, Broncos (twice by more than 7 points), Rams, Seahawks, and the 2nd game versus the Raiders.
However, the rest of the games in the season were close contests, including an OT win versus the Titans by 3 points which buttresses what Andy Reid made a note about. In the game at NRG Stadium vs the Texans, they won by 6 points, but it took an OT to pull that game out with a win. Both games vs the Chargers were by 3-point margins and in neither game did the Chiefs offense match their PPGM average of 29.2. Also, the first game vs the Raiders was a 1 point win at Arrowhead.
.
.
I think you get the gist of scoring and margin of victory. Division rivals that are playing well are tough to beat, and sweeping your own division is even tougher. Week-to-week scoring is situational, and as you can see meeting the expected PPG is tough to d, even though this cannot be determined until all games are completed.
.
Maximizing the “Nitch”
Facing opponents week to week, Andy Reid designs a strategy to attack the other team while defending against the opposing offense. How well he accomplishes this job, is part and parcel of what he and his coaching staff work up for each opponent. Success is determined by the Chiefs Won/Loss Record. In 2022 they finished the season 14-3. Almost no pundit believed the Chiefs would be able to reach this record. A few predicted the Chiefs barely getting ten wins. I predicted 13-4 last season. This year, I started out with that record in mind, but later upped it to 15-2.
.
The factors that I believe are important (in this generalized predictive view of the 2023 season):
.
.
Expected Points Added – EPA
The basic definition for EPA is:
.
“The concept of Expected Points (EP) was first introduced in a 1970 research paper by Virgil Carter, who was the Bengals starting QB at the time, and Robert Machol, who was a professor at Northwestern. Their paper quantified a concept intuitively understood by all football fans — possessing the ball closer to your opponent’s endzone is better than possessing it further away. Carter and Machol did this by adding together the point value and probability of all potential outcomes of a possession. As teams approach their opponent’s endzone, the probability of scoring (Touchdowns and Field Goals) increases.”
.
This definition and measurement improved to provide the following view.
Today’s Expected Points models have evolved to account for significantly more game context. Instead of simply considering field position, today’s models also account for other factors like down and distance, time remaining in the half, and the expected points the opponent gains when the ball is punted or turned over. This unlocks more useful analysis, like understanding the relative values of downs at particular points on the field. The Stat outlook developed even further:
.
“When a team has 1st and 10 from their own 30 yard line, they are expected to score as many points as when they have 3rd and 10 from midfield. From this, we can say that 1st and 10 from the 30 is worth the same as 3rd and 10 from the 50.”
.
.
.
.
Below is a graph that illustrates the construct:
.
.
Adding distance-to-go provides additional context as to how many yards must be gained to “stay on schedule:”
Bottom Line
The Chiefs have a capable roster even with unproven talents, such as along the defensive front and the WR corps. It is my view that the most bang for the buck — with a free agent signings — should be an edge rusher. They have a capable offense+ (especially with Mahomes and Kelce) and solid defense (without holes). 30 PPG is reachable for the offense, and that’s not far fetched sine they had 29.2 PPG in 2022.
The WR crew is an exposure because they have question marks to succeed. They must match expectation with performance. At this point, questions remain, but from my read coming out of the Kingdom has been extremely positive. If the Chiefs were to sign D-Hop, would it put the offense over the top? I think it would, but as I noted above, I now think such a signing is unlikely.
Note: I increased the magic number from 17 to 20 points after the 2018 season due to the league’s prolific aerial capability.
.
David Bell — ArrowheadOne
.