With the 2017 NFL Draft order coming more and more into focus, it’s clear that there is no one quarterback who is the clear cut number one overall pick. However, that won’t stop some teams from going for the gusto and picking a non-deserving prospect way above his pay-grade. One such case of this is reflected in Dane Brugler’s Top Ten Mock Draft for CBS Sports shown below.
I don’t doubt that there’s a possibility that what Dane Brugler has mocked could happen. It very well might. If it does, those teams taking a quarterback with their top ten pick will have made a mistake in all likelihood. Why would I say that? A couple of reasons: 1) I haven’t heard one expert — or non-expert — say that there’s an Andrew Luck or a Peyton Manning or for that matter, an Alex Smith in this draft and, 2) compare those 3 QBs to those mocked picks — numbers 6 through 10 — and then look me in the eyes and tell me with a straight face that any one of those players is not a whole lot better than one of the 3 QBs mocked at 2, 3 and 5.
Yep, I didn’t think so.
While you can reason that this is only a mock, this happens quite a bit. Look at this chart of all the QBs taken in NFL draft in the past five years.
Every QB with a red arrow next to their name received the majority of snaps in their rookie year. The QBs above the red lines are those who were selected in the top ten of their respective draft classes. While five of the eight QBs taken in the top ten — Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill — are still expected to be successful with their franchise, there are three others who haven’t shown their full promise yet. Also, there are an equal number of QBs taken outside of the top ten — eight — as there are within the top ten, who received the majority of their team’s snaps as a rookie.
There is no proof that just because you select a QB in the top ten, that the QB will be successful. Every QB is a risk no matter where you select them in the team pecking order. In fact, if you take Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater and Russell Wilson — those guys picked way outside of the top ten — and compare those four against Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill… except for Luck… the better QB choices would have to be the Prescott group.
A big part of the reason that this year’s possible top ten QBs won’t be successful is… the teams they are being drafted by are not very good teams. After all, that’s why they’re picking in the top ten. However, you could also use that same logic to make a case for those teams needing to draft a non-QB top ten talent instead of drafting one based on neediness. In the case of the Cleveland Browns who have the 1st and the 12th picks in the draft, they have the opportunity to either select three top talents in the first 33 picks or even trade back and gain even more premiere talents. The reason the Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson or Teddy Bridgewater were so successful is that they were drafted by teams that already had a host of very good players on their rosters on both sides of the ball. No one single QB draft pick is going to save a franchise in the first year anyway.
A win-now-at-all-costs approach to breaking in rookie QBs is usually bad for their long-term development. Trail-by-fire indoctrination usually gets players burnt out way too early. This may be one reason that Andy Reid has a reputation for being a QB-whisperer in that he’s perfectly willing to allow a QB with potential to hold a clipboard for years at a time. Joe Montana didn’t start the majority of the 49ers games until his third season and Tom Brady held a clipboard for his first 17 games.
Take a look at the stats that CBS Sports provided on the top three in this mock:
Mitch Trubisky is a 22-year-old Junior who only has experience in a spread offense and while his numbers look promising, he’s a one-year wonder. DeShone Kizer is a 21-year-old Junior who could have benefitted from returning for a Senior year and NFL.com said of Kizer, “Gets stuck on primary read missing out on early openers around field.” Sound familiar? Deshaun Watson is a Junior who is championship-tested but his TD-to-INT ratio is too high and has accuracy issues although I love his leadership ability and CBS Sports says he compares well to Marcus Mariota. None of these young men are going to be a Russell Wilson or a Dak Prescott in year one. Especially for teams like San Francisco, Chicago or the Jets… teams who collectively produced 10 wins in 2016.
If these three QBs can sit for a year or two, each will have a shot at successfully leading their team down the road. Otherwise, drafting them so high is a mistake.
Our own NFL guru and blog expert, Berttheclock, has stated,
“Please, please, please, let there be no QBs taken by Mr Dorsey anywhere near the first three rounds. There is, absolutely, no QB worth his salt in this draft to waste such a high pick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
Now, he’s referring to the Chiefs taking one of these quarterbacks with the 27th pick. I’ve been following the Kansas City Chiefs since their first Super Bowl year in 1969 so I’m well aware of the fans who want the team to be in the habit of picking a QB early and often. If you want to land a big fish you have to get a pole in the water. I get that. However, when you have a top ten pick and the talent pool is empty of high-value quarterbacks, it’s a mistake to be signing them and then expecting them to lead your team to the promised land.
There have been 58 quarterbacks taken in the draft over the past five seasons. Nine of those have turned out to be above average and their teams have great hope that they’ll be able to become their long-term franchise face and leader. Several others are still in play. Some of those were drafted in the top ten. Many other were not and it’s apparent that just because you draft a QB in the top ten, doesn’t guarantee their success. For the most part, it looks like it’s a mistake that many teams make — and surprisingly or not — will continue to make. There are plenty of high-quality quarterbacks who’ve been drafted high in the draft too… it just doesn’t appear that one of those kinds of QBs is available this year.
I like what NFL draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has to say about this draft,
This draft is so deep. I have about 70 guys worthy of a top 50 spot. The 2nd/3rd round is going to produce a lot of future pro bowlers.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) February 25, 2017
I just don’t believe it is a great year for quarterbacks at the top of the draft.