Josh Kingsley
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The CHIEFS are the class of the League and also the current victors. To the victors go the spoils. Clark Hunt punctuated day one of the draft by donning his rings, loading up the trio of Lombardi’s and taking the stage for the 31st pick. He started by setting the trophies on their respective pedestals, and then hyped the crowd before selecting a KC native to play edge. It was a blast for CHIEFS fans and a knife twist with a side of salt for the rest of the League’s fans. Naturally, some fans and journalists didn’t care for the CHIEFS pride on a display during an All-League event. A couple writers took to social media to air grievances. The two Tweets that jumped out most to me are these:
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Who are these guys? Glad you asked!!
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Michael Salfino runs a media company called Meadowlands Media group, and writes freelance for The Athletic, Wall Street Journal and FiveThirtyEight. Based on his Tweets, LinkedIn photo and basic deductive reasoning the guy appears to be a Knicks, Giants and Mets fan.
Ben Volin writes for the Boston Globe and covers the Patriots. Knowing their backgrounds I have to say I understand their frustration with the hometown KC pride. New York, Boston and their fans are well-known for their history of humble professionalism in all instances of victory. I am super sorry they didn’t enjoy themselves and trust most of Kansas City joins my condolence.
Cue the violin music.
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I alluded to this in my day two recap. We live in a digital age where privacy is tough and mostly gone for interesting people. Social media works as a horrible weapon in this arena. The converse side is the ease of newsbreak. This is probably more of a positive thing…probably. However, it does make it difficult to keep secrets. The CHIEFS took another high end WR prospect. That move, the round two pick of Rice, surprised absolutely no one. Many analysts backed rumblings of a round one pick. Mahomes is by all accounts a workaholic who throws to anyone who will catch a football during his offseason. This normally means his entire depth chart and roster hopeful crew. Prospects, free agents, and other pass catchers with Texas ties. Nothing new and Mahomes isn’t unique for doing this.
The whole thing became news for the simple fact the CHIEFS profile as WR needy until a true WR1 emerges. Everyone, self and all other parties on this site included, watched the news cycle with eager eyes. Reports flew about great workouts the likes of Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers. Both those guys gushed about the prospect of catching balls at Arrowhead. Mock draft speculation fueled the projections of KC trading up for one of these guys.
I never saw a word about Rashee Rice during the pre-draft buildup. Not a word. None of the mocks sent him to KC. He was a name in the pool of pass catchers. On draft day two, Veach traded up for his guy. By draft day three reports came to light of excellent chemistry in Mahomes-led throwing sessions. I have no clue how the CHIEFS kept this quiet, but it was masterful.
I professionally live in spreadsheets, and it spread to my personal life as well. My constant goal is production of simple math to explain things. Some call this stats. I pulled the full list of draft picks, dropped them in Excel, broke apart the entries, re-combined many fields into players, schools and positions, renamed the positions, added abbreviations, build classifications, and created a couple pivot tables. That probably went past anyone who doesn’t live in Excel, so it didn’t necessarily mean anything. I just wanted to illustrate how hard it was (shameless call back to a favorite Morgan Freeman scene on Batman Begins – no video available). My goal was a tight view of NFL team behavior. Here is a chart of all 259 picks by percentage of total draft by position.
Here is some quick match for the top of the chart. Teams targeted the WR position heaviest in a pass-happy league. The next four positions are all defense and combine for a whopping 36.7% of picks. That suggests an overall trend toward returned focus to containing said pass-happy offenses. A major thing I noticed was inconsistencies in position assignment. The major point is Edge, LB and DE all as positions when players may or may not be doing the same thing. I realized quickly I needed to go through all 43 LB and DE to add edge, view as totally independent or find another way. I picked choice three.
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There was simply too much going on to make this consumable. My solution –> create categories:
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Football is moving to a world of more positional fluidity. I don’t think we ever ditch the position designations completely, but this combination feels natural. Most fantasy football analysts combined WR and TE and to simply pass catchers in reviews a couple years ago. Take that as you will, I put major stock in it. Here is how that chart looks:
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This adds clarity to the collective league approach as the positions combine into responsibility. Let’s look for trends. Quick note: I did isolate the first three rounds and the percentages were same as the whole draft.
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The League’s GM collective sees a need to arm their defenses. This is not a landslide by any means. On a high level the breakdown is 50% D, 47% O, 3% ST. In the draft. Let’s stake this claim: specialist, meaning K and P, emerge almost exclusively through free agency. I think we all knew this, but math and stats. The interesting part for me was the weight toward preventer over trench pressure. Football builds through the trenches, but GMs appease fans with flash.
The trench focus is less on the offensive side of the ball. A mere 17% of picks focused on the protection piece while 25% targeted weapons. Ultimately, GMs know what puts people in their seats, which is why offense runs the League in the first place.
Welcome to this week’s edition of Brett Veach is ahead of the curve. Veach made seven picks. Here is his breakdown:
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That’s right, BV went 72% – D, 28% – O. By my earlier definition he favored flash, but his D focus resonates. I routinely criticized the Packers, along with MAAAAAAANY others, for avoiding weapons like the plague during the Rodgers Era. By the way it’s still crazy we now speak of it in the past tense. Veach focuses much heavier on FA supplementation and also consistently dedicates big resources to offensive weapons. However, he correctly recognizes the need to oppose the continuous offensive arms race he contributed to starting.
Glad he and his plan are in our corner. He went heavier than the norm on D and trench pressure, which is awesome. The protection weight could be higher, but that seems like hair splitting at this point. With the new guy we have a total of four big bodies targeting two positions plus depth. That’s a good spot.
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We are at the beginning of what I consider the real preseason. The roster is taking shape in meaningful ways after the draft festivities. When the schedule finally releases it actually feels real. More on that in a mere week (NFL Schedule Release Date is May 11 – next Thursday). However, we do still have months before games start, so analysis is just beginning on this draft class. Today, I overview every pick from a personal and/or fan view, and then also a football view. Let’s meet the new guys!!
Our first round pick fell to the end of the round, which is rare for an edge rusher of his caliber. That story pales in comparison to the real one. The real story goes something like a kid from Lees Summit grew up a die hard CHIEFS fan, went to local college, Kansas State, entered the NFL draft (in Kansas City BTW) and went to the CHIEFS a first rounder. Disney might as well commission the screenplay for this now. I understand the guy needs to be good in the NFL first, but you cannot make up a better story. For the football side I brought in a consultant. My cousin, Nathan, graduated from K-State, coaches high school football (made the 2022 Kansas 4A title game) in Wamego, and is as a big a Wildcat fan I know. Here is his much better than I could possibly muster take:
“Long athletic edge. Played in a 3 down system at K-State and faced a lot of chips/doubles in pass pro situations this past year to slow him down. Generated a significant number of holding calls and I am biased but far more could have been called. Has great bend off the edge and surprising power. Great kid with a great work ethic. Was basically un-recruited and busted his ass to become a first round pick. Him and Karlaftis are somewhat similar and both will benefit from teams being unable to help the edge with Chris Jones around.”
Tons to like in that commentary. I sum it up as timely player with timeless appeal.
All the personal thoughts reside in the cloak and dagger section. The football thoughts start with this core WR stats: 96 rec., 1355 rec. yds, 14.1 YPC, 10 rec. TD. His yardage was 3rd, receptions 5th, TD 13th in all NCAA/FBS for a 4th place AAC team. That translates to a highly productive WR from a decent team in a decent conference that produced seven bowl teams. Those guys often become great pro players.
Music lovers like me may have projected, but this is my longest, least relevant analysis. This was a layup for my style. Wanya Morris shares a name with a member of 90s R&B powerhouse, Boyz II Men. Misty quickly pointed out Wanya, as in Boyz II Men Wanya, as a recent Dancing with the Stars contestant. The Wanya, as in CHIEFS Wanya, pick coupled with the band connection surfaced this question: what are my favorite Boyz II Men songs. This question surfaced because of course it did. Let’s journey!!
I start by saying this is all my personal preference. Boyz II Men have an awesome catalog and you cannot go wrong with their harmonious soul. It’s all good stuff but here are my favorites. The other thing I will mention is this is not a top 5, so ignore the order. My guide to getting to know Boyz II Men. Here is a link by another writer who did a proper top 10. You will find all my picks on this list, but I neither agree nor disagree with the order.
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This is their debut single from their debut album, 1991’s Cooleyhighharmony. When I hear Boyz II Men I think of this song and their look in all visuals around it.
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In 1994 they put out their best album, II. This was the third of fourth single release. The legendary Babyface composed and produced the song. My draw is the beautiful composition led by the driving cello melodies. The music video’s desert settings with cello players is iconic.
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This cover of the 1956 Five Satins hit is a great song.
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This one is less about the song itself and more about it’s spot for me as a wedding DJ. There are tons of father/daughter dance songs, but very few mother/son songs. This is one of the few and always on my Boyz II Men list.
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This is a 90s decade defining song. Mariah Carey put out her best album, Daydream, in 1995. For the record, “Always Be My Baby” is the best track. The album featured this “duet” with Boyz II Men. The historical context is massive. Mariah is the best singer of the 90s, and possibly ever – see the vocal range graphic below. Boyz II Men are the 90s best R&B group, and that genre defines much of that decade. This song was fire and owned the charts then, and it holds up today.
I’ll keep this brief. He is a versatile lineman with starts at both tackle positions in a power five conference team. I’m not sure what his 2023 position will be, but I know he has one with this team.
Chamarri mixes personal and football thoughts. He played S in college, but profiles as a switch to slot CB in the NFL. If this sounds familiar it’s because he projects following the exact path of L’Jarius Sneed. This is good for the CHIEFS as the history is recent and effective. It’s unfortunate for all the Sneed fans as it paints a clear picture of his exit. I like Sneed and this bums me out a bit.
BJ Thompson produced my favorite day three story. The CHIEFS called to alert him of the impending pick, but the call displayed as potential spam. My biggest question: did Brett Veach offer him a new car warranty or not? I did some digging, but cannot get a clear answer. I default to positive thoughts and choose to believe he got that warranty.
This guy started at Baylor, but never jelled. He did serve a suspension for a couple games his last season in Waco. His next stop was Stephen F. Austin where he came into his own. He performed well in the East/West Shrine Bowl, which led to his draft status. Thompson is a tall, lanky athletic freak. He possesses unparalleled speed, but questionable size. BJ’s success all hinges on his desire. If he wants it –> and works it — he will become a monstrous pass rusher. Hopefully, he does and learns some run D along the way. He is THE biggest potential upside of the class.
For the record I could reclassify Thompson as a trench pressure instead of preventer. That move swings Veach’s heaviest focus to that function and reinforces the above commentary of Veach trailblazing.
The biggest CHIEFS/Texas Longhorn fans I see on social media absolutely LOVE this pick. Those guys, like many UT fans, err to the side of homer-ism, but they also know football. Coburn immediately added to his likeability factor by gushing about deputizing Chris Jones in Kansas City. All players desire the pro dream, but this felt genuinely local.
Keondre profiles pro ready. He was a durable starter for the Longhorns. The rub is his limitation as a center clogging run stopper. Okay, well, work on the rush footwork and technique. I expect he will do just that. Spags has a big body rotational player until it happens.
Nic produced the best quote after his pick: “I’m a dog, I’m hungry.” Music to my ears. Does Veach find value at or around pick 250? Jaylen Watson (243 overall in 2022) and Isiah Pacheco (251 overall in 2022) suggests that he does. Nic Jones, like most recent CHIEFS D back picks, is in the 6’+ club. His draft profile strengths: the physical traits, length and ballhawk instinct, and his weaknesses: footwork and lack of speed. He is another late round, high upside, hard working athletic CB. A Veach pick to the core.
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That’s it for today. I now return to my regularly scheduled program: impatiently waiting for the schedule release.
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Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne and Arrowhead Kingdom
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