Josh Kingsley

I spent some more time on the road last week. The job has me out, about and away from home quite often these days. I try to avoid super long trips, but this last one was 8 consecutive days. My route for this one was the trip to Manhattan, KS I mentioned last week followed by Orlando and then New Orleans. The trips themselves didn’t produce a bunch of good stories, so I can sum them up quite quickly. I attended two trade shows, met some customers, spent time with many new colleagues and we stayed out way to late every night. Many conversations happened as I got to know a bunch of people, but nothing really unique beyond my personal quest for social interaction. New Orleans was busy, scuzzy and full of great food, but everyone already knows that.

I will add one quick recommendation: hit the Mahogany Jazz Club next visit. That place rocks. Sneaky Pete’s next door is an excellent dive bar as well. While I did not produce any groundbreaking stories I did find myself in a couple conversations constantly. The Orlando stop featured meetings with a team led by a guy from Cincinnati, and the New Orleans stop was with a team from the Dayton area. I got the full range of Bengals fans. For the most part everyone was cool and a bit jealous. I enjoy this side of that table.

The truly dominant conversation revolved around the CHIEFS impending international assignment in Germany. Full disclosure there is an element of redundancy I must admit. I put a short piece together on this for the Arrowhead Kingdom site about a month ago. We are doing major work on the site so I cannot share a link, but know the spot exists in some capacity.

Europe Bound

Admission stated it is in much need of a refresh. Let me start with a quick recap of what I put in the piece:

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•  NFL international assignments set

•  The CHIEFS are one of two teams hosting a game in Germany in 2023 (other is the Pats)

•  Games will be in the Frankfort (big soccer venue) and Munich (really big, really venerable soccer venue)

•  It will be a “home” game – specifically the 9th home game each AFC team receives from the 17th game (AFC hosts odd years, NFC even)

•  My belief was the CHIEFS play the Eagles with Bengals, Chargers and Bears as backup options in Munich

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Why the need for the refresh? I have dug into the situation substantially since the piece published, and I no longer believe the Eagles are the opponent. This topic came up with every major football fan I spent time with, so I find it quite timely. I’ll walk through my beliefs and look forward to the comment section.

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Brief History of the International Series

To this point the NFL has history in Canada, London, Mexico City and Munich. The Canada series was a bit different. Buffalo played a game annually in Toronto from 2008 – 2013 in what was an obvious flirt with moving there. The Packers did also play the Raiders in Winnipeg in 2019, but it was a preseason game. Germany is new with the Bucs hosting the Seahawks in Munich as the lone game actually played. Estadio Azteca in Mexico City hosted 4.5 games from 2016 – 2022. The half? That would be the 2018, 105 point CHIEFS Rams classic. It slated in Mexico, but moved to LA due to turf conditions. London has lifted the heaviest by a long shot.

The first London game came in 2007 and stayed a singular at Wembley Stadium through 2012. A second game added in 2013 and it became three in 2014. From 2017 to present it has gone as high as four and low as two. Wembley hosted the majority, but Twickenham Stadium, a rugby venue, grabbed a few between 2016 and 2017. In 2019 a more permanent secondary location emerged in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium AKA the home of my favorite soccer club. That venue purposely built as a dual Premier League and NFL stadium. The day the NFL adds a team in London they have a home ready made on the North side.

One final historical note: every team has at least one international appearance to date, and the Jags have a whopping NINE.

Some Scheduling Trends

The NFL has 39 international games (I am only counting London, Mexico City and Germany) in it’s history. Here are some numbers I note:

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•  20 intra-conference (AFC vs NFC) match-ups

•  19 inter-conference (AFC vs AFC or NFC vs NFC) match-ups

•  Only 4 divisional match-ups

•  Only 3 intra-conference games since 2019 (12 total)

•  5 total international games in 2022 (all NFC home designation)

•  5 total international games scheduled for 2023 (all AFC home designation

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Notable Agreement

The NFL quietly announced something in late 2021. As fans prepped for the playoffs and reflected on the first 17 game season the NFL escalated the international approach. Talk of expanding the international slate swirled for years, but this was action. As of January 1, 2022 a total of 18 teams received serious marketing rights (5 years) in international markets. Here is the release. A whopping 10 of the 18 teams have rights in Mexico, and 7 of 18 have UK rights. The Rams and Dolphins each pulled 3 countries. Our CHIEFS made out well grabbing two: Germany and Mexico.

I have to call the Rams winners of all this getting a full continent (Australia) and the world’s largest population (China). The CHIEFS made out quite well with a couple of very established sets of international fans. I have many German coworkers in my career and they are all at the very least NFL aware, and many quite rabid fans. Also of note: the Chargers are the only AFC West team not on the list at all, and the Cowboys are the only NFC East team that did make it.

My Assumptions

Major notes: all of my comments weigh recent behavior heavily and consider the above agreement a legitimate go to market plan.

The most welcome thing I see is the conference with the extra home game taking the home designation, which is a nice nod to season ticket holders keeping 8 games at all times. I fully expect that trend to continue. Additionally, I see the international game count doubling by the time this agreement ends after the 2026 season. We have 5 new countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China and Spain) needing a game for each assigned team to host. I also expect each team to host a game in each of it’s countries by the end of the agreement and specifically expect the next couple years to have at least this:

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•  2024 (NFC): Rams in China, Vikings and Seahawks in Canada, Panthers in Germany, Bears or 49ers in UK, Cowboys in Mexico

•  2025 (AFC): Dolphins in Spain, 3-4 AFC on list teams in UK, 1-2 AFC teams on list in Mexico

•  2026 (NFC): Rams in Australia, Bears in Spain, 2-3 each on list teams in both Mexico and UK

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This marketing agreement shows a firm blueprint of the 17th game trending toward all being international sooner than later, so get your passports ready. The other trend I see continuing is heavy favor of inter-conference games. This does a couple things. First and most important is keeps the schedule of every team being in every US venue once every 8 years. It also creates more compelling match-ups due to simple history between conference teams. There will be intra-conference, but sparingly. I also expect the NFL to categorically avoid divisional games for internationals… at the very least this year. That probably goes out the window when the international game count pushes 10+.

CHIEFS Projection

We’ve covered all that ground to arrive at my final projection. Who do I think the CHIEFS will play? Let’s answer the venue first. This one’s easy, and the CHIEFS get Munich. Frankfort is the country’s airport hub but Munich is the venue. The choice is a Brady-less .500 Patriots or the Patrick Mahomes led Super Bowl Champion CHIEFS? Please. This is a formality, not a choice. Based on the assumptions above I see 3 logical options in alphabetical order:

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I think it’s the Bears, Allianz Stadium, home of Bayern Munich, who will host these teams within a week of Oktoberfest. This will be the trip of a lifetime, and I plan to make it. That all said it will not surprise me if it ends up being the Bengals.

Final Note

I absolutely love the entire concept of everything I ran through in this one. The concept of the NFL becoming a truly global footprint is exciting and I love covering stuff like this. However, I do expect that I sit in the minority. Furthermore, I understand any and all arguments against all of it. However, the reality is plain and simple to me: the NFL is already a global league. It already is. None of the marketing countries on the list came out of a hat. There are real, dedicated fans of the NFL in all those places. They want live games… and… they should get them.

Oh, and BTW… the NFL likes to make money… and these have, and will, continue to rake.

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Josh Kingsley — ArrowheadOne and Arrowhead Kingdom

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