NFL: The Top Pickers for a QBoF – Who are the top teams to be choosing a QB and how many will pick in the first round? I Can’t say how this will go of course but, I decided to look at the top 7 teams — one is a high maybe — as an example, and at least cover who I think will be teams vying for a franchise quarterback of the future (QBoF) in the first 10 or 15 picks of the draft.
The 2020 NFL Draft Order:
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QBoF or Other Considerations
Example: if the Cincinnati Bengals are not going to pick QB Joe Burrow, they might trade back to get more opportunities, this and next, year, to have more top 100 picks in the draft. Let’s say they prefer QB Justin Herbert from Oregon, and trade back because other teams want him desperately. That is my example of how drafting early in the draft can be Bill Belichick powerful.
The Bengals may be the best example out of the gate, since it appears that they’re a bit enamored with Herbert and they might trade knowing which team is taking what player and how they can gain from such a move.
Meanwhile you are right: Miami picks 5th and they need a QB too. So do the Raiders, and Giants in my view. Keep in mind that although AS/11 will attempt to comeback from his horrible leg break, the Redskins in all likelihood will draft a QB and they pick at #4. That is 3 of the top 5 draft picks that look to go to a QB. Add another one: Detroit might take a QB and that is 4 of the top 5 teams that may draft a QB on Mar 23rd. So to those 4 teams, add the Jaguars and the Chargers who pick respectively 6th and 7th. That could bode extremely well for KC.
I don’t think Gruden is a true believer in his QB and I can see he and Mike Mayock making a QB selection with an eye to the future in Las Vegas. Or perhaps it would be time to move on from Matt Stafford who is not getting a lot of sunshine from the Detroit fan base. I don’t know about the Jaguars but I think they pick a QB. Any of the later teams can work deals to move up.
Top Teams Needing a Franchise QB
My list of teams vying for the QBoF is as follows:
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- Bengals
- Dolphins
- Redskins
The second tier of teams looking for a Franchise QB:
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- Raiders
- Jaguars
- Giants
That’s a hefty list right there for QBs among the first 10 picks who might well be vying for a QB. I am adding in the Colts as my “Also Ran” Choice.
Questions for each Organization
1. Bengals (#1 Pick)
The huge question for them: is Mike Brown really done with Andy Dalton? And/or is Mike Finley really a QBoF? The Bengals have made mistake after mistake, including most of what 2019 turned out to be. Fans were really turned off before the halfway point in the season. They fired their HC (Marvin Lewis) while the 2018 season was in progress. My view is he should have been fired about 5 years before that (16 seasons as HC).
It’s possible that I am mistaken about this but, I think they have to draft Joe Burrow. Keep in mind that the Bengals could have used 2019 preseason to trade problems and costly players and begun a rebuild year at that time. Or maybe they should have bitten the bullet prior to the 2018 season. No matter what, the Bengals have major problems and it’s possible I am mistaken but the Bengals are in a perfect situation to clean house, which should have started in 2018, and that was not enjoined nor was it in 2019. This tells me that the GM is the source of the problem or his staff… but the owner, Mike Brown, will not fire his GM.
I don’t think Mike Brown has been much of a success at all as principal owner of the team. Further, the GM should have been fired as the most obvious result of what happened with the HC, Marvin Lewis who was fired in the midst of the 2018 season.
MIke Brown was voted as the 9th worst owner in 2009 and thought his team had some success in the first part of the decade. Nothing since 2016 has worked. Another problem that the owner is not addressing is the efficacy of the GM and his leadership. The problem arises because Brown would have to fire his own tail end.
Things should have occurred in 2018 before preseason and didn’t. Nor did it in 2019. For example, the Bengals should have traded some of their costly veterans in spring of 2019. Now? They were just plain awful in 2019 and the fans lost interest. Dalton has shown me that his is not a true Franchise QB. This is my own assessment but were I the GM I would be pushing my scouts and staff to address themselves to presenting me with the best choice for QB.
2. Dolphins (#5 Pick)
The Dolphins will draft a QB. They don’t have a candidate and Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a franchise QB but could assist with the newcomer for a season or even two. Truly, there is no choice about this team either. At #5 they can advance their program for well into the future with a QB pick. If they had to? I see them trading up a position or two to ensure their pick comes to roost at South Beach. They have 3 first round picks so, moving about the cabin, should be easy.
4. The Redskins (#2 Pick)
What Washington does will be dependent on AS/11 returning as a starter. I just cannot imagine the Skins gambling that Smith, at age 37, comes back 100$ to form after such a severe injury. I am pretty sure that they will indeed draft a QBoF. Keep in mind that I myself greatly appreciate AS/11 as a top 10 QB (until he broke his leg). If Smith can get back on the field then he can do for the new QB what he did for Pat Mahomes — a solid football intellect and tutor for the game. Since the Redskins pick at #2, they are in a solid position to take a QB. None of the Washington Quarterbacks appear to be the answer: rookie Dwayne Haskins (58.5% completion, 7 TDs-7INTs and 76.1 Rating), Case Keenum or Colt McCoy.
5. Detroit Lions (#3 Pick)
If I had to make a wager, I would say that they will not pick a QB and that would be a mistake most likely. On the other hand, with so many needs and the need for on the field leadership? They can use this position in the draft to trade back. I saw moments of good football from the team in 2019 but that is because I was able to view them several times in 2019. I did like the move to bring in Matt Patricia. I expected there to be a learning curve. At the same time think about the state of the team and the view of the problems from the GM’s point of view.
I have my own view of QB Matt Stafford. He has never shown me the capability of being a franchise Quarterback, at least not ranked in the top Fifteen. It seems to me the Lions got their HC of the future. I think getting to that level of play will take a bunch of changes in personnel. It appears to me that the team has too many players who are playing for the “Loot” and not for the love of the game. Patricia must work closely with Bob Quinn to shuffle the deck and to make the changes that need to be made, bring in players who are leaders and cheerleaders and try to rebuild on the fly. Keep in mind that Stafford is entering his 11th season having had little success and in 2020, he is entering his 11th season.
It appears to me that the Lions need to do some soul searching about their QB and decide if he is they guy they want in place for five or ten years. Since it is obvious that there are player/personnel problems, I expect them to do some major house cleaning no matter what they do about their QB. It would have to be sort of a rebuild on the fly so to speak. Sort of as John Dorsey has pulled off twice in his history as GM at KC and Cleveland. What Quinn needs to do is avoid the financial problems that going as far as Dorsey did in order to preserve the draft and cap capital more in line with what Brett Veach has done for the Chiefs in 2 1/2 years.
How deep should this be for the Lions. will bite the bullet or go the way of the Bengals. As far as I am concerned, it’s time to begin to move on from Stafford and the team needs to address leadership roles on both sides of the ball. There is something rotten in the motor city in more ways than one.
It will be up to Bob Quinn(GM) to figure all the moves for 2020. Unfortunately, he did not have a finger on the pulse of the team in either of the past 2 seasons and said in an interview during 2019 that he didn’t know what was wrong with the Lions. For me? That spells trouble and he won’t make the move from Stafford despite such an awful season in 2019. Stafford has a $32M dead cap hit in 2020 and another $19M in 2021. This one is the most wait and see situation of this article in my view.
6. The Jaguars (#9 Pick)
I can’t really see them drafting a QB after what Gardiner Minshew showed in 2019. However, that is the big question for them isn’t it? I don’t think Kessler is a franchise QB. We’ll see. The one thing that might have them go after a QB is that they won’t know if Minshew is a QBoF based just on 2019’s performance. Besides this, Marone walked a tightrope to keep his job. Marone had also swapped in a new bunch of coaches for 2019 qne now he has added Jay Gruden for the OC role.
Khan, the owner probably entertained a regime change but stuck with HC Marone and GM Dave Caldwell for another year. The question they have is going to be: do they believe Minshew is the real deal or not? I can see them drafting a QBoF now and giving it another year but they also have got to do something with team leadership and persona. They have tough players but lost their way when they lost to the Chiefs this fall — just as they did in 2018. That is why I think Khan truly entertained a leadership swap. Still, Marone set the coaching staff he wanted, largely in 2019. He now has a pretty good OC in Jay Gruden so we will have to see what happens for 2020. This one is really a toss up but I am not going to say they will absolutely go after that special QB unless the apple of their eye is one of the QB’s to be drafted in 2020.
7. Raiders (#12 Pick)
I just see the move to Vegas as the right time for Jon Gruden to get their guy. Despite what Gruden said publicly — which means that I think the organization will wish to replace Derek Carr. If Gruden can figure it out, he will select a QB. I think he would use future draft capital to insure he gets his pick by moving up in the draft.
What we heard during the season from Gruden about his confidence in Carr was coach speak and he absolutely would dearly love to get his own pick at the helm. This is especially true since he believes himself to be an expert with QB’s. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock are two top talent evaluators and appear to work well together. The Raiders will take a QB if at all possible. Last year they had bunch of top 100 picks and this year they’ll have to use some of their draft capital if they make this move because it is very likely that it will cost a bundle to move up to the top in the draft which is the debate going on right now(I imagine).
Of the top 15 teams this group of 7 selected teams seems to be the most likely to give this a solid shot… then there’s the Colts.
Also Ran Indianapolis Colts (#13 Pick)
Chris Ballard GM of the Indianapolis Colts, had a terrible surprise in 2019 when his QBoF, Andrew Luck, suddenly called it quits. With that status affecting the outcome of the season, the Colts should also be in the market for a QBoF unless they truly think Jacoby Brissett (2,942 yards, 60.9%, 18 TDs/8INTs) is the answer. In the right situation with the apple of their eye falling into place in the draft, I am pretty sure they would take that pick. They were a middle of the pack team with Brissett and that category ran across different phases of game.
I have a lot of faith in Chris Ballard and believe he is a top NFL hand. What do they do now that Andrew Luck has departed is a huge question, at least for me. If they think that Brissett can be a game manager QB for now then the team needs to go after players for the offensive line and look at adding tools for Brissett to handle the ball running and passing. As with many teams being built by new GM’s, team depth remains an issue and this shows up most especially with special teams. Ballard is solid and he will work at figuring out the right pieces. I suspect that the Colts are going to maintain status quo with Brissett.
The Top 10 QB’s in the Draft
There will be a ringer that is not in this list. But the list is comprised as pretty good guess at how this will play out and even has a ranking with it. It’s my own, it isn’t far off what the major appraisers have done. NFL, Draftek, CBS and so on. Or you go figure yourself. I think it likely that at least 4 picks will be made in the first round.
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- 1. Joe Burrow – LSU
- 2. Tua Tagovailoa – Alabama
- 3. Justin Herbert – Oregon
- 4. Jalen Hurts – Oklahoma
- 5. Jake Fromm – Georgia
- 6. Jordan Love – Utah St
- 7. Anthony Gordon – Washington St
- 8. Jacob Eason – Washington
- 9. Tyler Huntley – Utah
- 10. Shea Patterson – Michigan
There are others who could be drafted and in all likelihood, one of those will surprise everybody. That’s what makes it fun to look at QB prospects but this time I did it from the “NFL Pickers” frame of reference.
David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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