In Kansas City, everyone knows that the Chiefs have fielded a stellar Linebacker crew. In 2016, the problem with the Linebackers was they did not take the field at 100%. The team has had three talents that could dominate the game and when they arrived at post season play, two of these men were hobbling and one was on the Injured Reserve (Derrick Johnson) at the end of the season.
The Bad News
I examined completely the front seven and must add that the Chiefs lost 2 of 3 starters on the interior defensive line plus NT Dontari Poe did not play up to his standard by a long shot.
This affect of the depletion of the defensive put heavy pressure on the ILBs to pick up the slack and the Chiefs linebackers did not have the ability to stop the run. It didn’t happen. There were too many players on the IR: Bailey, Howard, and DJ. Also, Justin Houston had been out with his injury returned and played as his historic self, but then, the rest of the way was a non-factor. Poe was not the man he had been at NT in years past, Allen Bailey and Jaye Howard were out for the season. Josh Mauga did not make even one start let alone take a snap.
This factor hurt the team a lot when they arrived at post-season with a 12-4 record, division title but a depleted corp: Justin Houston was absolutely not himself. Nor was Tamba Hali. They lost to the infirmary, Derrick Johnson and the Chiefs were forced to depend on youth to achieve front line results.
It didn’t happen. Hali continued to play, although he was hobbling the last 4 or 6 games. Houston had one good game and nothing else.
Dee Ford, despite all the denigration, played above average for the conglomerate 3 seasons with his run defense just above the average line but his pass rush rating approaching to a level between a pro bowl type player and a journeyman (according to PFF and RA).
The numbers of rogue analytics indicates that if the a player had a 74% rating he would an average player and if he had achieved an 80%, he would be playing on par with Justin Houston — who came no where near the 74% rating (except for a single game).
Nor did Hali. When the Chiefs lost to the Titans on that extremely cold day in Kansas City, I spent time watching Hali and he was not able to mount his pass rush. Before I stopped targeting his play during this game, I had seen enough. He pursued a run to the right side of the Titan OT which went far outside to the sideline — and Hali did an rendition of “Hop-a-Long.”
What’s the good news?
The Chiefs have indicated that both Justin Houston and Derrick Johnson would be available to play, or at least start the season. They have not released any indication that either player or both wouldn’t take the field. So, they’re ready to play.
Tamba Hali once again, had knee surgery, apparently a cleanup type effort. There have been no negative or plus statements on this.
Dee Ford has spent two off-seasons, working on his pass rush. The past two seasons and he has verbalized with reporters that he is quite aware of where his career stands and how important this upcoming season is to the Chiefs and to himself. That Ford put the effort in during two sequential off-seasons tells you a lot about his effort and character. Now we need to see the results. Do I think he must suddenly be elite and get 20 sacks? No. But he must make significant progress from his first full season of snaps (2016). One way or the other, Dee Ford may be the player whose progress will tell us the most about how good Kansas City’s defense will be. Much has been made of this effort by Ford to improve his skill and repertory and he is coming off of a season in which he had 10 sacks though all on Houston’s end of the business. Much has been said about the latter also. Many have voiced that he was a failed 1st round pick. Ludicrous I say. With Houston and Hali in front of him, how did such observers think he was going to surpass them? Or what position was he suddenly, with those two icons in front of him, going to play?
At the same time, the Chiefs are fielding a new look front three. Bailey has had no negative news. The Chiefs added Ben Logan at NT. DE Chris Jones, who broke out in his rookie season debut met the challenge and we should see a greatly improve front three in 2017 with depth.
2016 performance – Defense Overall
What stands out about the defense overall, is that their numbers put them in an elite group, finishing the season with an elite Status (according to PFF). They had a 0.63 Yards per Coverage Snaps (see Chart, PFF). The linebackers for the Chiefs were among the tops in the NFL in pass defense (yards allowed per snap) despite all that happened.
Where are we now?
From my own viewpoint, the Chiefs have an outstanding question and this is regarding Tamba Hali: How much can he contribute? How many top of the Ritz snaps and how many will be considered a mere average, or below? If Hali is back to his “old self,” then we will know how effective the OLBs for the Chiefs will be. Tamba Hali did not have an injury for repair but he did require surgery. He will be ready. If there is any question, it is “How much does Hali have in the tank?”. At my age it seems strange to discuss an “old timer” as being a man in his mid thirties. If Hali is able to take snaps for 1/2 of what might be regarded as a full season’s worth, the Chiefs linebacker corp will be a force to contend with. Of course that presumes he can still do his “Hali Thing.”
Derrick Johnson’s second Achilles injury would likely have wiped out a complete career 20 years ago. This is his second. In February, he assessed his status saying: “It’s going well…. I just found my old phone that had all my rehab dates in it, and I’m looking at the date like, ‘Man, I was doing this at four months, this at five months.” He also observed that he new how to recover from this and that “….I’m just getting that motivation.”
Since then D.J. has remarked that he would be ready by the time the Chiefs got to training camp. I think we’ll wait and see on that but It appears that he is going to be ready to open the season in the middle of the Chiefs defense.
Houston came back too soon in 2016 and there is not much to say that he will be anything but Justin Houston. Indeed, he should play this season with a vengeful nature. If that happens, the inside (below) will be where the The way that player to roster outlook is: Houston, Hali, Ford and Zombo for OLBs.
Justin Houston said, “I feel great now. Last year I couldn’t even run at this time so it’s night and day difference. I feel great. To be able to just get up and go without even thinking about it” as commented to B.J. Kissel of Chiefs.com. When Derrick Johnson was questioned regarding his return: “I feel Great” which he has said over and over again… that he would be ready to play. In another interview, Houston echoed his sentiments which were similar to the remarks he made to B.J. Kissel. “I feel great now. Last year I couldn’t even run at this time so it’s night and day difference. I feel great. To be able to just get up and go without even thinking about it.”
Ramik Wilson came the long way around barn, became lackadaisical, was released, brought back to the Taxi squad, was promoted to the 53 man roster and then made his bones playing inside. Of all our youth movement linebackers, Ramik Wilson should be ready to build his season with the experience brick necessary to start in side. In 2016’s eleven games, he had 76 tackles. Wilson has had a hot fire burning as well, which shows signs of coming to be a play-maker. In many ways, his play at the very end of the 2016 season had begun to solidify as an NFL Linebacker. His play inside is crucially important for Kansas City. They need Ramik Wilson to take a huge step forward to complete the puzzle. One indication that the Chiefs are confident in Wilson is the fact that they did not pursue an inside linebacker early in the draft. Well, that must be a factor where the observer takes into account that the draft turned out to be a draft where the Chiefs went after their QBOTF instead.
From what I am able to discern, the Chiefs will be in good shape, contingent upon the health of two players: Justin Houston and the captain of the defense, Derrick Johnson. Yes, this is an “IF.” However, we have heard nothing that would make us dispel a positive outlook.
There are other players involved here; DJ Alexander, for example, and Terrance Smith. I think both will make the roster. Justin March-Leonard would be another possibility. My own view is not couched on the negative, but the positive. When the Chiefs started up 4 seasons ago, one glaring problem was the ability of the players who provide depth to their talent pool. I no longer have this view.
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