Notice Is Served! The Chiefs Aerial Offense Will Be a Potent Force In 2022

Notice Is Served! The Chiefs Aerial Offense Will Be a Potent Force In 2022

David Bell

.

The Kansas City Chiefs aerial attack is potent, fast, hard-hitting, and will be a nearly unstoppable force in 2022! Sure, other teams made moves, but so did the Chiefs. Yes, there will be a learning curve for all of the teams, but we have Patrick Mahomes, and he began working with his receivers in Texas before OTA’s began. I believe that this season the aerial game is going to be unique.

Thus far, during pre-season and training camp, I have dedicated a lot of time to watching what play videos were available, listening to and watching the pressers from HC Andy Reid and others. Reid has iterated on several occasions how pleased he is to see the tenacious effort the players in camp are expending. This effort is crucial to the next phase of Training Camp: they put the pads on this week. The first week in pads will not begin with heavy-hitting contact, to start with, but then this will explode into a full-fledged training camp, and we will see the results quickly from that point on.

.

.

There has been a lot of change in player personnel since 2019 – only 15 players remain from that roster. In the case of the Mahomes-led offense, a massive shift is also occurring. Gone are Tyreek Hill, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle. Replacing Robinson and Pringle was not a complex problem to solve. The Chiefs added JuJu Smith_Schuster and then drafted Skyy Moore.

.

They also added a second deep threat WR from Green Bay: Marques Valdes-Scantling. Returning is Mecole Hardman, whose speed was close to that of Ty Hill.

.

.

There is no one in the NFL that can replace Tyreek Hill. That’s just the case we fans will have to accept. At the same time, we should welcome the newcomers with great enthusiasm. It’s going to be tough to get a WR who can get a 1,000-yard season. If these three accomplished that, it would be “goodness” personified. Then there is Skyy Moore. He is looking better and better as camp goes on.

.

.

The WR aerial attack in 2021 depended extensively on Tyreek Hill. The result was that Defensive Coordinators and Secondary coaches figured out a way to reduce the effectiveness of the dependence on a single WR to slow down the Chief’s offense and reduce its effectiveness. This defense succeeded even with TE Travis Kelce on the field and numerous targets to WRs 2-through-5. Unfortunately, I think there has been a lot of hoopla, much of it generated by Hill as he departed the Chiefs for the Dolphins. I only regret that the Chiefs lost one of the most talented WRs in the NFL, who will one day be in the Hall of Fame. At the same time, I applaud Brett Veach’s additions to the receiving corps and its showing up in training camp.

.

Let’s take a Deeper Look

First things first: the Chiefs have QB Patrick Mahomes. He was tutored for his first year under a top-notch QB: Alex Smith. In 2018, teams did not know what to expect from Mahomes or the weapons — WRs — arrayed against their opponents. Pointing out that Tyreek Hill was breaking out as a top receiver in the NFL is part of the mystique of 2018. So true. Patrick Mahomes had the soon-to-be-best Tight End in the business: Travis Kelce. Kelce began a string of 1,000-yard seasons in 2016.

.

.

Tyreek Hill was drafted in 2016. After his first two seasons, Hill strung together 4 of 5 seasons with 1,000 yards or more. Oddly enough, the anomaly to that 5-year string was a season where he only played in 12 games. Yet, Hill still had 860 yards receiving. The Year? The season that the Chiefs won Super Bowl. What is the concern here? There is none except to state that when the 2022 Chiefs take the field, they will have to replace the targets, receptions, yards, and TDs, that Hill brought to the table.

Who were the other Chiefs’ WRs that had anything close to a 1000-yard season across that period? None.

In 2018, the Chiefs began a consecutive run of seasons in which they played in the AFC Championship game. That year, if you recall, the Chiefs lost to the heroics of the Tom Brady-led Patriots. In that Championship game, the Chiefs had probably locked up a victory on a Charvarius Ward INT. But the play was called back, and the Interception nullified due to DE Dee Ford lining up off-sides. Brady and Pats tied the game and won it in overtime with Mahomes never touching the ball.

From 2019 thru 2021, the Chiefs played in the AFC Championship game, won the Superbowl, and lost one, with losses also in the intervening games in the AFC Championship.

As another Chief’s observer observed:

.

.

The Chiefs’ floor since 2018 is to play in the AFC Championship, win, lose or draw. They have won six consecutive AFC West Division Championships too. Yet, like usual, the pundits and analysts are predicting the Chiefs to finish out of the running in 2022. So figure that one and write an article.

The way I see it, like Trey Smith in 2021 and possibly Darian Kinnard in 2022, who indicate they have a chip on their shoulder, the Chiefs team left business undone in 2021. As a result, they will enter 2022 with a 2×8 on their collective shoulder.

Gary McKenzie, writing for NFL 33, observed the following fact, which illustrates my opening remarks. Make a special note about what I stated was a fact for 2018 – opposing teams did not know what to expect from the Chief’s offense. McKenzie said: “Defenses don’t know exactly what to expect from this new group of weapons the Chiefs have at their disposal.“

When you think about that single factor, then look at the next three seasons, you can see my point. You can also visualize that 2022 is similar to what occurred in the 2018 season – other teams will not know what to expect from the Chiefs’ offense. Mahomes has matured and developed his skill. Yet, we watched it in the flow of the season in 2021, a season that he could not work with his receiving crew as he did in Texas this past spring. The reason for that was recovery and rehab from an injury in 2020, which held him back.

Now, Mahomes will have multiple targets on the field that are experienced, fast, young and hungry: Mecole Hardman wants to prove his case, JuJu Smith-Schuster wants to establish his dominance in the aerial game — this time with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has something to prove also – that he can be a consistent receiver at multiple levels of the route tree. He comes to Eric BIeniemy’s offense from the Packers. Viewing the truth about Rodgers and not targeting Valdes-Scantling is also part of the overall Picture: Aaron Rodgers targeted Davante Adams in 1 of 3 passing attempts.

Then, Brett Veach drafted Skyy Moore. As we have seen in training camp, Moore has excellent hands, is fast, and runs clean routes. Add in Travis Kelce and the promise that Fortson brings to the table (his quad injury won’t hold him back), plus running backs as receivers.

Everything I see from Training Camp educates me that Mahomes will have the most talented WR corps in the history of the Chiefs. Sure, there is going to be a learning curve. However, the observers, pundits, and analysts ignore that other teams have been playing catch-up to the Chiefs since 2018. So Brett Veach threw a “Change-up” into the mix. Surprise, Surprise!

I believe the Chiefs will present a “New-Look Offense” and spring that on the whole NFL. We all witnessed the great numbers of 2018. We know opposing DCs used the two-high approach to limiting the deep ball, for which Tyreek Hill was the ultimate threat. When the deep threat was nullified by opposing secondaries, the Chiefs lost games that they should have won. Some of the problems with the offense lie squarely on the shoulders of OC Eric Bieniemy and HC Andy Reid. Still, the Chiefs won their way to another AFC Championship game, only to lose to the Bengal in overtime. Like 2018, Mahomes did not touch the ball in OT, and no comeback was possible. Like, in 2018, the opposing defenses will not be able to assume the deep target or any target because Mahomes passes will now be spread among the WRs in any given play. Therefore, a two-high secondary effort won’t work.

A Good Weather Forecast – for 2022

It will go something like this:

• Mahomes passes for 5,500 yards and 56 TDs with significantly more snaps under Center, using the play-action pass far more significantly (don’t subtract the RPO effect or PMII making things happen when a play breaks down
• Travis Kelce catches 99 passes for 1,000+ yards and 8 TDs
• Mecole Hardman – 900 yards receiving and 6 TDs – becomes the #1 Over-the-top WR for PMII
• JuJu Smith-Schuster – 900 yards, 7 TDs
• Marquez Valdez-Scantling – 860 yards, 6 TDs
• Skyy Moore emerges as a top NFL receiver – 600 yards, 4 TDs
• Jody Fortson emerges as the #2 TE and becomes a frequent Mahomes target
• Fortson, JuJu, and Moore emerge as a triumvirate threat in the Red Zone
• The OL improves in pass protection and becomes masters of the steam-roller blocking on the ground

Oh: I did not cover Fortson Expectations, did I?

• Jody Fortson 5 TDs, 450 yards.
• The RB group plays well. As a group, they gut it out on the ground with 3 RBs and a FB, all of whom contributed to the aerial attack.
• The Chiefs finally got Brown in camp the week the pads went on. They are solid left to right, no matter who the starter is at ROT.
• Chiefs record with a very tough schedule? 13-4, but if all goes right? 14-3.

.

Bottom Line?

The Chiefs Offense in 2022 is going to be awesome. Now I can get back to what will happen with the defense. It is a fact that I envision an offense that is going to be nearly impossible to stop.

What say you?

.

David Bell — ArrowheadOne

.