Notice is Served! The Chief’s Defensive Line Will Come Motivated, and Hungry — a Force in 2022 With Which to be Reckoned

Notice is Served! The Chief’s Defensive Line Will Come Motivated, and Hungry — a Force in 2022 With Which to be Reckoned

David Bell

On Monday, Laddie Morse published an article worthy of a re-read: “How good can the Chiefs DL Be.” Read that article here: https://arrowheadone.com/camp-report-how-good-can-the-chiefs-dl-be/

I want to focus on QB Pressures, QB Hurries, Hits, and Sacks for a brief moment. Laddie and I had both lobbied for bringing back Mel Ingram. It didn’t happen. Essentially, I will use the most visible stat estimating DL effectiveness vs. the pass: Sacks.

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A View of Force – The Front Four

Carlos Dunlap

What happened is the Chiefs signed Carlos Dunlap, a force to be reckoned with on his own accord. Moreover, Carlos is a 6’6″-280 lbs. Edge Rusher with long arms. Which fits what I know that DC Steve Spagnuolo posits as the ideal type size for a powerful DE, and he said so in a presser on Friday observing that,

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“… I did have a chance to visit with him (last night). It was a good chat. I’m always happy to add big, long guys with experience in the league.”

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From what I know of DL Coach Joe Cullen, he is equally pleased.

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Adding Dunlap should give the Chiefs a conservative estimated sack total of about 9 sacks and 6 batted passes throughout the 2022 Season. Add in QB hurries and hits along with the Sack estimate, and Dunlap adds significantly to the “pressure” dimension of the Front Four assessment that is valid.

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Frank Clark

Clark came into camp a different person –> “Resurgent and Rededicated.” If you have reviewed the presser where he answered questions in depth and interacted with the press, you could see that Clark was a different man (from past seasons). Clark will play a lot leaner in 2022, and his body appears to be in good shape. He cut out alcohol and changed his diet, which seems to be a very beneficial off-season for the DE. Unfortunately, Clark’s last two seasons have been much poorer in spirit and performance, which he observed in his presser last Friday by noting his brutally honest talk with HC Andy Reid.

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Getting the Clark we all expected — despite his post-season numbers from 2019 — is going to be a key factor for the 2022 defense. I am not estimating miracles with either Dunlap or Clark. However, I think we can expect a sack total that’s improved but conservative estimate of 9 sacks with the new and enhanced version of Clark. Add in QB pressures and hits to these numbers.

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George Karlaftis

You have to love the newcomer from Purdue. He is a complete, fit personality and character wise, for the Chiefs persona. He plays with near abandon with a motor that won’t quit. I can’t wait to see him pads in Training Camp at St. Joe and then on the grass in the mix of DEs in games of the 2022 season. Karlaftis is going to succeed mightily in 2022. His drive to excel will stand him well — and Spags will not have to break him in with “starter level snaps” out of the gate. That fact will allow Joe Cullen & Co. to break the younger player into his role at a measured pace with the teaching effort conducted stringently in the process.

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Karlaftis is not called, the “Greek Freak” for nothing. He will push as hard as possible to be an opening day starter. That might happen because using Dunlap on pass-rushing downs is the likely manner in which Carlos is deployed. Dunlap is 33. Though he is probably capable of being a three-down starter, the best use of his skills is getting pressure on the opposing QB. My view of the pair would mean that George Karlaftis will rotate with Dunlap on edge (while DE Mike Danna rotates with Frank Clark on the other side). I have anticipation that I think is valid: Dunlap on the edge and Karlaftis on the inside on passing downs. Who knows how effective that type of front would be with Jones, and Clark on the opposite side? One of our readers thought that Cullen and Spags might also use Dunlap inside in such situations.

Estimating George Karlaftis’ contribution to the pass rush is tricky since he is a rookie. However, staying on the conservative side, I think 5 sacks is about the right level of expectation.

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Kaindoh, Herring, and Danna

If I hazard a guess, Josh Kaindoh and Malik Herring will emerge in competition for a 53-man roster role as camp unfolds and progresses. Mike Danna is a proven commodity, but has exhibited no avarice for rushing the passer… thus far. Herring’s signing may be leaning on the Georgia Bulldog heritage he possesses. His potential draft status was ruined when Malik suffered a knee injury at a Senior Bowl practice. GM Brett Veach was then able to sign him to the team and place him on the I/R for 2021. Kaindoh did get snaps in 2021, but was injured himself and missed most of the 2021 season. Josh was drafted in the 4th round of the 2021 draft, Mike Danna was drafted in round 5 of 2020, and as noted, Malik Herring was a UDFA signing.

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Kaindoh and Herring were both viewed as rotational DL prospects by Lance Zierlein. I cannot anticipate who will be the 5th player for the DE role now. We need to see them in the competition at camp. Let’s give these players (whoever among them makes the roster) an estimated 3 sacks.

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The Interior Defensive Line

Chris Jones

I can’t say enough about CJ. I had him as a top draft prospect when he broke into the NFL, and he has proven the point. In 2021, Stone Cold Jones needed one more sack to make his contract incentive kick in. Instead, he had 9 Sacks and 5 pass defenses. Here’s one of CJ’s tipped passes vs the Cowboys:

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Estimated numbers for 2022? I will stay conservative and estimate 9 sacks, even though he will be playing with a rejuvenated Frank Clark.

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Derrick Nnadi

Derrick is a solid Defensive Tackle, specifically vs. the run. What do I anticipate for his sack total in 2022? I think he will fulfill his import to the defense by making a more functional pass rush next to Jones. Again, the following estimate is conservative, but with the view of the overall improvement to crucial personnel with Carlos Dunlap on the field, Derrick Nnadi’s sack total will improve from 3 in 2021 to at least 5 sacks in 2022.

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What If My Projections Come to Fruition?

Who knows what will happen, but my anticipation of the possible success in increasing the Chiefs Sack total in 2022 is at least reasonable. From the estimates above, the total is 37. The Chiefs will be far closer to the top 10 in 2022. My assessment does not include some players adding a sack or two and doesn’t anticipate Safety/Cornerback sacks, or those made by linebackers such as Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal. It is possible that the sack totals could be amended upwards by 10 with such contributions. Such an accomplishment would work wonders in affecting opposing QBs’ aerial attack success.

This effort focused on the players I think will play the most significant roles in 2022. Therefore, I did not include Cortez Broughton, Tershawn Wharton, Austin Edwards, Khalen Saunders, Kehinde Oginni Hassan, or Taylor Stallworth. Any one of these men could emerge as a significant contributor in 2022. Tershawn Wharton had two sacks in each of the last two seasons. Here’s one:

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The Chiefs finished with 31 sacks in 2021 — 29th in the league. — while the Steelers recorded the most with 55. My estimate puts the Chiefs near the top of the rankings, with more than 47 sacks (add in 10 to the 37 I totaled from LBs and the Secondary) anticipated for 2022. Watching the defense succeed quickly against our opponents is going to be the key to the season. A quick start by the offense putting up points and the defense playing good football out of the gate will make the Chiefs a tough out. I chose very conservative values in each player’s values for those I provided an estimate. The results could exceed that number, and if the aerial defense does as well, as I anticipate, I’d suggest the total sacks will be in the realm of 50 total. That would be great!

Do you think the above construct and estimate totals are far fetched? Post back a reply and detail why you believe what you do.

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David Bell – ArrowheadOne

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