NSLU: A Aggregate View of the Chiefs Offense

NSLU: An Aggregate View

Of the Chiefs Offense

David Bell

If you were watching what was going on in other games last night (Thursday), you saw two things that really stood out: Mitch Trubisky was HOT and DeShone Kizer, in Cleveland’s Orange and Brown Scrimmage, had a moderately successful outing. Some called it disappointing, others had a view that for his first shot at it in a full court scrimmage, was as I outlined (the Browns play the Saints on Monday). Comparatively speaking, I thought Patrick Mahomes II showed he can play football in the NFL. He had a TD down short and a long one called back on a penalty. I am comfortable with him for the future QB.

What did this do for me? It whetted my appetite to see Patrick Mahomes II under center. Trubisky was 8 for 25, 166 yards and 1 TD, no INTs. He ran the “2” minute drill to a perfection. He was calm in the pocket, and broke out when he had to do so. I liked what I saw. Kizer wasn’t as brilliant when compared to Trubisky but he was solid at least for the Browns in their tradition scrimmage and went 7-for-14 for 46 yards with no TDs.

So…. Hmm. I think you can see why. In KC, the Chiefs will have a sequence of QBs, with Alex Smith for probably 2 positions, followed by Bray and Mahomes—the latter will get a lot more time in the second half. The Chief’s 4^th QB would be last.

The Browns are talking about for their next game but Jackson, the HC indicated he likely would keep their rotation the same for the next game against the Saints In Chicago, Glennon had a $18m($45m over 3 years) vastly underwhelming performance. Huh. Big pick 6 for a 52 yard TD. In Chicago, they are already calling for Trubisky to start. Hmm.

Aggregate View of the Chiefs Offense

Quarterback: I am going to state this going into the 2018 season: Alex Smith is the quarterback. Period. End of a non-Story.

Patrick Mahomes will have to move up the ladder — he is starting out 3^rd with  Tyler Bray in front of him but I think by the end of pre-season he will emerge as the #2. And that is how it should be – he is the heir apparent and needs all the time with Al Smith in games, in practice, and one on one in discussions and talks. That’s just how I see it. Joel Stave is #4. Do not discount Stave. He ran the U of Wisconsin team with a great deal of success and was picked up by Dorsey who is familiar with that country and it’s players.

Thus far in preseason, we have heard a lot about PM2 and also AS/11. Alex has been lighting it up with his WRs but especially Tyreek Hill. Both have performed admirably and Laddie has commented about this in his Training Camp Daily’s.

Receivers Ain’t Da Problem (How they could or should fit)

I have come away from Training Camp though, perplexed at the Depth Chart. Here we have seen Hill performing as your top wide out. Breaking it down, I will use this format and I believe fully and completely that Tyreek Hill will excel at this type of position in Reid’s West Coast variation.

Tyreek Hill: Hill is the “X” receiver for the Chiefs. He is the go-to guy who has the speed to break down and break out as the split end (on the line of scrimmage, does not go in motion), and must be able to beat press man coverage and go deep at the same time, using his moves to route inside or out as well.

Matt Millen described the X receiver as the Gazelle: fleeing a cheetah in a life and death contest. I like that view very much. So now you tell me? Does Hill fit that role? My answer is yes. Will we miss the experience of JMac? Absolutely.

Sidebar: [When I discus the internal conflicts that resulted in Dorsey’s firing, I attribute part of the issue as lying in JMac’s departure and how it occurred. It wasn’t pretty. I don’t believe that Andy Reid was separate from what happened because I believe Andy’s relationship with JMac was very close and he wanted him to get to KC in the first place (and that itself cost the Chiefs in the preceding draft). The handling of Charles was similar and we know a bit about Berry’s sudden down turn in his attitude due to JD. Let’s call this, internecine – destructive to both sides in a conflict – and leave it there for other articles and discussions.]

However, back on topic, there is surely a time when Hill would assume this role, and It’s too bad it wasn’t last season but, we have some of the answers in the forefront of explanations (injury, personal life tragedy…) and now, JMac is gone. Do I think that is the only role Hill will assume? No, and that is due to the KC version of the West Coast. Everyone who has been around ArrowheadOne from last year, knows I was highly critical of Andy Reid and Co. and how they used Hill. As a WR though, despite the above drawbacks and really not getting enough snaps games 1-6, Hill gave us numbers that were admirable.

Hill’s profile fits this view: speed to get down the sideline and beat coverage as well as having the quickness to beat a CB who is going to bump and run him — or just plain attempt to mirror him — which is why Hill must be able to fight that tough first contact and beat a mirror press defender.  Let’s consider what else might happen and if I am looking for shallow crosses. In that case, the CB will likely hand him off to the zone coverage underneath. From what I saw in 2016, Hill won’t have a problem finding a hole in the zone to receive the ball. In deeper cross routes, I see Hill excelling the same as he will on deep routes started up field along the sideline. On a deep pattern he is going to be one-on-one against the defending corner. The opponents center-fielder will likely be favored to cover deep on Hill – he is that fast.

Chris Conley: If Hill is the X-man, then the Z-man (Flanker) is going to line up off the line-of-scrimmage (LoS). He can be put in motion, his point of attack can be anywhere on the field, tight to the tackle, or all the way out to the sideline. I see this man as being Chris Conley.

First off, he is off the line of scrimmage to ensure the Tight End is eligible. His position is opposite the other wideout most of the time. This receiver again, has to have The same attributes as the X receiver in that he is going straight up against a cornerback so he must be able to fight through press man coverage and run tight routes against man coverage or into and through a zone. He too must have speed and acceleration to beat the CB, then have the timing and consistency to go in motion.

I have watched Chris Conley game after game and believe he was not targeted nearly enough in 2016. Last season I commented on his play in two games in one it was a game where AS11 was forced out of the pocket to avoid a sack. The field was then favoring the defense and a thrown away ball, but Conley broke off his route, found a hole and too two passes for a first down. Chris Conley has the ability to climb the ladder for a contested pass and the strength to make such catches in traffic. For me? There is no question that Conley will fulfill this role.

Demarcus Robinson, The best Y-Man?: Who is the Y-man? That is the question. Wilson will be favored when such a play is called. I don’t have it this way myself because I have Robinson as the Chiefs Y receiver and I can’t see Wilson as being a better man to put on the field with Hill and Conley.

Caveat: In KC, like Seattle, and like Green Bay (if they could keep their wideouts healthy), a platoon of several would be used. In KC, it’s wilder than that due to the hybrid West Coast. Robinson has had a year, he has the speed, length and hands for the role much more than Wilson who would beat him with sheer one-on-one speed but I have seen enough of Wilson to take Robinson’s length and hands any day of the week. Robinson also is the type who can go up in traffic for a contested ball then give you yards-after-catch (YAC).

Albert Wilson: This is a receiver who works best in the slot, the Y-Receiver. I have watched Wilson play up to his high level and his ability is limited due size and physicality. He has speed but cannot beat the opposition up top or in any contested ball situation. For me, this makes Wilson at best, the #4 Receiver and I have other receivers I would prefer to move up and in as the next man since Wilson has likely reached his apex and won’t go farther. I add Albert as the 4^th man but I know that Reid and Co. will make him the top Y, much to my chagrin.

Platoon of Wideouts otherwise: This is difficult because we haven’t seen enough to really know. The Chiefs drafted Jehu Chesson so he will be on the roster. The man that has been performing truly as an eye-opening talent is Seantavius Jones. I think it is going to be very difficult for him to make the 53 man roster but if he flashes in each preseason game, that will change, abruptly. DeAnthony Thomas would fit here and I have him on the roster for Special Teams so I will fit him there instead of here.  That’s far enough. There are other men on the roster giving it a shot but until they move into my “lens”….  

Add in the Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce is the best TE in the business. He offers much more in versatility from the position than anyone, and that ranks him above Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots, in my estimation. Of course the Patriots fluff crowd not only think Gronkowski is the best of the NFL but that he walks on water too. But let’s be honest: Kelce is faster, runs routes as a WR and has the same characteristics of RG. I take Kelce… minus any thrown flags at refs.

If I look at the facts about the Pats and RG, along with Bennett, it seems obvious that the Pats have a good 1-2 punch at TE: Martellus Bennett as their #2. I know their quest is to find their #3 man. That gives them some power in the blocking scheme and a total offensive threat in Gronkowski. This doesn’t mean that I do not appreciate what the man does and other TEs in the NFL. I would not exchange Kelce for any of them. I do wish he would “Grow up a bit”.

The Wait for it Part: (groans, curse words and so on)

The real question here is, who will be the #2 and #3 tight ends? I think Demetrius Harris and Gavin Escobar will fill those roles. They might be reversed or interchangeable. None of these three is a traditional tough guy TE. I wish we had one. All three have significant height and weight but are not the guys you would say to the next guy on the stand, it’s a good think this or that TE can block well – because none of these three men fit that description. If they carry 4 Tight Ends, it’s likely to be Ross Travis.

Don’t Downplay the Run Game

We all know what happened the past two seasons with Jamaal Charles. Since his 2015 injury, he wasn’t a factor. Step in Spencer Ware, who in combo with Charcandrick West fit nicely in 2015. Not, great mind you, but more than sufficient. In 2016? Eh, Not so much. The Chiefs drafted Kareem Hunt and Hunt will be the #2 or #1 RB before the first half of the season ends. He and Ware did well to counter the loss of Charles. In 2016? Not so much. Most importantly, West wasn’t the player he was in 2015 and Ware wore down with the load. Enter C.J. Spiller! From what I have seen on film, he is back. From everything I have heard and what I have seen on video, rookie Kareem Hunt is everything the Chiefs could look for in an RB. I guess you could add DAT or even Hill here but I don’t think DAT would be anything but a scat play or two and I hope Hill doesn’t do anything but an end around type play.

The Offensive Line

This has been covered separately but, I am pretty confident that the offensive line will be more effective than in 2016. Yes, they have to solve the LG position. I look at it this way: for LG you have Bryan Witzmann who appears to be penciled in as the starter, Zach Fulton who started at Guard his rookie season, and Parker Ehinger will be back, we just don’t know when. Jah Reid can play Guard as well, so it is covered until Ehinger returns. Or Witzmann plays lights-out, or, failing that Fulton, who is the least mobile of our linemen but along with the others the line is at least going to be “efficient”. The rest of the starters are set: LT- Eric Fisher, OC- Mitch Morse, LG- LD-T and RT- Mitch Schwartz. Others fighting for a roster spot? Andrew  Tiller, Mike Person, Damien Mama, and others. I would guess that with Ehinger out and needing rehab, they might suit him to the IR for 6 weeks. We will see. That would give the Chiefs time to really look at some of these other men. Reid, Fulton and Person are really known factors here. Tiller has 2 years NFL time. Mama is the guy to look at to see if he can fit to the NFL.

Summary of the Offense

It is not within my framework to see that the glass is half empty. Dealing with the Chiefs? Most of the years since the YAD* (see below) I view it as a half empty glass or worse. Now? I know the Chiefs have a deep roster and that is crucially important in a 16 game season. Having men who can play multiple positions is also an important need. Much of what the Chiefs have on this side of the ball is being unveiled in 2017.

 Wait for it?

*Years After Dawson

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