NSLU Dispatch: Speculative Bits and Pieces

It’s Sunday. Oh Heavens: No NFL Football except reruns. I am going to do my best to get through the day, not watching re-runs of football games or men running around in their underwear! Maybe I’ll achieve some brevity at the same time. Maybe. Take these things into account. I am waiting on the next Brett Veach move – surely something is going on. Unfortunately we only get hints, rumors and can analyze what is said by those who work out of Arrowhead One, KC, MO.

Rumor Control Central

Rumor 1: Danny Amendola- WR F/A of the Pats is apparently interested in KC and Albert Breer may have his ear to the ground. On the other hand, he doesn’t state that this is happening. He speculates. Breer isn’t out there spreading false rumors to get “press.” Breer stated:

“…Slot receivers are tough to value. Aging slot receivers have a tough time getting paid. But my sense is that Danny Amendola’s going into a pretty decent market. I’d keep an eye on Kansas City, a team that can compete now and could use another security blanket for its new starter, and Amendola’s fellow ex-Texas Tech Red Raider Patrick Mahomes…”

Now this is truly a “Rumor” and I have no factual supporting evidence that such is the case. However, if I were to speculate about a signing of an important slot receiver option, this is a good one. Especially if Bert Wilson is departing. I will leave this one where it is.

Rumor 2: A better Rumor is Muhammed Wilkerson- NFL Jet’s released defensive lineman and Free Agent, headed from Green Bay to KC for an interview. He is then headed for NOLA. To this point, 4 PM Saturday, 3.10.18, I have heard no reports out of the Kingdom or the player.

This is worthy of observation, so let me start with positional need for the Chiefs. Brett Veach has made necessary moves to strengthen the Roster and although Wilkerson is going to be 29 in 2018’s season, apparently there is joint interest. Wilkerson would bring a bookend for Chris Jones and greatly strengthen the front three. There are three basic problems which Brett Veach is going to face: 1. The age factor – 2: the money — 3. The need to fill the Nose Tackle position which will require another free agent signing.  It may be no agreement occurred. Or, Wilkerson is thinking on any offer, had it been tendered. Or it could be that no offer was forthcoming.

This is a wait and see type situation but Adam Schefter posted on Wilkerson’s visit to KC as well.

If you believe that a 3-4 DE and NT are weak points for the starting roster, perhaps a short term 2-year deal can be arranged. I am not sold any longer, that Allen Bailey is a solution. I do think that the Defensive front line has fairly good depth if the two starting positions are upgraded.

This type of Free Agent Move Dovetails Veach’s Draft

Should Veach have arrived at a satisfactory result, he is very likely working to bring in a Nose Tackle. Meanwhile, his draft board shifts, if you accept that he is able to solve the problem of obtaining a 3-4 DE and NT at the same time. Such a result though, would allow Veach to focus his draft board with more emphasis on the remaining areas of concern.

Think about the exposures on defense, the Chiefs weak point the past two seasons then you will have made a list of positional needs and that would be extended to the building of Veach’s draft board. I believe the specific areas of need are: FS, NT, DE, ILB, OLB and CB, no order intended. I do not think many will deny that these exposures exist and that the offensive needs trail these in import. Filling the needs here is going to be extremely tough for Veach to resolve in 2018. I have written about this in prior articles but if they leave out an ILB, Veach can still solve or patch up the remaining positions by the draft and by free agency.

In the draft, I have observed that the OLB position is likely not going to yield a starting-level player at #54 in the draft. I have even operated on the assumption that Veach will have resolved the NT position in Free Agency and maybe the DE position as well. It may be that a top ILB is still available and I have played mocks that way – but the top 3 or 4 players have already been selected, including my preference (Leighton Vander Esch). I have my favorite picks for ILB but we know with certainty that DJ is gone. We know that our OLB position is a weak point as well. Why? Because Ford has not aggressively taken over the position, Kpassagnon remains an unknown factor, and Hali should retire, he is done – stick a fork in him.

Note: Frank Zombo is a depth player, not a starter. He is 30 this year as well though important for spot snaps at OLB and Special Teams—not expensive either.

Since the Chiefs have released Free Safety Ron Parker, there’s a very high need at the Safety position. When the Chiefs traded Alex Smith, they obtained a top corner in Kendall Fuller and then signed David Amerson who could be a final piece of the puzzle. Don’t presume that Steven Nelson isn’t an important piece of the secondary puzzle, he is, and his talent is integral. At the same time, I remain convinced that resolving the secondary weakness must be resolved and that Veach needs to sign at least one starting quality CB.

Meanwhile, DE Allen Bailey isn’t getting it done opposite Jones which is why I am hoping that Veach pulls the trigger on a Free Agent DE and NT. We’ll see. That Bailey appears to be part of the weakness of the front three is the reason that the Wilkerson visit appears to have import. Adding to this idea, I have speculated that Veach could release Bailey and spend about $2M more putting Bennie Logan opposite Chris Jones.

Always Mocking it Up

Let me give you an example of what might be going on in the background. Veach is working to fill to the weak points on the defensive side of the ball. Wilkerson would give the Chiefs a really decent player for the front 3—Bailey can thus be released. Should Veach make a deal with one of the available Free Agent Nose tackles such as Dontari Poe, this would give Veach the ability to work on other areas.

The remaining needs for defense in this speculation? ILB, OLB, FS, CB. Using my “given” that the OLB position is likely not soluble in the draft of 2018, but that we need starter players especially at FS and ILB, I made those two positions the priority of the drafts. Of course, the assumptions that a starter quality player is available to the Chiefs in their round 2 and 3rd round picks, but here are some examples. In a couple of these, I turned to the primary offense needs when my targeted picks from my draft board were not available.

This first mock (with the 7th round included, and one round 6 pick traded away as well as the 5th round pick) obtains a starting quality FS, ILB, DT and even gets Tim Settle. Here with BJ Hill included, I have strengthened the trench players. I think both Settle and Hill would end up being a factor at least by midway through 2018, but maybe I am dreaming. Hence, the two F/A signings make this a completely logical draft.

I particularly think the first example is exactly what is needed in the draft, sans any selection geared to offense needs(mine are OG, TE). I am using Using first-pick:

Round 2 Pick 22: Reid, Justin, FS, Stanford (A-)
Round 3 Pick 14: Jewell, Josey, ILB, Iowa (A+)
Round 3 Pick 22: Settle, Tim, DT, Virginia Tech (A+)
Round 4 Pick 22: Hill, BJ, DT, North Carolina State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 24: Jackson, JC, CB, Maryland (B+)
Round 6 Pick 35: Hill, Holton, CB, Texas (A+)
Round 7 Pick 15: Parris, Timon, OG, Stony Brook (A+)
Round 7 Pick 25: Townsend, Johnny, P, Florida (A+)

An earlier draft before first-pick updated the round 7 selections. In both examples, I traded back to get another pick.

Round 2 Pick 22: Jewell, Josey, ILB, Iowa (A)
Round 3 Pick 14: Settle, Tim, DT, Virginia Tech (A+)
Round 3 Pick 25 (TENN): Shepherd, Nathan, DT, Fort Hays State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 22: Bates III, Jessie, FS, Wake Forest (A)
Round 4 Pick 25 (TENN): Jackson, JC, CB, Maryland (B+)
Round 6 Pick 22: Ballage, Kalen, RB, Arizona State (A+)
Round 6 Pick 35: Litton, Chase, QB, Marshall (A+)

Or this one:

Round 2 Pick 22: Bryan, Taven, DT, Florida (A+)
Round 3 Pick 17 (DAL): Ragnow, Frank, C/OG, Arkansas (A)
Round 3 Pick 22: Gesicki, Mike, TE, Penn State (A-)
Round 4 Pick 16 (DAL): Blanding, Quin, FS, Virginia (A+)
Round 4 Pick 22: Jackson, Donte, CB, LSU (A+)
Round 6 Pick 22: Ballage, Kalen, RB, Arizona State (A+)
Round 6 Pick 35: Scott, JK, P, Alabama (A+)

In the latter two cases, the defense players from my draft board were not available to select. Then I was able to use picks to obtain Ragnow, Gesicki , and or QB Litton. Where possible the object is to strengthen the defensive depth.

My End Remarks… For Now

Since all this is speculation and we haven’t seen how Veach will approach finding player fits right now with Unsigned Free Agents followed by the Free Agent Sweepstakes, we can’t really know what he will do in the draft. However, I think my notes on the team’s needs on the defensive side of the ball are apropos. Of course, my hope of his actions prior to March 14 seem to be a given — if he is able to get anything done. I would like to see your own approaches to the upcoming free agent and draft situations.

David – 5 days of snow melt sequentially in the mountain west.

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