NSLU: An Offense for Sunday’s – A Gathering Storm

How much am I able to prove that the Chiefs offense is going to succeed out of the gate in 2018? I don’t think this can be done except to trust that Patrick Mahomes’ ability suspends judgement and the offense has the ability to be a “Perfect Storm” at season’s end.

Have the Chiefs done enough on Offense to get to be a top tier threat?

This is the question that appears to plague fans to a degree that is understandable. Hence it is my view that the Chiefs offense is going to be a “Gathering Storm.” The question marks are:

• Is Patrick Mahomes going to be ready for prime time and can he be as successful as Al Smith was in protecting the ball and advancing the chains and chances for victories in the post season?
• I must go with the prevailing judgment of the GM, HC and Coaching Staff. Their verdict? This is not a questioning of failure but of how high he will be able ascend in his first year under center for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Our ability to use statistics from prior performances is not going to be plausible. We will be able to use preseason performances as a guide on what to expect. Patrick Mahomes then is the first verdict that must be delayed until we see the team perform with him at the helm. It also depends on the tools he has available at his disposal. In that case, we must look at the next two question areas.

Fortifying the Receivers: Are there enough aerial tools to go beyond what Smith did in 2017, who had a top performing season with over 4,000 yards passing, only 5 picks, and two receivers with over 1,000 yards in the same season?

Beyond WR Roles: The Chiefs have not had two top WR threats since Reid assumed the mantle of Head Coach. Not only that, but the Chiefs did not have a true #1 WR until Tyreek Hill arrived and who succeeded in proving he can be a top tier threat against the NFL’s best. He fulfilled that in 2017. I can only see an ascension of a top #1 WR. Let’s go a step further: the Chiefs have not really had a top #2 possession receiver either. Yes, they did have Bowe but, he was used as a #1 WR so then it came down to several players filling the #2 role by committee.

Enter Sammy Watkins: this is why Brett Veach signed Watkins. He can be a #1 type receiver and he has fulfilled the possession role. But this is not where the Reid’s offense is going to use him: They are going to match the WR’s strengths against defenders weaknesses. It is true that Watkins has had injury but it is also true that he has been a top receiver none-the-less. I am able to see only success from these two roles.

Beyond Starting WRs: 2018 saw the release of Albert Wilson to Free Agency. We know from recent press material that Chris Conley is going to be ready to role. Yes, I know that this is where I disagree with critics – he had 11 catches, 175 yards into the 5^th game of 2017 when he was injured. I suggest as well that when considering the Targeting of WRs, Conley’s opportunities were quite limited. This is where I think Al Smith had his own blinders on.  It was about the time when Conley was injured that Smith found him for meaningful targets and yards. I do not think Patrick Mahomes is going to have a difficulty with any of the top 3 WRs.

Tight End Role: Travis Kelce, an outstanding Tight End had more than 1,000 yards receiving as did Hill. I do not question that he will provide the same level of play and that adds a 4^th threat as an aerial target.

Ground Game: Out of the Backfield? Kareem Hunt had a wonderful rookie year and it is my view that his ability to add a dimension to the offense both on the ground an as a receiver gives the Chiefs solid tools for the QB. Is there enough of a ground threat to keep the linebackers in check. Can the players that are RBs succeed on both the ground and in the air? Kareem Hunt brings it all and when Spencer Ware gets back, the two players offer a very convincing threat on the ground, blocking and receiver.

Offensive Line: Perhaps the most abiding question revolves around the offensive line – sufficient but no great shakes in 2017.

Center and Left Offensive Guard(LOG) are again the areas of concern. We know from nearly 2 weeks ago that Mitch Morse is unlikely to be ready to play in the season opener. This fact has had Reid and Co. substitute in Cam Erving for Offensive Center duty. Erving, for his part, is pleased with getting the opportunity. We cannot prove that he will be a success or even anticipate that he will not have struggles. On the other hand, from the inception to his time in Cleveland to his departure, he was never given a starting role and as a first round pick, his role and play was governed by mismanagement. Veach jumped in and acquired him and brought him to the kingdom with Reid’s complicated offense late in the off-season of 2017. He did succeed in sub-starting for LD-T when he was injured, and spotted in at other positions as needed.

The Verdict on Erving at Center remains a question as does that of who will be the starting LG. I will note that the mix of players is solid, with NFL experience Plus that of rookie McKenzie who appears to me to be a perfect physique for offensive guard. For this? We must wait for the pads and that is tough to do.

Again, I cannot conceive that this group of players not being able to achieve more than the roster did in 2017 with Al Smith. We know our Tackles are set and ROG is solid.  The rest has to play out in camp & Pre-season. Can I prove it? Nope. No numbers that exist can do that with the questions involve and outstanding verdicts… but will indeed give odds on it.

David Bell – NSLU

If you are viewing this in Apple News and would like to join the Discussion, [GO HERE.](http://arrowheadone.com/nslu-an-offense-for-sundays-a-gathering-storm/#disqus_thread)