NSLU Report: Brett Veach, a Rock and a Hard Place

I don’t think there are many of us who would disagree that the Chiefs have a weak point in the defense at the Outside Linebacker Position(OLB).

Today is no different than any other day as we watch with interest, or boredom, what has been called the “Underwear Olympics”. Brett Veach and Company have had a lot of preparations to complete before attendance and the trials at Indianapolis. I must admit that I am never prepared to answer the call for everything and though once I determine a weakness on the roster, I will dig into players, draft picks or free agents who would resolve the exposure… immediately first. I don’t worry much about leaping ability nor straight line speed. I can find the table for rankings. Nor do I pay much attention to the Bench Press, although strength in the arms and chest is important.

Mostly, I can think of nothing more boring than watching this without having a side conversation going about this or that number, and why this or that is important, especially for this group of players. Sitting at the house with the Combine broadcast on and no one to talk to gets to be quite tedious. At least for me.

SETTING UP THE EDGE

Before I even start, I am going to say that the Chiefs already know who will start opposite Justin Houston. These thoughts will be addressed in the conclusion. I have though, stated my view of this for perhaps 3 reasons. The Chiefs have need of an OLB who is a “two’s compliment” to Justin Houston and his ability to set the edge against the run, and more importantly, pressure the QB time and again, hit the QB time and again, and get to the QB for sack.

In order to set up the things to watch for while viewing the combine, Ransom Hawthorne gave us the items that analysts and pundits and the Combine obsessed are going to need to be looking for. He wrote: “….Look for similar strength and length requirements, to DL, but better broad jump numbers. Look for 10′ or better from these guys. OLBs also have to be more fluid than DL, and able to cover TEs. They need 3-cone drills of 7 seconds or better, and 40 times not slower than 4.8…” For a refresher or cross reference, see Ransom’s article at Arrowheadone.com called, “Information Overload: Combine Info For The Obsessed Chiefs Fan.”

Why the Broad jump? It feeds the power and quickness of the first step which for an OLB in the 3-4 defense is crucial. Pay particular attention then to the 40. Top end speed is going to be important and should fall in the acceptable range, but the time in the splits is of crucial importance at the 10 and 20 yard distances. I want to pick the OLB that is the tops in the 10 yard speed–explosiveness, out of the blocks so to speak.

Beyond this, strength is important but I don’t worry much about these men in that category. Rather, I would focus on their agility and short area quickness, whether it’s inside or outside. I want to see their numbers for 3 cone drill and short shuttle, both important tools for analyzing the players agility for: Stops-and-starts, Changes-of-direction and Short Area Quickness. Limb length, hand size and joint flexibility are important as well. Those measurements occur before the athlete takes the field but need to be a consideration as well as Length and Weight.

For these OLBs, the strength factor comes in when fending off blockers of course but also in gaining advantage against the outside blocker, usually an Offensive Tackle, or a Tight End. Therefore, as much as upper body — and strength in the chest — I am looking for anything indicative of fighting and gaining advantage with the hands. Also, does the player have a speed rush but also the agility to adjust, Bull Rush and spin? Etc.

For the latter factor I am going to want to review tape. These categories are not going to be found in the drills at the Combine or Pro Days. If the player makes the cut of being on or off my draft board, then I must take a look at where he is likely to be drafted. As long as I have feedback from the numbers game, I am going to use that, and tape, to make a determination of ranking. I will also use interviews of Head Coaches, position coaches and especially scouts who cover the area, both KC Chiefs scouts but also independent and trusted scouts as well.

NFL OLB RANKINGS

The following is a combined view of the ranking of OLBs so it is fairly accurate. Even if things shift between now and draft day, I cannot see a player dropping out of the Top 10. Or at least such a player is going to be falling due to “outside” reasons or another player or… climbing the chart due to expressly impressive numbers at the combine or a pro day. I only list nine.

In the 2018 draft, the first 3 players are taken in round 1. Even though I rank Key #7, I think he will also be selected in round 1, or early round 2. That is going to give the Chiefs a very limited selection in Turay who also will be a round 2 pick and probably too early for the Chiefs selection at 22. OO of OU is one of the intriguing players and Mata’afa is my sleeper pick… IF… the Chiefs took OLB as their first pick in the draft. I think Key is superior and will move up depending on who is vetting him and willing to manage any known difficulties with the player moving forward.

So there you have it. The top guys are gone, in my view, by the time KC Picks in the 2^nd round. Mata’afa is the only player after the top 3 and Key that I truly would want to consider, and this presumes Turay is not on the board at that time. I also want to see lower ranked players pushing this list – Carter, Hubbard or another consideration.

1. Harold Landry – Boston College
2. Bradley Chubb – NC State
3. Marcus Davenport – UTS
4. Tremaine Edmonds – VA Tech
5. Arden Key – LSU (Player ranked here due to behavior concerns)
6. Kemoko Turay – Rutgers
7. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo – Oklahoma (length questionable but outstanding drive)
8. Hercules Mata’afa -Washington State (my sleeper pick)
9. Duke Ejifor – Wake Forest
10.  Chad Thomas – Miami
11. Tyquan Lewis – Ohio St
12. Uchenna Nwosu – So Cal

The above probably has four impact players, Maybe five. Players can move up or down the list depending on the Combine and Pro Day performances. The chance to get one of the top 5 OLBs is not possible at the second round selection of the Chiefs. If it is not a player who can start out of the gate, it is not the right pick for Brett Veach. If you have a player you think can be in the Top 10, or should be, then post it in response to this article. If Veach wants an impact player, he would have to dicker with a round #1 GM and waste current year picks and a future round #1 pick to move up to obtain a potential impact player at OLB.

VEACH’S OLB DECISION?

Whether we as fans like it or not, it is doubtful that the right player with the right fit is going to be available for the Chiefs at this position in the draft – and therefore the wrong decision is to take a player at number 54 in the draft just because of need. My Pick? DL Mata’Afa but I want him in round 3 (late) or even round 4, neither of which do I believe will occur. I would not use an early round 3 pick on drafting him either, he is going to be at least a 2 year project we also have Tanoh Kpassagnon.

My basic understanding of players and abilities is that there is not a player who is going to fall to #54 who is also likely to make an immediate impact – which means my choice for the Chiefs first pick (#54)in the 2018 draft is not going to be an OLB.

IF NOT THE DRAFT, THEN WHAT?

The Chiefs have in-house players who play outside. So, who can take over at the apparent MIA, Dee Ford?

Tanoh Kpassagnon – We saw him spot in in 2017 but what we don’t know is how close to ready he is in terms of the ability to take on a starting role. In fact, we don’t know if the raw talent and strength the man possesses is going to ever translate to a starter. But we do know he is in his second season on the roster and I am anxious to see what he can do and what he is has ingested both in the 2017 season and since then.

Tamba Hali – Tamba Hali has had his last pay day with the Chiefs and will be released unless there is a miracle on the works.

Frank Zombo – I like this man as a player and he gives his all every play that he is on the field. He can spot in and play multiple roles and is also valuable on special teams. He is not a starter.

Editor’s Note: OLB Dadi Nicolas is hoping to get his shot but he’s played so little since he became a Kansas City Chief, it’s hard to project his future success.

OUR FAVORITE WHIPPING BOY

Now that Marcus Peters has departed AND Alex Smith has been traded away, we have what is the next most controversial player on the Chiefs Roster. Tell me if you do not agree? Some facts may be in order so that you can see why the Chiefs are going to keep Dee Ford despite the cost and despite the lack of performance that we all can agree is missing from the play of Dee Ford. We can debate until the cows come home about retaining Ford but since we don’t have a proven talent in house to take over the starting role, and since we are not going to be able to draft a top talent in the 2018 draft, that Brett Veach is likely not going to be able to improve on the just above journeyman like performance of the former #1 pick from Auburn.

Dee Ford as a number one pick was not able to become a starter until his third season in the NFL. In 2016 Ford had 10 sacks which was a reason to begin to have a hope that Ford would indeed be able to take over for Tamba Hali. What happened though, at the end of 2015, Ford was able to get on the field for most of the snaps in 5 games at the end of that season. Not only that, but Ford had a pass defense that sealed a win in the last contest of that season.

Next, take into consideration that John Dorsey explained that it took two to four years to develop the talent to play the position at a high level. Thus for me the 2 years began in late 2015 and was complete when he went to the IR in 2017. No more chances. He must perform or be gone. So dang it, Ford is hurt and we are going to run down to the physical he will take just prior to the final moments on 3.14.18. It is my view that he is not going to pass that physical, the Chiefs will be stuck with his $8.7m salary and our best hope then is that he will be able to take the field and begin to come back at the OTAs.

Lastly? Brett Veach himself has said the Chiefs, meaning he, himself, as well as the coaching staff, do not believe that Ford is a failure, and he did this by making positive statements about Ford and his “development”. I know, I am not going to be endearing by making these observations, and or calling attention to the facts preceding the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Yet they are a factor. It may be a fact that you felt you were giving Ford enough of a chance to prove himself but I am going to monkey wrench that with final thoughts.

SOME ENDING OBSERVATIONS

Since 2015, the Chiefs have not fielded the complimentary players that makes the pass rush work to high applicability and effect. Why? Late 2015, Ford gets on the field due to Houston being out and Poe showing the signs of the load Reid and Co. put on him (number of snaps) and his back injury had emerged as having a big effect on his performance. This is backed up by the Chiefs releasing Dontari Poe to Free Agency a year ago. In 2016, Houston was injured and while Houston was out, and then rehabbing, Ford had the load, but without Houston’s talent OR, without Tamba Hali’s. In 2016 and 2017, Hali was not available, or as much of a player, the force of Poe was missing from the equation, and though Chris Jones began to emerge as a force to be dealt with as a 34 or hybrid down lineman, the play opposite him was in decline. Too, the Chiefs had released Jaye Howard and for a similar reason, they are about to release Allen Bailey.

All of those things are a factor for the decreased performance in 2016 and 2017 – affecting the secondary to the extent that the corners had to cover WRs longer and the hybrid formations and linebacker drops changed the nature of the defense we were used to seeing through the 2015 season. You may not see the defense and the effect of these roster reductions but if you think about it and how that affects the pass rush, perhaps you can see things from Veach’s view.

• Dontari Poe – diminished play – 2015, release to F/A
• Jaye Howard – reduced performance, 2016 and not retained for 2017
• Allen Bailey – reduced performance in 2017, likely to be released before 2018’s pre-June 1 date.
• Ben Logan – Logan as a Free Agent was added in attempt to shore up the front 3 with the loss of Dontari Poe. It did not work.
• Justin Houston – Houston was affected with injury and rehab 2016 and 2017. Without Hali, that position was affected until his return to form. He had 10 sacks in 2017. For his contribution, he was affected by all the other factors plus Ford with an injured back, and Hali unable to take the field.
• Tamba Hali – little or no contribution at OLB as he had been previously able to do. This had an important effect because if if opposite Ford, his ability was curtailed (2016) and total lack of contribution in 2017. He is to be released (my prediction).

NSLU’S CONCLUSION?

The Chiefs will not find a solution for the OLB opposite Justin Houston in the draft: an impact, take over from the first snap, kind of player.

None of this is particularly a support of Dee Ford. At this point, I am completely frustrated by the situation. In 2016’s draft, I was calling for the Chiefs to draft DJ’s replacement and to find an OLB in the draft that could take over there as soon as possible. At the time, my concern was not so much Ford as Hali. Now it covers both it seems. The above is an explanation of how the interrelated positions affect the performance of players at the various positions. This inter-relatedness has affect on the over-all defense and it’s decline.

I am not pleased that Dee Ford could not live up to his round one draft status, nor force the issue and completely take over the role as a starter and put Hali as the number 3 OLB. The facts are the facts and Ford is not the guy Dorsey or anyone else thought he would be. At the same time Reid needs an experienced OLB on the field opposite Houston and Ford is very likely to be on the roster regardless – better to get him physically able to play as soon as possible. Why? There is no player who is a top rated OLB in the draft that is going to fall to the Chiefs #22 pick in the 2^nd round. The only other alternative is to sign a top free agent. It does not appear to me that Veach is giving us an indication that he believes he has an option to sign such a player.

I am not pleased with this situation. I think Veach is between a rock and hard place and it is no fault of his own.

David Bell – a NSLU Nederland view

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