Patrick Mahomes: An MVP Season? – What’s the saying, “Another day, another dollar.” Well, in the case of one Patrick Mahomes, it should be, “Another season, another MVP.” There’s another saying I like too, “It all comes down to a few plays.” In this case, those ‘few” plays would be the final drive of the game versus the Las Vegas Raiders. However, if we’re going to talk about the idea that Patrick Mahomes is having a MVP season, we should first consider that Andy Reid is having a Coach of the Year season.
If we’re going to focus on the way this game ended, let’s first take a look at the way it began. In a piece by Terez Paylor called, “Here’s what goes into Andy Reid’s scripted first 15 Chiefs plays” he interviews Louis Riddick, who once worked with Andy Reid. Here’s what Riddick says about those first 15 plays, so we’ll take a look at what Reid called on his first drive, Sunday night. It’s important to note that the Raiders had already scored the first touchdown of the game and led 7-to-0. Since the Chiefs first drive was 14 plays, that’s all I’ll cover here:
In Terez Paylor’s piece, he quotes Louis Riddick as saying this about Reid’s first 15 scripted plays,
“… it’s important to get your quarterback some easy completions to start with, if there is such a thing. Maybe you’re wanting to get over the top and send a message. Or maybe, because of nerves, you’re just wanting to let your offensive line screw their heels in the ground, and be able to fire off on somebody and run the ball.”
Here, Reid presents Gruden with a mixed bag of short passes (9) and running plays (5). He’s able to not only get his OL to “screw their heels in the ground” as Riddick suggests, but get some easy short completions as well. I’m sure that’s why Reid wanted to make sure he had at least five running plays slated to begin the game.
Riddick goes on to share that: “The second purpose is the critical gathering of intel.” So, in the first 14 play process, Reid is able to determine that the Raiders defense is going to play off man coverage bending towards the deep ball. IOW, they’re not going to allow Hill or Harmand to beat them deep on this day so Reid takes all the space underneath that Gruden will allow, and he turns it into 6, then 7, points.
Riddick also suggests that Reid — and his fellow coaches — are keeping tabs on what personnel their opposition is sending on the field for each down and distance situation. Consequently, I’ve highlighted the players and their positions that made the final play, on each of the Chiefs first 14 plays. Out of the 13 stops the Raiders got against the Chiefs on their first drive, 8 of those came at the hand of a DB… a corner or Safety. Paylor also interviewed Brad Childress about Reid’s use of the first 15 scripted plays who said:
“Let’s say in the rare instance he started the game with a run, we’d see what the backside [of the play] looks like, [whether] there’s a naked [bootleg] possibility….”
So, let’s take a look at the Chiefs first play from scrimmage vs the Raiders. Although it was a shovel pass to CEH to the right, the result is much like a running play:
There’s not much to see here. The Raiders Right DE stays home so it doesn’t look like Reid and the Chiefs would detect a weakness there. Paylor also quotes Childress as saying,
“Let’s say we’ve got a nosy safety, a guy running downhill, trying to get involved in the run game. Well, that gives you an opportunity to hit a downfield shot later in the game. Yeah, I’ve seen that happen many times off of motions we run and we say, ‘Hey, we’re gonna have a chance for this thing to hit later in the game.’
We saw Raiders Safety Johnathan Abram blitz once in this game, but I don’t think he did that again. That’s because Jon Gruden has learned not to tip his hand in any way that Brad Childress has suggested. So, now, if teams are going to send a Safety to run-blitz, you’ll likely only see that once in a game, and you’ll not see them give away anything that would forecast that they’re about to do so.
Reid and Listening
Paylor goes on to share that Andy Reid doesn’t have any plays locked into his first 15 and that players can veto if they like. A first 15 play is one that his QB can change if he likes. Or, cancel altogether. This only goes to shows that Reid likes to listen to all of his players and coaches alike.
Speaking of Reid’s QB
Patrick Mahomes has become a consistent QB. That’s high praise from where I come from, and meant to be. Is it high enough to put him on legitimate contention for another MVP this season? Let’s first consider some other NFl QBs: From a piece called “Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes Overtakes Everyone in 2020 MVP Race” at The Bleacher Report:
The Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers entered this weekend’s play as the league’s most efficient quarterback. But he missed multiple throws during a 34-31 overtime loss Sunday to the AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts.
They also mention Seattle QB, Russell Wilson:
“… most of this season, the Seattle Seahawks’ Russell Wilson had been built as the runaway favorite to capture the hardware. To be fair, the six-time Pro Bowl signal-caller played exceptionally well through the first five weeks. He then threw three interceptions during a Week 7 overtime loss to the rival Arizona Cardinals.”
I don’t know if any of you were watching Monday Night Football last night but, Tom Brady is no where near to MVP material. Then there’s 38 year old QB, Ben Roethlisberger, who plays for the only undefeated team in the NFL right now, the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s had a very good year, yet as the Bleacher Report says,
“… this isn’t college football. The highest-profile player on the best team doesn’t automatically get serious consideration for the game’s biggest individual prize.”
Plus, I couldn’t agree more with the Bleacher Report when they suggest:
“Mahomes is different. He isn’t simply a great quarterback; he’s the best overall player in a quarterback-driven league. His latest performance shows that no matter when, how or why the Chiefs are in trouble, all they have to do is get the ball in their franchise player’s hands and everything will be alright.
When they say, “get the ball in their franchise player’s hands and everything will be alright“… I assume they’re talking about the final drive vs the Raiders. The drive in which Mahomes was 6-of-7 passing. The drive that took 1:15 seconds off the clock… when he had 1:43 left. The drive that turned the game around and essentially gave K.C. the win, which was wrapped up when Safety Daniel Sorensen intercepted Derek Carr, to put a bow on top. The difference in the game? As Nick Wright has said, “One team has Patrick Mahomes, and, everyone else doesn’t.”
Seth Keysor has a piece out called, “Playing Chess: Patrick Mahomes Ruins the Raiders With his Mind Games” (subscription required) in which he suggests that Mahomes is out-thinking the rest of the league. Keysor first offers this gif, then explains:
“Mahomes had already ID’d where he was going when he dropped back thanks to his read of the defense, but he kept his feet square for a moment to keep the defense honest, then reset and fired. This sort of perfect read followed by perfect mechanics isn’t supposed to be Mahomes’ toolkit, but more and more as the games go by he’s become not just great at winning outside of structure, but winning the “right” way.”
Peter Schrager of Good Morning Football asks, did anyone believe the Chiefs weren’t going to win when they had the ball with just under two minutes to go versus the Raiders? To tell you the truth, I had to step away from the game because of a heart condition and the tension was too much for me:
Last night I asked Ryan Tracy of Rogue Analytics if Patrick Mahomes was the MVP and he said he agrees with me that Mahomes is the one. He and his partner, Dan Harms, brought up Arizona’s Kyler Murray because of his rushing ability… but we’ve seen where that’s gotten Lamar Jackson this year (last year’s MVP winner). It’s Patrick Mahomes trophy to lose at this point. That being said, it’s not the trophy I’m hoping that the Chiefs win this season… that would be, the Lombardi.
Dan Orlovsky made the point that the Chiefs had three 13+ play drives versus the Raiders and what that means is that the Chiefs can beat you by etching out a victory or by going deep and long. Perhpas my favorite quote of the year comes from Big Red, Andy Reid, himself:
“I’ve got Pat Mahomes. You give me a minute and a half, and I’m pretty good right there.”
So, let’s take a look at 4 of Mahomes’ throws on the Chiefs final drive in Las Vegas:
I’ll end with this breakdown of the Chiefs last play:
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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