Kansas City Chiefs Laddie Morse

Patrick Mahomes’ Numbers Could Decline but the Offense Will Be Better

LadnerMorse May 29, 2019 No Comments

by Laddie Morse | May 29, 2019

What was the biggest problem that the Chiefs offense had in 2018? “Problem you say?” I understand… you might think the Chiefs had the best offense in the NFL so what “problem” could they have? Well, they did have the best offense in 2018 but, they scored too fast. Can you see that as a problem? So, if Andy Reid spent the offseason fixing that “problem” then Patrick Mahomes’ numbers could decline but the offense will be better in 2019. Right? Right!

During last week’s media day on Thursday, Patrick Mahomes talked about getting better. He said:

“I learned that there is still a ton that I need to improve on. I made a lot of plays happen off-script last year, but there were times when I’d try to make those plays happen instead of just taking the easy completion for a first down.”

It’s standard procedure for any player to get better in the offseason. In fact, you might interpret that to mean Mahomes will improve in 2019. Yes, he could improve, but that might not mean his numbers get better.

I loved watching the offense score those long and deadly TDs passes. However, in so doing, the offense often put the defense right back out on the field. In the Chiefs five losses in 2018, they lost the time of possession battle in each of those games. In 4 of those contests combined, they lost that battle by a whopping 47+ minutes.

Although the Patrick Mahomes offense was excellent at creating chunk yards, it was not a ball control offense. In other words, Patrick Mahomes may not have applied all that he learned from Alex Smith and he needs to become more of… a game manager. By looking at the chart above, it’s easy to tell what opposing teams will be preparing to do vs the Chiefs in 2019: control the clock, control the ground game and make first downs.

The Chiefs defensive solution for that, this offseason, is to stop the run. You can also count on their defensive game plan to include Tyrann Mathieu jamming the box: he was 5th in the league among ranked Safeties vs the run last year (by Pro Football Focus). Plus, the Chiefs picked Khalen Saunders in the 3rd round.

However, it’s the offense that must make adjustments. Mahomes added this last Thursday:

“I have to keep finding that line between trying to make the big play happen and when I should just take the easy completion, move the chains, keep the offense on the field and keep rolling down the field.”

“… keep the offense on the field…” that’s a key.

We can’t expect Patrick Mahomes to mature into an experienced veteran after one season (and two offseasons) but, he’s already years beyond his age in terms of understanding the pro game. Some of that has to do with his photographic memory and some with his upbringing, being exposed to the big leagues with his dad.

Let’s not forget that the man who pounded the table for Patrick Mahomes on draft day, Brett Veach, once said this prior to the beginning of the 2017 season:

“Alex is our quarterback. Alex is so far advanced from the mental side of things in regards to his ability to read coverages, to shift to better plays and really play the chess game. He’s so far ahead of what Pat is.” 

Now, if the Chiefs offense is going to improve, it will be through maintaining possession of the ball, which also means playing the possession chess game. Although the 2018 game vs the Rams in L.A was not lost by a huge time of possession, the Chiefs inability to drive the field and run the clock down at the end led to another opportunity for the Rams to score. And winning.

The New England Patriots, were 2nd in the league in average time of possession. The L.A. Rams, were ranked 8th. Both were Super Bowl participants. Of the top 10 teams who had the best average time of possession, only 3 didn’t make the playoffs. The Chiefs were 26th in the league in ToP.

The Chiefs possessed the ball for 20:53 of the AFC Championship game vs the Patriots scoring all 31 of their points in the 2nd half, when they had to score fast to catch up. Scoring quickly was the Chiefs most potent weapon in 2018. However, scoring slowly may be their future weapon. 

 

The Chiefs averaged more points per game (35.3) than they did time of possession per game (29:01). Only one other team did that in 2018: the Los Angeles Rams. The Patriots beat them both while controlling the clock in each game.

It’s not that you can score… it’s when you can score.

While I’m convinced that Patrick Mahomes can control the clock with his receivers, with or without Tyreek Hill, I’m less sure about the running game. There are times when Andy Reid slips into his run-only habit with such high predictably that it jeopardizes game outcomes. That could be the Achilles heel of their new plan.

Mike Clay of ESPN researched a piece in which he uses a fatally flawed theory, “what goes up must come down” to project what happens next in Patrick Mahomes career. However, sometimes when something goes up, it’s just beginning to go up and no one knows how far it’ll actually keep rising. Here’s what Clay revealed:

While I can appreciate that the odds say Mahomes will come back to Earth this year, it will likely be by design. Coach Reid prepared “cut-up” highlights where PMII could improve and said, “You’ve got to be able to look at it in a humble manner and take it all in and correct it and he’s on a mission to do that.“ When asked about how he juggles Mahomes time between reviewing old tape and absorbing new plays, Reid said, “… we do keep a balance there. But we’re giving him new things to work with. He digests things easy, so we want to keep rolling.” Statements… all revealing that there’s a new design in the mix.

Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com says that it’s, “… inevitable that defensive coordinators facing the Chiefs will spend much of the offseason planning new wrinkles to throw at him.” Patrick Mahomes is also studying his failures and tendencies to make his own adjustments. Mike Florio responded,

 

“No, no, no, don’t take the easy completion. We want to see the spectacular play, right? Throw the ball down the field, throw the no-look pass, throw it with your left hand, do whatever you have to do, give us a highlight. There’s no highlight to come out of the dink-and-dunk. Think about that, that was his first season as a starter, and now he’s working his butt off to get better. Who knows where his ceiling is?”

To which Florio’s co-host, Chris Simms, replied,

“He’s one of the guys who can be in the conversation for one of the best Quarterbacks ever.”

In January, Terez Paylor wrote a piece for Yaho.com called, “How Patrick Mahomes’ redshirt year and Alex Smith led to a historic season” in which he quotes Brad Childress as saying:

“I just listen to him at the line of scrimmage and the calls he’s making and how he’s protecting himself and the snap counts he’s putting on and he really is, like, the master at the piano. Even though he’s gonna get better, you see him on the keyboard hitting the far left note and far right note.”

Patrick Mahomes still has notes to learn… and he’s doing that. One of the advantages of having a new defensive scheme… new defensive coaches… and new defenders… is that it helps prepare Mahomes for what he’ll face this Fall.

When you’ve got the strongest arm, and the fastest WR in the league at your disposal, it’s natural that you’d want to air it out every chance you were given. Well, the answer to that is, that the Chiefs were sent home while another team went on to the Super Bowl and in no small part due to the Chiefs inability to play small-ball.

Stretching the field is something I don’t expect to change in 2019, but perhaps not quite so often. If the Chiefs want to be able to win close games — and there will be plenty of those — then Patrick Mahomes must learn to stay in the pocket with more frequency and be happy with making, first downs first… and touchdowns later. It’s not like Mahomes hasn’t already been potent from the pocket:

If Mahomes really wants to remain a feared QB in the NFL, he’ll show that he can regulate and manipulate a game, and the clock. That’s the ultimate for a QB. When I think back to the days of Joe Montana, he could slice and dice, when the time was right, any time he wanted. If Mahomes is to go down as a great QB, he’ll have to integrate what Andy Reid is preaching and it sounds like he’s already bought in.

Beyond that, I hope that Chiefs fans are ready for Mahomes numbers to possibly decline, while he’s on his way to a championship. Now, if that happens, I won’t mind at all. How about you?

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

 

 

 

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